This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[CumbrianLefty]

BoJo faces the music in the Commons today (though he seems to have dodged PMQs tomorrow)

Bets currently being taken on who the most embarrassingly lickspittle Tory backbencher will be.

[CumbrianLefty]

Despite some speculation to the contrary, Johnson has actually turned up to do PMQs today - and its gone about as well for him as you might expect all told.

Still don't think he is safe if the locals and Wakefield are really bad.

[CumbrianLefty]

Latest polling shows that 95% of Labour supporters - and *97*% of LibDems - think that Johnson lied over Partygate. This sort of unanimity is rare in surveys, even for opponents of a person/party.

(and only 17% of Tories are willing to definitely say he didn't, almost as noteworthy)

[CumbrianLefty]

Heh, quite a few of them probably think Vote UK is a dangerous subversive left wing site.

[CumbrianLefty]

A quick cabinet reshuffle now being touted as an option for BoJo if this week's results are indeed as bad as some Tories are now genuinely starting to fear.

But who to promote who is both a) actually good and b) sufficiently loyal?

[CumbrianLefty]

Javid would be a front runner to replace Sunak if he hadn't walked out on the job once before.

[CumbrianLefty]

Williamson must have so much dirt on his fellow Tories, mustn't he

[CumbrianLefty]

She even went to the Open University.

To be clear, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

[CumbrianLefty]

Wait Gavin Williamson was whining about not attending the Queen's funeral? What a hilariously petty drama this is

Never great optics when you make Nadine Dorries look good in comparison.

[CumbrianLefty]

It was indeed a poor Tory result - and partly caused by local party dissatisfaction with the candidate - but the subsequent trajectory of the seat suggests that wasn't the only factor.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think it was one of PM Wilson's most inspired ideas, and has more than proved its worth since.

[CumbrianLefty]

And he duly went a few hours later, still denying that he actually did anything wrong.

[CumbrianLefty]

It was, remarkably, the first Tory gain from Labour in a Westminster byelection for 30 years.

[CumbrianLefty]

They really were a complete crank and no mistake

[CumbrianLefty]

You might have thought he would actually have been charged with something by now....

[CumbrianLefty]

A claim today that he wants the top NATO job

[CumbrianLefty]

If this is real, it'll be a tad ironic, given that Benton (someone who's gone full culture warrior, and railed against both "cultural marxism" and "cancel culture") will now have been "cancelled" himself.

It seems real enough, however several signatories are apparently based in the other Blackpool seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

The 10% swing in neighbouring Stretford/Urmston in the byelection at the end of 2022 would easily be enough to turn Brady's seat red. He's anyway had a pretty good innings too.

[CumbrianLefty]

It *is* pretty safe, but not super-duper safe. As with many other Midlands seats outside the big cities, the last GE probably overstated the "base" Tory strength somewhat.

[CumbrianLefty]

By showing some basic competence (though I wouldn't overstate it, as some pundits are now doing) Sunak has maybe bought a respite until at least 2024, even if May's local elections are pretty bad.

If they are and next year's local polls are also a drubbing, however - something could still happen.

He's not totally safe until a late 2024 GE (which remains the likeliest date) just yet.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thought this had happened already?

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, you all have your popcorn at the ready for tomorrow I hope.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another retirement - Stuart Anderson, in Wolverhampton South West (majority of 1,661).

An odd seat, in that Labour gained it in 2015, then lost it in 2017 (by a larger margin than they would obtain in 2019).

Anderson has only been an MP since 2019, and has been a whip since Johnson’s caretaker government last year.

I think you meant to write won? It’s Rob Marris’s old seat. A weird one in that it’s had a different person elected at each election since 2005 (non consecutively Marris in 2005 & 2015) and 5 different MP’s since ‘97.

Its Labour MP in 1997, Jenny Jones, was one of a handful of one termers in that intake.

(and even fewer did so through choice, as she did)

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, crime as a political issue. It is back.

Which is rarely good news for the governing party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well if the next GE is indeed anything like 1997 some of them will lose their new "safer" seats as well.