Illinois Primary Thread

[Franzl]

I have no idea. It seems that the momentum is on Hynes's side, and the last Tribune poll had um only down 4.

If forced to pick, I'd say Hynes is more likely than not to defeat Quinn.


What do you all think? (I'm talking to you Lunar!)

[Franzl]

Quinn has been getting some positive press despite everything.

The 1200 new jobs from Ford....and also the High Speed Rail money. I wonder if that'll help him at all.

[Franzl]

Well, today's the day! Polls open in 1 hour.

[Franzl]

so... Hoffman or Giannoulias? I'm rooting for Hoffman, but I think he'll probably lose narrowly.

I voted for Hoffman too, but I think Giannoulias is likely to win.

I'm still somewhat optimistic about Quinn, though, and I really hope he beats Hynes.

I also believe McKenna will win the GOP primary.

[Franzl]

Predictions: (although we really have little to base these on....)

Governor:

Quinn: 52
Hynes: 48

McKenna: 32
Ryan: 21
Dillard: 20
A...ski: 17
Brady: 10

Senate:

Giannoulias: 40
Hoffman: 36
Jackson: 21
Marshall: 2
Meister (who dropped out a few days ago): 1

Kirk: 65
Hughes: 30
Martin: 5

[Franzl]

Everyone seems to be predicting a Hynes win, although the margin (53-47) is the same as in Quinn's worst public poll yet.

I really do think this last week has been quite positive for Quinn....and I'm hoping and predicting that Quinn can come back and claim victory.

It's anyone's game of course.

[Franzl]

So far, a collective yawn in primary voting:

National political pundits have been busy trying to divine broad meaning from Illinois' Groundhog Day primary, but that noisy class of professional crystal ball gazers could be in for a challenge if an early collective yawn from voters continues through the day.

City election officials said turnout for the first hour of voting was extremely low. Jim Allen, communications director for the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, said there were precincts all over the city that experienced as few as two voters coming through their doors.

"That's bad," he said. "There are very few voters coming out to cast a ballot. This could mean six more weeks of campaigning if the voters just see their shadows."

Cook County Clerk David Orr, who oversees election machinery in the suburbs, said morning turnout appeared "relatively slow," though it was too early to make any broad projections about how things might end up by the time the polls close at 7 p.m.

[Franzl]

So what are the important differences between Giannoulias and Hoffman (if there are any)?

As far as policy is concerned, none whatsoever. Both are liberal Democrats.

[Franzl]

Well, polls are set to close in about half an hour.

Turnout overall is reported to be quite low, possibly lower than in 2006 even.

Downstate turnout is especially low. My home county of Madison is predicting 15% turnout.


We'll see soon enough how things will turn out. I'm still...despite everything, remaining somewhat optimistic about Quinn.

[Franzl]

Well, polls are set to close in about half an hour.

Turnout overall is reported to be quite low, possibly lower than in 2006 even.

Downstate turnout is especially low. My home county of Madison is predicting 15% turnout.


We'll see soon enough how things will turn out. I'm still...despite everything, remaining somewhat optimistic about Quinn.

That would be good for Kirk right?

Yeah don't worry about Kirk, regardless of turnout. I think he'll be close to 70% right now.

[Franzl]

And polls are now officially closed.

[Franzl]

with 0% reporting (lol):

Giannoulias 47
Hoffman 29
Jackson 10
Marshall 8
Meister 5

[Franzl]

Kirk 48% Hughes 19%


Just about 200 votes in.

Upset???

[Franzl]

Dillard, Kirk GOP 121 33%
 Brady, Bill GOP 78 21%
 McKenna, Andy GOP 78 21%
 Ryan, Jim GOP 53 14%
 Proft, Dan GOP 25 7%
 Andrzejewski, Adam GOP 16 4%
 Schillerstrom, Bob GOP 1 0%

Let's hope it stays that way. Dillard is a truly sane guy, and would be a perfectly acceptable governor.

[Franzl]

We're not really the fastest at counting votes, are we?

[Franzl]

All of that is from Cook County, BTW.

[Franzl]

Lake's numbers are now showing.

Hoffman looks pretty weak, in my opinion. He should be leading by more than 2.

[Franzl]

Cook County is responsible for like 90% of the votes we have right now.

[Franzl]

Hoffman is now up 14% in Lake.

In Cook, Alexi ist only leading by 6%. That's not very strong, IMO.

[Franzl]

Quinn is doing absolutely horribly downstate. My neighboring county, with 40% of precincts reporting, has Hynes at 73%!

[Franzl]

Yeah, looking at the county numbers the Gubernatorial primaries are still anyone's game.

If the margins downstate hold, Quinn probably is going down.

But yeah....I suppose it still is anyone's game.

[Franzl]

Jersey County, right next door, has Hynes at 72% now with 60% reporting.

[Franzl]

Anyone knowledgable about IL willing to speculate as to whether Hoffman still has a realistic shot?

Maybe. Chicago suburbs aren't really in yet, and they'll decide this.

[Franzl]

I think Quinn is done for. Hope I'm wrong.

[Franzl]

Damn these governor races are tight.

Dillard seems to be closing in.