Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[CumbrianLefty]

Almost like its the Mengistu days all over again!

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s looking like things are spiraling out of control. A regional war of Eritrea and Ethiopia vs Sudan and Egypt might start.

Well, those two on the same side would be a contrast to recently.

[CumbrianLefty]

Shades of Yugoslavia?

Ethiopia has effectively fallen apart before (the "Age Of Princes")

[CumbrianLefty]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

I doubt TPLF and their OLA allies have the ambition to completely take over Ethiopia completely like in 1991.  I think their plan is to stop outside Addis Ababa and then try to work out a deal for autonomy or even independence for Tigray.  I agree after that they might try to exact some revenge for what Eritrean forces did during their occupation of Northern Tigray last year and earlier this year.  I suspect those operations will be limited as well.  I am not sure how much material basis Tigray has to continue fighting like this.

I seriously doubt that they wouldn’t try and retake Eritrea for revenge and to finally get some peace of mind. The very existence of Eritrea will forever be an existential threat for them.

That is surely unsustainable, though. Eritrean people may not all like their government (and with good reason) but almost none think it is a good idea to become part of Ethiopia again.

[CumbrianLefty]

And again, its been at least formally united in pretty much its present form for around a millennium.

[CumbrianLefty]

And again, its been at least formally united in pretty much its present form for around a millennium.

How is that relevant. Austria-Hungary was also relatively united. And I don't think being under an Amharic woke constitutes being "united".

On the most generous reading, Austria-Hungary lasted barely a century.

[CumbrianLefty]

What's the odds on this peace deal lasting? Maybe not so great.