2011 State Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

F**king hippies.

Seeing Franzl so enraged is rare enough to be enjoyable.

I can imagine

[Franzl]

So will the FDP survive or not ? It looks dramatically close...

I hope not. Now that the left-wingers are in power, the FDP might as well be humiliated.

[Franzl]

Ugh, the nuclear fearmongering worked.

Unsurprisingly. Germans are this way.

[Franzl]

Nice to see that the rise in Green support wasn't just a Fukushima bump. Unfortunately it'll be a while before the next election, so I'm still not very optimistic that these numbers will hold.

Yeah we're lucky there's no Federal Election for a while. The climate right now would have the potential to massively f**k up the country.

[Franzl]

...it seems to me, that guido and angela are pretty much f***ing up the country, right now.

I disapprove of the current government, but I really can't think of anything they've really done that drastically changes anything. Can you? My disapproval is primarily based on the fact that Merkel doesn't protect more conservative/liberals views such as mine. Merkel doesn't really have any principles herself.

[Franzl]

That's basically the problem. Angela Merkel doesn't believe anything. Even the positive changes that have come through this government (e.g. abolition of conscription) were the result of a single person. A single person that is no longer a member of this government. Certainly not Angela Merkel.

So her "lack of conservatism" doesn't necessarily equal "too left-wing" either (although I certainly believe that certain left-wing policies are coming from the government, such as suddenly discovering that atomic energy is indeed evil and needs to be gotten rid of immediately.)

I try to think of the horrors the alternative would bring. That's the only way to stay loyal to what's currently in power.

[Franzl]

Angela Merkel doesn't believe anything.

Thus she is a conservative.

I get what you're meaning to imply

She isn't a conservative to me because she's abandoning conservative policies in favor of what she thinks is necessary to regain popularity. Not because she believes in what she's doing.

Now of course you can argue on the whole principle of "conservatism", but I'm defining a conservative that believes something as "a person that advocates and pursues conservative policies". And you know what I mean

[Franzl]

Steinbrück is a rather acceptable Social Democrat actually. Under certain circumstances, I could see myself possibly supporting him.

[Franzl]

Hans is right. Take me as an example. Assuming the SPD nominates someone other than Steinbrück (and then I'd still consider my options), I would almost certainly cast a tactical list vote to save the FDP.

[Franzl]

I had my entertainment yesterday. That's worth something...

[Franzl]

Bremen is indeed a very weird place. I don't understand it well enough to explain anything about Bremen...but they're pretty much joke state status to me.

[Franzl]

How come over 2/3 go for the left.  Yes I realize the federal government is not too popular, but here in Toronto we are a liberal city and we have a Conservative government federally, yet we voted for a Conservative mayor since we were tired of high taxes and out of control spending.  I can see the majority voting left, that makes sense, but 2/3 that is a lot.  As hockey commentator Don Cherry would say are there a lot of left wing pinkos who ride bicycles in Bremen?

Fist of all, you cannot compare party vote with proportional representation in Bremen to a non-partisan vote for mayor in Toronto that was all about personality. If you want to go down that road - then how do you explain David Miller (the "socialist" NDP former mayor) winning re-election in 2007 with 65% of the vote. Using your logic in 2007 2/3 of all Torontonians voted socialist!

German inner cities tend to vote for the left of centre parties. You will see this to an even greater degree in Sept. when Berlin has elections and the SPD, Greens and Linke will probably get about 75% of the vote between them. Think of it as being a bit like he way the Democrats totally dominate municipal government in cities like Chicago, San Francisco, LA etc...

Although at least in Berlin it's still open who will actually lead the government. We have a choice between Green-SPD and SPD-Green

Even I would vote Green in Berlin to throw out Wowereit. The Greens can't be worse. I would hope that other conservative voters would vote Green tactically as the less Socialist alternative, but I doubt it'll happen. (Although I suppose a lot of CDU voters did actually vote SPD in Hamburg several months ago to keep the Greens out of the coalition, seeing as Scholz is a relatively moderate SPDer...) Suppose we'll see.

[Franzl]

Berlin is an awful place...and not just politically. Think we could convince Poland to take it? Kalwejt?

[Franzl]

...needs...uptick...in...left...popularity.

Come on. CDU in fourth place. You can totally do it, Berlin.

Don't forget that Berlin managed to have the CDU in 1st place in 2009

[Franzl]

 New federal poll fron Forsa:

CDU 31
FDP 4

Green 26
SPD 23

Left 9

Government (CDU/FDP): 35%
Opposition (SPD/Green/Left): 58%

Would be a Green/SPD majority if elections were held today with a Green chancellor and without having to cooperate with the Left.


Germany is f**ked, in other words.

[Franzl]

I agree, it totally needs both the SPD and Die Linke to be in its next government.

My only comfort is that I'm moving to Bavaria this Fall and whatever happens at federal level....we're at least immune to the left-wing wave

[Franzl]

A Green chancellor? Eugh.

I doubt relatively strongly that it'll hold....but I'm also relatively confident Merkel is done (unless, I suppose, CDU/SPD happens again), but then again, weirder things have happened. Look at Sweden.

[Franzl]

A Green chancellor? Eugh.

Speaking of that, who is most likely to become Chancellor in case the Greens are indeed the biggest goverment party after the next election Roth or Özdemir?  

It's never been seriously discussed. The Greens have never been in a position like now and I (and they probably) aren't convinced it's real.

I personally can't imagine that Roth wouldn't be given the opportunity if the numbers hold. Özdemir only if it looks unlikely that the Greens could form government and even then maybe not.

[Franzl]

Actually, I could live with Joschka Fischer, Chancellor of the BRD, and Özdemir could be used against Phil in the Misssile Shield thread, even if it would be pretty awfull that the SPD would come in behind the Greens, for whom I have little love beyond their role as junior partners in Socialist-led coalitions.

The only non-CDU chancellor I could live with at this point is probably Steinbrück. Not that I'm happy with what the CDU has to offer either.

[Franzl]

Realistically, how many people, whether politician or not, would?

[Franzl]

So hopefully six month from now, my home state will be red again.
Well, red and green, with way to much green for my taste. But if the nationwide trend holds, the Greens will be down to 15% or so by then, and SPD up to 35%.

For some reason S-W just should be red. Fits the way I picture the state

I imagine Hesse will turn red following the next election (unless something genuinely changes the national political perspective). We just got lucky that Ypsilanti f**ked up so badly. Otherwise there's no way Koch would have been re-elected.

Oh well....as it's quite certain that I'm moving to Bavaria in a few weeks.....I guess I don't need to worry about the red wave too much

[Franzl]

Well congratulations Wowereit. Only in Berlin...

[Franzl]

No buyer remorse in B-W, I see.

I'm surprised, I thought they would quickly regret dumping CDU.

Surprisingly, I somewhat approve of the Green led government in B-W. Never thought I'd say that.

[Franzl]

No buyer remorse in B-W, I see.

I'm surprised, I thought they would quickly regret dumping CDU.

Surprisingly, I somewhat approve of the Green led government in B-W. Never thought I'd say that.

Are they ruling from the right, or what?

For green standards maybe, but not particularly really. Kretschmann is a pragmatist, though. Certainly not a "normal" Green any way you look at it.

[Franzl]

CDU/FDP: 36%
SPD/Green: 49% (SPD/Green/Left: 57%)

I think it's pretty clear at this point (as I've said before) that this government will never be popular again.