UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

They slightly overstated the Tory win in 1979 too, on the whole.

Elections where they were commendably close were 1987, 2005 and (remarkably) 2019.

There was a moment in the 1979 campaign when Callaghan was told (I forget by whom) that Labour could win the election. He replied "I'm afraid we might." This exchange may have been caused by a poll released, I think, the weekend before the election showing a small Labour lead.

That poll was a complete outlier, though - many even in the closing stages of the campaign gave a Tory lead of 10-15 points (they actually won by about 7)

[CumbrianLefty]

Out of interest where has the weird trend come from about looking at raw vote totals rather than vote share?

I've heard a lot of political commentators, even the non-hacks, basically repeat rubbish such as 'well Labours raw vote barely went up so there isn't any enthusiasm'- yet even when I did my A-levels I knew that by elections always had lower turnout...

CCHQ and the leadership of the employers of those commentators.

Actually, it is driven at least as much by the other wing of politics.

After the Wakefield byelection, for example, online Corbynistas got #Laboursworstsince1931 (or similar) trending on Twitter, this was of course a reference to their numerical vote and nothing else.

Some of those who propagate this meme are simply thick, but others are actively mendacious.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour was only really doomed pre-1979 by the Winter of Discontent, prior to that polling confirmed that they were at least in with a chance.

And it is even less true that the first 1974 GE was "predetermined" - as already mentioned upthread the consensus in the preceding months was that the Tories were likely to win again and the surges for both the Liberals and Scottish/Welsh Nats seemed to hurt Labour more if anything.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank you, that makes a great deal of sense.

The 3 day week and the Winter of Discontent where the cherries on the top.

In the early 1970's the Conservatives where split in fierce internal fighting over Eurore (as usual), Labour took advantage of that to promise a Referendum (sounds familiar?) :

https://www.nytimes.com/1974/02/24/archives/enoch-powell-a-key-tory-suggests-foes-of-market-should-vote-for.html

"In a move that angered Conservative party leaders in this decisive week of the election campaign, Enoch Powell, the party's controversial maverick, suggested today that Britons opposed to the Common Market should vote for the Labor party on Thursday."

The 1979 GE was determined here:

It was a national humiliation, and a confession by the Labour Government then that they couldn't Govern.
The IMF Austerity made a mess, and led to fierce Labour internal fighting and to the Winter of Discontent.

Labour were actually more divided than the Tories regarding Europe in the early 1970s (both in terms of their MPs - as shown in the votes to enter - and the wider membership) That is maybe the principal reason why Wilson swung behind a referendum - it papered over that division quite well. And carrying off the 1975 effort successfully was arguably his last significant achievement as PM.

Yes the 1976 IMF episode was a national humiliation, and Labour suffered for it electorally for quite a while - but two years later they seemed to have recovered fairly well. Yes, they might have lost had Callaghan stuck to his initial instincts and called a late 1978 GE - but it could have been less emphatic and with no WoD the longer term fallout for the party is likely nowhere near as toxic.

(whereas in our timeline, the events of 1978-79 were still used successfully by the Tories as late as the 1992 GE - when images of rubbish piling up and undug graves continued to feature in their PPBs, and people on the doorstep still cited it as a reason for not voting Labour)

[CumbrianLefty]

If by some chance it did happen though, the LibDems came just a handful of votes behind Labour last time (which wasn't the case in Mid Beds) and would surely fancy their chances.

Though the thought of Labour getting their first ever MP unequivocally in Surrey would be something as well - they did win Spelthorne in 1945 but it then included large areas now in Greater London.

(and was, of course, part of Middlesex then anyway)

[CumbrianLefty]

There's no way they can hold it off if they are going for a GE later than May, surely.

Its even possible that Sunak may want it (and possibly Blackpool South) to go ahead in Feb/March so that he can see whether going in the middle of the year isn't totally hopeless after all.

[CumbrianLefty]

And it now appears very likely there will be a byelection in Blackpool South as well, if the government doesn't go to the country by next May (or earlier)

[CumbrianLefty]

Appeals seem to be quite swiftly dealt with when it is an open and shut case, though - that was certainly the case with Ferrier. So it is unlikely Benton will drag things out that much further and his appeal is set to be heard soon after parliament reconvenes next month.

So it should still be possible to have a byelection (intervening GE permitting) in May if not earlier.

[CumbrianLefty]

Very telling that it’s basically assumed labour will easily win a seat with an 18K Tory majority in a heavily leave area.

Though it did vote Labour in 1997 and 2001, before narrowly going Tory in 2005.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apart from the rigged one, every recall petition has easily passed. Is this a good thing? I'm of two minds.

I wasn't totally sold on recall when it was proposed, but on balance it has been a good thing - and one of the parts of our political system that works reasonably well (in contrast to other aspects just now)

Its advocates actually hope that over time the number of recall byelections will decrease as their just being there has a deterrent effect on MPs. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Why has there been a reduction in the number of MPs resigning to take ‘big jobs’?

They’re doing f*uck-all right now and getting paid for it. Why go for a job that requires “actual work”?

The sort of "big jobs" beloved of ex-Tory MPs in particular don't always involve this tbf

[CumbrianLefty]

I do suspect the Tory vote in Blackpool will hold up a bit better than that.

(and this year's local elections back that up)

[CumbrianLefty]

Though if he still has (despite everything) something of a personal vote in the seat, you can sort of understand their reasoning.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kilfedder actually died in spring 1995 shortly followed by his micro-party, and the resulting byelection returned an MP who was less reliable for the Tories (at least at that time)

[CumbrianLefty]

Labours move is made harder by the fact the Bristol NE PPC is currently the Mayor of Lewisham (he grew up in Bristol and beat the v unpopular mayor of Bristol in the selection) and it’s rumoured that Dan Norris might run against Mogg- he’s the current mayor of the south west and is (I assume) up for re-election.

So might be tempting for labour to find some staffer or councillor to run as a placeholder…

Norris is not due for re-election until 2025.

Labour might do better to look for someone who will stand firstly in this byelection and then in the redrawn NE Somerset, which will take in about a third of the current Kingswood. Yes this means some of the latter membership won't get to choose their candidate this time round, but something like that may be unavoidable in the circumstances.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labours move is made harder by the fact the Bristol NE PPC is currently the Mayor of Lewisham (he grew up in Bristol and beat the v unpopular mayor of Bristol in the selection) and it’s rumoured that Dan Norris might run against Mogg- he’s the current mayor of the south west and is (I assume) up for re-election.

So might be tempting for labour to find some staffer or councillor to run as a placeholder…

Norris is not due for re-election until 2025.

Labour might do better to look for someone who will stand firstly in this byelection and then in the redrawn NE Somerset, which will take in about a third of the current Kingswood. Yes this means some of the latter membership won't get to choose their candidate this time round, but something like that may be unavoidable in the circumstances.

I thought that the reason for the mention of Norris was that there had already been a suggestion that he might stand against Rees-Mogg in NE Somerset & Hanham. He was MP for the old Wansdyke constituency, which was the predecessor to Rees-Mogg's current seat but also included some areas on the Gloucestershire side of the Avon.  (Bizarrely, the 1983-97 version extended as far north as Emersons Green and almost to Frenchay, though Norris took over in 1997 when it only included Bitton and Hanham Abbots, immediately north of the river.)

PS Skidmore wrote to Jeremy Hunt today formally resigningrequesting appointment to Northstead or the Chiltern Hundreds.

I know, but the fact he is in his current post until 2025 could complicate things there. Has he shown any indications whether he will stand again or not?

[CumbrianLefty]

Deadline for nominations is the coming Friday, quite a tight timetable.

[CumbrianLefty]

How come the two are different if they are polling on the same day?

[CumbrianLefty]

I do wonder if this Reform "u-turn" is at least partly caused by their original decision not to run being spun by some as a possible 2019-style deal with the Tories at the GE still being on.

And this is intended to put a damper on that?

[CumbrianLefty]

If a GE doesn't intervene first, there will also now be a byelection in Rochdale.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will the Tories carry on as in 2019 and select a Muslim candidate in Rochdale if Labour don't? However opportunistically, they might hope to exploit local unease over the Middle East that way.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think it was accepted as being even more of a photo-finish than in 2005, yes. IIRC the final "official" estimate had it as Labour by 50 votes or something like that, so in reality it was too close to call.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbh that shortlist looks rather good for him, whether by accident or design - and I do suspect that the decision not to include any *local* councillors was deliberate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour doing some expectations management with Kingswood, it seems.

[CumbrianLefty]

with how by elections have been going lately i just assume Labour will win them. the big question is do they hold these constituencies at the next general election?

Assuming they do win the by-elections I think Labour will get a small boost in the general election, but only a small one. They didn't hold Corby in 2015, and they also didn't hold any of their gains in the 1987-92 Parliament at the 1992 election, though they did come very close in Vale of Glamorgan.

Yes, but those were elections Labour LOST.

Unless you think that is going to happen again, something like 1997 might be a better comparison - when the Tories recouped just a single one of their byelection defeats (Christchurch)