Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of commonalities sure, but one respect in which UK Labour is better off is that a lot of its policy programme is in itself quite popular (which is why our Tories have continually cherry picked ideas from it, especially since 2016) It doesn't look like the Canadian Tories have even that straw right now.

(and another recent poll showed them doing worse, and the NDP better, than the one cited above)

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, a libertarian who *isn't* a total shill for populist-right lite fascism. Genuinely nice to see

[CumbrianLefty]

"fathered of her children"?

[CumbrianLefty]

Only a handful of self-declared "legacy parties" genuinely don't want to win elections.

[CumbrianLefty]

If we're being honest, wasn't the 2011 result also a lot to do with Ignatieff's inadequacy?

[CumbrianLefty]

Social Credit, then Liberals - why have the Tories not been the main rightist force in BC at state level?

[CumbrianLefty]

In many ways Trudeau is the mirror image of right-populists like Johnson. Carries out a moderate administration in many respects, but is careful to do stuff that (in his case) "triggers the cons".

(not least because, as with the right-populists, it cements his own base)

[CumbrianLefty]

Always good when a long range forecast like that comes off

[CumbrianLefty]

How many respondents are taking the p***, I wonder.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will Amos' first embarrassment one could say was an embarrassing mistake, but twice in such a short period seems fishy.  Besides why would someone urinate in a cup and specifically in a zoom meeting.  That being said probably best for him to step aside from his role as don't know if just two bad mistakes together or something else.

Inevitably, there is now speculation about their physical/mental health.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah the Canadian Tories certainly have problems, but writing them off forever is a mug's game.

[CumbrianLefty]

As Liberal M.P David Dingwall said about 15 years ago now "I'm entitled to my entitlements."

A good line tbf.

[CumbrianLefty]

Economically, pretty much the whole world is to the left of where it used to be, and Canada's no different. But while the "economically left, culturally right" trend has benefited people like Boris Johnson elsewhere, the broad-based leftward shift in Canada puts the CPC in a difficult position. The NDP was in prime position to capitalize on this in 2015, but Mulcair was stuck in old ways and Trudeau ate his lunch.

O'Toole says he's following the Boris Johnson model, but no proof that it's helping them at all. 

Maybe because personality is such an important part of BoJo's "success". Of course even were O'Toole that way, he couldn't count on the Canadian media being anything like as uncritically sycophantic - so that's two big differences at least.

[CumbrianLefty]

Who could ever have foreseen that trying to make the Canadian Greens into a rabidly pro-Israel party would have any negative consequences, eh.

[CumbrianLefty]

Strong parallels between the British Tories and Canadian Liberals in all that, too.

[CumbrianLefty]

Who are the suspects for this church arsonism?

[CumbrianLefty]

Green Party decides to keep the anti-Quebec bigot and perpetual victim as leader.

That's a rather interesting way to introduce the news.

Though not necessarily a totally inaccurate one.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/poll-stephen-harper-would-change-this-election/ar-AAMs6UV?ocid=msedgntp which is interesting.  On one hand Trudeau still wins, but does seem Harper does better than O'Toole and at least gets party back to what it got in 2015 and close to 2019.  That has both good and bad news for Tories:

Bad news is they need to change to win again, Harper model doesn't work.

Good news is fact party does better suggests O'Toole has reason to believe party numbers will rise once campaign starts and he becomes more known so while still uphill battle to win outright, at least might not do as poorly as polls suggest now.

I don't think hypothetical questions of this sort are often very useful.

[CumbrianLefty]

Canadian far-right is as stupid as other countries' far-left, isn't it.

As stupid as the far-right in lots of countries, tbf. Given that the radical/populist right is at least as prone to splittism as their left wing equivalents (how many offshoots of UKIP have there been in this country!) its maybe slightly surprising it hasn't attracted as much academic attention.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

So maybe the talk (including on here) about the CPC being doomed forever was a tad premature?

Who knew??

[CumbrianLefty]

New polls from Angus Reid and Mainstreet Research, both of which show the mythical poll tightening.
https://angusreid.org/federal-leaders-ability-favourability/

AR:

LPC: 33%
CPC: 30%
NDP: 21%
BQ: 7%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 3%

Mainstreet:

LPC: 34%
CPC: 32%
NDP: 16%
GPC: 5%
BQ: 5%



Personally, I expect the results of the election to be around the numbers in the AR poll.

On that sort of polling, there might not even be an election just yet?

[CumbrianLefty]

Cancelling Spadina Expressway, TVOntario, community colleges...what a legacy!

And he was a Tory!

[CumbrianLefty]

Which is on balance good, I suppose?

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, shades of the Clegg-Huhne contest for the LibDem leadership back in 2007.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tl;dr I would once again like to remind everyone that Erin O'Toole has another party on his right flank.

So how safe would you say O'Toole's position is overall after the election?