2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[CumbrianLefty]

There has also been a seeming outlier poll putting Labour "only" about 10 points ahead?

Curia (National’s in house pollster) has a poll out from a few days ago with Labour at 47, National at 36, Greens at 6, and ACT at 3. Funny how that’s 1% above the result Collins had previously said would be the end of her leadership.

I'm sure that is a complete coincidence. Not

[CumbrianLefty]

With recent cases of community transmission of Covid-19 in Auckland, there is now doubt over whether the election will go ahead as planned on 19 September. Judith Collins has called for the election to be delayed until November or even next year

As you say, absolutely no self-interest involved there

[CumbrianLefty]

Latest virus outbreak is now up to around 15 cases and climbing.

Hopefully the swift action taken will stop it spreading that much further.

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the changes on that poll compared with the last election?

[CumbrianLefty]

Though there *may* be an element of some left leaning voters thinking it is now "safe" to vote Green, given the continuing large Labour lead?

[CumbrianLefty]

The delay may prove to be fortuitous for the Greens if people forget about the school scandal by mid-October rather than the Saturday after next.

Sorry, but what is this?

[CumbrianLefty]

Surely the major banana skin now is another significant flare-up before polling day?

[CumbrianLefty]

New Colmar Brunton poll;
Labour-48% (-5%)
National-31% (-1%)
ACT-7%(+2%)
Green-6%(+1%)
NZ First-2%(_)

That comes out as a Labour majority.

Preferred PM; Jacinda Ardern 54% (_), Judith Collins 18% (-1%)

If those PM numbers hold up, hard to see anything other than a big Labour win.

[CumbrianLefty]

Said it before, I don't think the Nationals ever really came to terms with losing power.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ardern's support was always massively overblown ...

As if Conservatives suddenly decided to vote Labour in droves ...

Never likely Labour were going to score anything like 60% in an actual election, agreed.

But it is still possible the Nationals could be heading for a historic drubbing.

And if so, it would be *totally* deserved.

[CumbrianLefty]

Here's hoping

[CumbrianLefty]

Lol, 'strong team'.
National MPs leaking against Collins, accuse her of "making up policy on the hoof"

A National MP has told 1 NEWS the party hasn’t had a caucus call or poll result for weeks and says there is a culture issue in the party.

The MP told 1 NEWS Judith Collins has “bullied” MP Denise Lee and hasn’t brought the caucus together.

It comes after an email leaked to Newshub showed National's Auckland Council spokesperson Denise Lee criticising a National policy to review Auckland Council.

Lee called it a "highly problematic idea", a "nightmare" and "another working group", and said bypassing her was "incredibly poor form and displays a shockingly bad example of poor culture", while another National Party member said Collins was consistently "making up policy on the hoof" and creating division.

Well, they seem confident.

[CumbrianLefty]

Given the continuing clown car that is the Nationals, a swing back to Labour in the final days (giving them very possibly an overall majority) can't be ruled out.

[CumbrianLefty]

There was also a clear trend towards early voting in previous elections, though. As with other things, the virus has often accelerated developments that were already happening.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the Green figure at least seems to be "herding" in those two polls.

[CumbrianLefty]

Finally, a bit of good news in 2020

[CumbrianLefty]

Impressive. Some interesting electorate results - Rangitata (the largest town of which is Timaru) flipping is interesting, because that's real Old Labour (so to speak) territory.

Is that the Maori win?

[CumbrianLefty]

In many ways, a victory for nothing. Probably the least consequential government since Shipley. And yet a landslide for a Jacinda-centric campaign.

Blimmin heck pal, where's the gif of that young boy blowing all those birthday candles out?

[CumbrianLefty]

When can we expect some referendum news?

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, cheers

[CumbrianLefty]

Lol Jacinda only reveals now that she voted Yes on cannabis. It was disappointing that she didn't make any effort on it, maybe the result would have been different.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300145410/live-referendum-results-how-did-nz-vote-on-euthanasia-and-cannabis

Alternatively it might have led to Labour winning a few less seats in the GE.

(without necessarily turning round the vote on pot)

For me this confirms that referendums should be "stand alone" events if possible.

[CumbrianLefty]

France used to have seven year terms for their presidency - that's pretty unthinkable these days.

[CumbrianLefty]

Any significant election changes with the "late" votes added, then?

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour broke 50%, reaching 50.01% lol

As one D J Trump might put it - "ITS A FIX!!!"

[CumbrianLefty]

So that one is just a matter of time?