2020 Labour Leadership Election

[CumbrianLefty]

Jess Phillips promising "a big announcement" soon, apparently.

Let joy be unconfined.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ian Lavery not even mentioned?

Nandy must be disappointed with that score too.

(also a useful reminder that there is a strong likelihood nobody will get 50% on the first round this time - transfers could yet be highly significant)

[CumbrianLefty]

There were also quite a few 1Corbyn 2Kendall ballot papers in 2015, for sure.

(though that and indeed the opposite maybe shouldn't surprise given that the latter's campaign also had something of an "anti-establishment" vibe)

And if the polls carry on as above you don't need to worry about voting for Rayner as deputy - her and Starmer might form quite an effective team.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will anybody actually notice?

Seriously, it seems the only people still boosting her are in the media. Even most Labour right wingers have, it appears, moved on to other things.

[CumbrianLefty]

Really? Her recognition ratings amongst "ordinary" voters aren't that great.

That video is well put together, but its still mostly "me me me".

[CumbrianLefty]

Really? Her recognition ratings amongst "ordinary" voters aren't that great.

That video is well put together, but its still mostly "me me me".

Not in terms of that- I just think if she spends 2 hours on a stage with Starmer, Nandy and Long-Bailey she has the best chance of appearing human, and not just talking in the usual labour party management talk.

Of course part of this is a crafted routine; but I feel there's a chance she could do a lot better than a lot of people inside the party thing (or equally a lot worse)

Trouble is, even accepting that she is still very capable of spectacularly messing the whole thing up.

[CumbrianLefty]

Really? Her recognition ratings amongst "ordinary" voters aren't that great.

That video is well put together, but its still mostly "me me me".

Not in terms of that- I just think if she spends 2 hours on a stage with Starmer, Nandy and Long-Bailey she has the best chance of appearing human, and not just talking in the usual labour party management talk.

Of course part of this is a crafted routine; but I feel there's a chance she could do a lot better than a lot of people inside the party thing (or equally a lot worse)

Trouble is, even accepting that she is still very capable of spectacularly messing the whole thing up.

Oh of course; we are playing with fire by giving the keys to the 2015 intake.

FWIW whatever rump of the Progress faction is left in the PLP appears to be backing Jess- Peter Kyle, Neil Coyle and Wes Streeting have all came out in support of her (all part of the same intake) and all very much so on the right of the party.

Interesting in that she isn't a candidate of the right; although I think this is more a case of the right being so fractured, so demoralised and frankly not willing to get 2% of the vote again; much like with Corbyn's team backing Thornberry in 2017 Jess is simply the strongest person running who gives them a vague chance of influence.

I'll leave Al's impression of her for a good laugh...

One could try to place Phillips in to an ideological or factional bracket, but this would be an error. She is primarily a gadfly. Very hostile to the present leadership and with a famously bad relationship with just about everyone even vaguely associated with it. She does have a genuine popular following of sorts, though how many presently have a vote I'm not sure. Still, beware of the power of Mumsnet. If they put their collective Will to it I'm sure they could do entryism better than Trots or even the Canadian wing of the SAD. Phillips likes to imply that she comes from a working class background, but she doesn't. She is, however, most definitely a Brummie, and while the focus has been on Labour's poor performance in the North of England, results in the Midlands were even more disturbing.

Sorry, what?

I see that Nandy has also launched her campaign btw - and she arguably "speaks human" at least as well as "Our Jess" does. Having said that, surely none of the likely candidates this time (no, not even Starmer) will be as appallingly robotic on the hustings as D Miliband so notoriously was in 2010.

(a key reason why he "unexpectedly" lost IMO)

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, on that point at least I am in agreement; if they have any political nous Starmer's people will be - behind the scenes of course, they can't make it *too* obvious - moving heaven and earth to ensure that Phillips actually gets on the ballot. If they had a particularly twisted sense of humour, they could even claim they were acting to "broaden the debate" if asked

[CumbrianLefty]

Though that is partly because quite a few Blairites supported other candidates then (Dan Hodges dumping Kendall for Cooper was a definite canary in the coalmine there)

[CumbrianLefty]

I was at Wapping that night too as it happens, still the closest I have ever come to being nicked.

[CumbrianLefty]

If I had a vote he'd have it with a moment's hesitation. I don't though and I suspect people like me not being able to vote for him might be his achilles heel.

In any case, he has my endorsement.

Weren't you supporting Phillips yesterday?

[CumbrianLefty]

Actually no, you didn't

Fair play.

[CumbrianLefty]

Those survey figures make sense; we know that Starmer is well-liked by Labour members, we know that a certain proportion will back a cheese sandwich if said sandwich is seen as the 'official' Left candidate, we know that Thornberry is respected but not liked, that Cooper is seen as yesterday's woman, and the rest is basically name recognition.

Alternatively, vigorously opposing small-minded Brexiteerism wasn't and isn't just a flash in the Labour pan but is actually at the heart of the party's political identity. I think an understated number of Labour people feel that Corbyn's weird fence-straddling on the issue not only didn't help win many Leave constituencies, but it didn't help prevent Britain from trading its global standing and societal openness for atavistic Brexit knuckle-dragging. The idea that this is primarily a Blairite/Corbynite civil war is actually overstated, because the Blairites lost and lost badly and the party is a Corbynite party. For many Starmer presents an opportunity to do Corbynism in a competitive, credible, and more firmly European way. Frankly, they seem exactly right about that.

Bless.

It was Labour, particularly the left of the party, that opposed the European Community in the first place. It was the Tories from Heath onwards who were fans. Being pro-EU was quintessentially a Blairite/New Labour project, it has nothing to do with the traditional left in this country.

Besides I have bad news for you, Starmer said today Remain is dead.

Even the LibDems aren't *that* likely to be running on a "rejoin" platform come 2024.

[CumbrianLefty]

That is a completely different question, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

On the contrary, that's what they should do. Labour hasn't won an election since Tony Blair led the party and before that, their last win was in the 1970's. Love it or hate it, neoliberalism allowed them to gain large majorities in Parliament under Blair. If Labour is smart, they will move to the center.

New Labour was not what you think it was. The point was to advance towards socialist goals through market mechanisms and to sell this with a certain populist panache. The biggest promise of all was to save the welfare state, to improve other public services and to tackle persistent social problems through a massive injection of cash to be extracted, in the first instance, from a windfall tax on the profits of questionably privatised utilities!

Tony Blair disagrees with that right now.

Blair has drifted well to the right since leaving office.

As has what we call "Blairism".

[CumbrianLefty]

Um, maybe she said that *because* of the (utterly ridiculous) way many reacted to Corbyn's 7/10 EU line?

(IMO it was actually one of the *very* few things said on the "remain" side during that wretched 2016 campaign that actually resonated with the voters that needed to be won over from leave - but never mind that, JEMERY CROBYN BAD and that's all that ever mattered with most of our "opinion formers")

[CumbrianLefty]

Have to say, slightly surprised that McDonnell is backing the dismal Burgon for deputy.

[CumbrianLefty]

A Labour friend made the following list:

1) Nandy
2) thornberry
3) starmer
4) embrace the destruction of all life on earth
5) lewis / phillips
6) resign membership
7) RLB
Thanos
9) lavery

Discuss with maps.

Not quite worked out my own order yet, save for having Phillips in the Lavery position here

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, one of those points at least may be debatable if you believe the seemingly well sourced accounts that Rayner didn't actually *want* to stand for leader (to the regret of myself and several others) or not on this occasion at least.

And its not hard to think of reasons why that might be the case tbh.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Labour Party is in a  bad way isn't?

It has been in better health.

And, on occasions, worse.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Labour Party is in a  bad way isn't?

It has been in better health.

And, on occasions, worse.

Being in coalition during WW3 will set it up well for two generations.

Brings a new meaning to leaders hunkering down in their bunker......

[CumbrianLefty]

IIRC the deputy vote went something like 13 Rayner/6 Burgon/1 Butler. So not really all that close, which is maybe encouraging given how much fundamentalist Corbynism dislikes AR (wrongly in my view)

Support for RLB as leader was unanimous - so not even a token vote for Lewis never mind Starmer.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kremlinology of this; this is pretty much what we expected. Momentum were set up solely for this purpose; to ensure that Jeremy losing didn't see the end of his project.

As always there is a difference between who Momentum activists endorse & who Momentum Members (of which there's 30K) vote for- I expect this is being done quickly so they can get organising for CLPs and ballot. (One underappreciated thing is that a winter leadership election after a general election will make it harder to get people to engage & it's on a shorter timescale than usual)

Apparently there were some votes for Burgon; who both Abbott & McDonnell have backed. If RLB is proof a below average politician can get pushed up by a faction, then Burgon is proof that some people will try and put the village dunce in power.

Is it? Looks pretty similar to 2015 and 2016 to me.

(indeed, complaints that it is all taking too long appear to be more common)

[CumbrianLefty]

Nominations amongst Labour MPs close in about two hours. If at least Dawn Butler doesn't make the cut for DL, a large number of people will not be happy (myself included, even though I want Rayner)

[CumbrianLefty]

Lewis has dropped out, unclear if Thornberry is going to make it. All the Deputy Leader candidates seem to have made it, sadly.

Wonder who you are referring to there

Of course all candidates who have made it thus far now have the second stage - a sufficient number of afflliate/CLP nominations - to negotiate before they actually get onto the ballot.