Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Colbert]

According to last results here are the new deputy seats


renovacion national   (   R   )   26   seats   (   -10   )
UDI   (   R   )   23   seats   (   -7   )
partido republicano   (   FR   )   14   seats   (   14   )
partido socialista   (   CL   )   12   seats   (   -7   )
partido de la gente   (   FR   )   10   seats   (   10   )
partido communista   (   FL   )   10   seats   (   2   )
revolucion democratica   (   FL   )   9   seats   (   -1   )
democracia christana   (   CL   )   8   seats   (   0   )
convergencia social   (   FL   )   7   seats   (   7   )
partido por la democracia   (   CL   )   7   seats   (   -7   )
communes   (   FL   )   6   seats   (   5   )
partido radical   (   CL   )   5   seats   (   -3   )
evopoli   (   R   )   4   seats   (   -2   )
partido ecologista   (   L   )   3   seats   (   2   )
PRID   (   R   )   2   seats   (   2   )
partido liberal   (   CL   )   2   seats   (   0   )
federation verde   (   FL   )   2   seats   (   -2   )
partido humanista   (   L   )   2   seats   (   -3   )
centro unido   (   FR   )   1   seats   (   1   )
partido egualidad   (   L   )   1   seats   (   0   )
partido progressisto   (   L   )   0   seat   (   -1   )




right bloc had 46.8% of all seats in 2017, they should have 51.9 this year.


Kast will be easily elected as president.

Glorious !

[Colbert]

https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2021/11/21/1038869/nueva-camara-diputados-elecciones-ganadores.html

[Colbert]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

[Colbert]

Pero aunque es el dato más importante del día, no es el único relevante que dejó la jornada: la participación superó largamente el 50%, más que el Plebiscito constitucional y más que cualquier torneo electoral desde que existe el voto voluntario;

Fuente: Emol.com - https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2021/11/21/1038840/analisis-cifras-eleccion-presidencial.html

record of voting since vote is not obligatory

[Colbert]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

Are you counting DC as Center Right? And Parisi as Far Right? Both of those are wrong.

my bad about DC, not center right, exact.


But Parisi is anti-immigration. Nolens volens, far right for me (or populist right, if you prefer, whatever, in the rightist bloc, distinct from moderate right)

[Colbert]

there are hard-right-winger which approve social positions (me, by exemple, if I was american, I would be for a danish social welfare instauration)

[Colbert]

about Parisi and immigration

https://videoencontexto.com/franco-parisi-le-da-duro-a-la-onu-y-critica-la-llegada-de-haitianos/



https://www.elnortero.cl/noticia/listado/franco-parisi-debemos-tener-una-ley-de-inmigracion-tan-estricta-como-en-estados-unid

[Colbert]

this is a lanslide


compare to last presidential election


2017

all lefts : 49.55

center right : 42.52

far right : 7.93



2021

all lefts : 34.31 (-15.24)

center right : 24.26 (-18.26)

far right : 41.43 (+33.50)

But could not one argue that a Far-Right candidate will have a lot tougher time to hold on to the Center-Right vote and maybe get some defections from the Left voting bloc?  I guess one could counterargue that Boric is also out of the mainstream and the same logic will apply to his ability to grow his vote as well.

I agree with all your points. If Kast would have been opposed to a center left candidate, I doubt he would have win.

[Colbert]

Here are the results without count independants


RN   11.1 (worst result since 1965)
UDI   10.8 (worst result since 1989)
PR   10.7
PG   8.6
PC   7.5 (best result since 1973)
PS   5.5 (worst result since 1989)
PEV   4.9 (best result since creation in 2006)
CS   4.6
PDC   4.2 (worst result since 1953)
RD   4.1
PD   3.9 (worst result since 1945) (did not run between 1949 and 1973)
EP   3.5
CMN   3.3
PH   3.1 (worst result since 2005)
CU   2.8
PEG   2.0 (worst result since creation in 2009)
Prad   1.8 (worst result since creation, between 1852 and 1855*)
FRVS   1.7
PL   1.5 (best result since 1989)
UP   0.9
PTR   0.8
PP   0.7 (worst result since creation in 2010)
PCC   0.7
CDD   0.4
PRID   0.4 (worst result since creation in 2006)
PNC   0.2
NT   0.1



By block :

all lefts : 50.9 and 79 seats
all rights : 48.9 and 75 seats
1 independant seat



* https://es-academic.com/dic.nsf/eswiki/421220