European Elections 2009 (France)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Apparently Bayrou doesn't change>>>call for revolution in autumn.

Suits with what I thought.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Thanks for this. Interesting.

NPA is pretty high in Gandrange.

Grenoble could be interesting to, because it's far to be a blue collar era and it could be interesting to see the effects of Caterpillar's conflict.

Interestingly enough, MG Buffet said she called for enlarging the "Front de Gauche", will they finally burry the PCF??

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Provisional results for South-West put the PS at barely 18% !!!

Given the national results I expected Greens doing better here.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes, but PS at 18% in the South-West. South-West.

Yes, South-West! And South-West is a strong place for PS but for it's most of all a good place for left in general so far-left and alternative left too so I expected higher greenies and higher far-left. I'm curious of Toulouse's results.

Very good for Rennes. I tend to see this city as a Toulouse of the north generally speaking.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes, but PS at 18% in the South-West. South-West.

Yes, South-West! And South-West is a strong place for PS but for it's most of all a good place for left in general so far-left and alternative left too so I expected higher greenies and higher far-left. I'm curious of Toulouse's results.

Very good for Rennes. I tend to see this city as a Toulouse of the north generally speaking.

No, alternative left and radical left are strong in Toulouse area, but not in Aquitaine or rural South-West.
And Greens in France are strong in Paris and Banlieue, in Bretagne and in the eastern frontiers (Alsace, Savoies, etc).

I know less Aquitaine, and I control less election track records than both of you do, but knowing enough Midi-Pyrénées I've been surprised by these results, that said, when I thought South-West I thought Midi-Pyrénées, Aquitaine and especially Languedoc-Roussillon are pretty different, that may explain that South-West is not like IDF. That said, with the results of South-East, even with Aquitaine and Languedoc-Roussillon we could have hoped here.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

After having watched results of départements of Midi-Pyrénées here, PS well resisted.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Marine le Pen got the sit.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Thanks for all the results.

Personal feelings toward what happened:

#1 As a lot of people I'm not surprised of the success of the Majorité Présidentielle.

#2 I'm happy of the slap of the PS.

#3 I didn't like, through other things, to see Greenies dancing around the kind of campaign song they chose while making a political proposition but I support everything that can develop the relationship between economy, politics, and economy, thus I like this result.

#4 Bayrou deserved the slap he took, he ran in the wrong election, his campaign was really bad and he used populism as he never did before. Hope he will learn of what happened

#5 I thought that FN and Libertas would be both 5% and thus that FN would be behind far left.

#6 Not surprised that NPA is not high, I still think it doesn't really care of this result.



Personal analysis of what happened:

#1 The success of the right is very weak.

#2 Now it's a kit or double for PS. Regional elections could be decisive. Or Greenies result is just high because of the huge abstention and will not last, and thus PS will stay ahead. Or Greenies succeed in building a new strong political proposition around ecology/economy/politics and they succeed to present it as a credible political proposition. If so, they could bury the PS. This possibility would strongly depend of the abilities of Greenies and of the results of the 1st run of regionals.

#3 This high result of Greenies could also remain something high because it is an European election, in which that are mainly the upper classes who vote, and anyway not a majority (if ever someone as some results, especially concerning the turnout, by professional/social categories, I take it).

#4 If this last possibility is valid, which has strong chances to be, the PS can still survive and eat the Greenies by organizing big primaries (kinda Italian style) for the next presidential elections, Greens have things to propose, to speak about, PS has no more, they keep repeating for years now that they need to find a new "project". That's why Greenies could go high in the future, but they could be impeached if the PS just turned to a more pragmatic party which tries more to seduce than to convince, thus making on the left what UMP more or less does on the right. A defeat of PS in regionals would certainly lead to the resignation of Aubry and Royal could come back in the game at that occasion, this last one would certainly lead the PS to such an evolution.

#5 Bayrou. Or he changes, or he stays on his track of "Me and the nation". Something that can still work.

#6 FN. Well, I see them staying low. As for the rest of the far-right. A far-right which would certainly be more and more scattered.

#7 Mélenchon became the presidential candidate for the Front de Gauche for the next presidentials. The only question is whether or not the PCF will disappear.

To sum up. UMP is in a difficult position. Greenies can have a possibility to create a real big political movement in the future. PS can still eat them and come back. There are 3 wild cards that would play the role of the "savior of the nation": Bayrou, Villepin, Royal and that would profit of the bad social climate. A big interrogation point concerning this social climate because of the fog concerning the economical situation and because of the big psychological trouble that this crisis created. A wildest card, Besancenot, to profit about it. Luckily, a weak to very weak far-right.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ozewiezewozewiezewallakristallix

I don't remember of that one. Which book?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

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The most important concerning this category, and one of the most important things concerning this election too, is this figure: 81% of abstention by 18-24, it may explain the results inside voters...