UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[CumbrianLefty]

Starmer did indeed seem to be hinting as much this morning - stop no deal (on Oct 31 at least) and then push for a GE with prime minister Cummings Johnson suitably humbled.

[CumbrianLefty]

To put it another way, after this week's events only a tiny hardcore alt-centrist #FBPE minority still see Corbyn as a bigger enemy than Johnson now.

Nobody ever saw him as a bigger enemy. Just an enemy. And that has absolutely not changed.

Sorry, this is just not true.

Several self-declared centrists - including some very prominent ones - were quite explicit that they would rather have the Tories continue in office than a Corbyn-led Labour take power.

[CumbrianLefty]

I will say, again, that the recent tactics of Cummings Johnson have significantly united an opposition that had - as others said - become badly fractured since the 2017 GE.

(I mean "opposition" as in anti-Toryism more generally rather than the Labour party - though it could well be true there also, Watson and others have been notably low key in recent days)

[CumbrianLefty]

Very striking poll for NI just released, btw. Big gains for the Alliance Party who are now a strong third place, both of the "big two" clearly down on 2017, the old "big two" (UUP/SDLP) nowhere.

[CumbrianLefty]

Have to say Boris has played this great.

He’s talking with all the bluster of a confident leader that’s gung ho on a No Deal if need be, thus weakening the Brexit Party DRAMATICALLY. Now he seems primed to call an election with a weakened Labour, a handcuffed Brexit party: He’s going to thread the needle to a majority

Must ... not ... feed ... trolls ...

What of the things I said insinuates I’m a troll?

Especially considering this...

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1168546988205518850

A poll that shows the Tories *losing* seats on 2017?

(when they were already at almost the bare minimum to govern)

And in a GE campaign "Boris" won't be able to hog the media coverage as he has until now.

[CumbrianLefty]

I agree, and arguably it makes such a thing more admirable.

(presuming that Lee knows that he has little chance of re-election in his new colours)

[CumbrianLefty]

There are now more Independent MPs (of various descriptors) than at any time since the modern party system emerged in parliament over two centuries ago. There are 40 such MPs even if you exclude Elphicke, which means they overtake the SNP as the third biggest group in the HoC.

[CumbrianLefty]

There seems to be a bit of a dangerous assumption among those who supported this Bill that the EU would automatically approve another extension. The Bill takes this as a given - it is not. If there is a clear prospect of an alternative Government coming to power (which, according to polling there isnt) or a second referendum, then yes they would likely, but otherwise I have my doubts. The idea of renegotiating with Mr.Johnson is a obvious farce at this point. Very many people in the EU, chiefly the French, want this over as soon as possible, even if that means no-deal.
It would be very ironic if the EU were the ones forcibly delivering the referendum result, against the will of the "traitors" in the UK parliament. I wonder what the Brexiteers would say then.

It looks like there will be a general election very soon though and the outcome is unpredictable so the EU probably should grant an extension.

Whatever they may say, it is inconceivable the EU won't grant an extension if a GE is called soon. And they certainly won't be foolish enough to uncritically believe opinion polls after 2017.

[CumbrianLefty]

(1) Boris could threaten to deny Royal Assent for the no-deal bill, until an election has been called, which Labour wont call until royal assent has been granted.  

Didn't know it works like this. So basically the Prime Minister can deny Royal Assent to a bill that was passed by the Commons?

Technically yes, provided the Queen follows his advice, just like porogation, but it would be a massive outrage (even bigger than porogation) and constitutional crisis. (Not that his supporters would care much)

But most other people would.

There has been a fair bit of comment that the UK simply staying in the EU without at least another referendum might be a cause of some serious social unrest. That may be a valid point (as said before, I am no #FBPEer) but it seems to me the dangers of imposing a no deal exit on the majority of people who don't want it (in many cases oppose it passionately, almost violently) are just as real. But hardly anybody talks about that for some reason.

[CumbrianLefty]

Girly swot?!

Are we surprised that this is the way he thinks?

Although tbh I recall some Labourites making comparable statements in the 2009-2010 era.

I don't, do you have any actual sources?

[CumbrianLefty]

Catherine Bennett is "left wing", you say. Hmmm.......

(her recent partner - a certain John Humphrys - would certainly struggle to be described as such)

[CumbrianLefty]

if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.

Except they won't. It's logistically and legally impossible to hold an election and have the new parliament convene before Oct 31.

Though in this case the new PM (if there is one) would call for an extension, not parliament?

[CumbrianLefty]

Which makes the Government majority -43...

John Mann has announced he will not seek re-election as an MP due to his opposition to Corbyn.

And has taken a government sinecure as its "anti-Semitism tsar".

(the irony of the latter term in this context has not been lost on a few)

[CumbrianLefty]

John Bercow, the HoC Speaker, is to stand down (as an MP also) by the end of the year.

(in other words at the next GE assuming, as is now very likely, there is one before then)

When taking over in summer 2009, he said he would not do more than a decade.

[CumbrianLefty]

The point is, just ignoring it would be *illegal*.

[CumbrianLefty]

Wow. Did anyone see Ian Austin?  He's been wanting to get that off his chest for a long time...

His hopefully Danczukian result as an Independent at the coming GE will be highly pleasant.

An exceptionally unpleasant person, according to almost everybody who has dealt with him.

(too toxic for the ChUKkers, say no more)

[CumbrianLefty]

So confirmed wife-beater and racist Geoff Boycott is now a knight. What a farce.

Politically he is indeed hard right, but the McKinstry biography is well worth reading re his criminal conviction. Almost everybody who knows him believes he was "set up".

[CumbrianLefty]

Predictive polling like this is ridiculously unreliable. Even if the consequences of a no deal fall short of the worst predictions, the idea the Tories would win a landslide in the aftermath is laughable.

(there is also the very real possibility that even if BoJo refuses point blank to extend A50 - indeed goes to jail for it - it will still happen anyway, one way or another)

And your last point is also correct - any last minute "deal" before Oct 31 will be similar if not the same as May's, the government are making no serious effort to negotiate anything different. Farage and his party will denounce that to the heavens if it happens. As will several Tory MPs.

[CumbrianLefty]

Fair to say that this was not expected, and the judgement is damning indeed.

[CumbrianLefty]

If the opposition rams through a second referendum with the options of "Remain" and "May's Deal" before the election the brexiters could just boycott the referendum. "Remain" would then win with a 99% share and the referendum would have as much legitimacy as the Northern Ireland referendum of 1973 where the unionists won with 99%.

Polls fairly consistently show that hardcore support for leaving without a deal (in other words, those who will settle for *only* that and see anything else as treachery) is around the 20% mark.

A fair number of even those voters might support a deal to exit were it made clear that was the only chance they were going to get of Brexit for maybe a few decades. Its all about framing.

[CumbrianLefty]

The last referendum turnout was a bit short of 75% IIRC, never mind 80%.

(which still made it the biggest electoral event in the UK since the 1992 GE tbf)

[CumbrianLefty]

Sam Gyimah, one of the "Tory 21" group of MPs, has defected to the LibDems.

[CumbrianLefty]

He wants an election on his terms, not Cummings/Johnson's.

Perfectly reasonable, and any other opposition leader worth their salt would do the same.

That poll has Tories and BxP on half the vote - *much* too high.

Another out tonight is pretty much neck and neck.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of people on the left gave at least qualified support to Chavez, yes.

So what?

You are aware of the circumstances in which he came to power, right. And its also at least debatable how much he can be held responsible for what happened after he died (and his successor happening to be insane, come to that)

[CumbrianLefty]

The real concern about Corbyn is possible capital flight...

No. The real concern about Corbyn is the possibility that he might well be how one says 'Francois Hollande' in English.

As in the risk that he'll fail to deliver and electoral politics will reconfigure along similar lines to the ideologies of En Marche and the Front National/National Rally ie liberalism vs (ethno) nationalism? It is a worry (so much so I'd prefer you meant what CrabCake said).

Whatever else you say about him, I don't think he is the sort to run away from the slightest murmurs of opposition in the way Flanby did. Admittedly, there is more to "delivering" that just that however.