Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

New Poll:
Maagar Mochot/Israel Hayom & i24 News
https://www.israelhayom.co.il/article/639217


Blue&White - 33
Likud - 26
Hadash–Ta'al - 9
Labour - 8
Meretz - 8 (Well that seems high?)
UTJ - 8
New Right - 8
URWP - 8
Shas - 4
Zehut - 4
Kulanu - 4

Zehut is doing better and better in the polls. Looks like they'll pass, and with over 4 seats at that. UGH

I doubt it. They've passed the threshold in exactly two polls. It isn't impossible that they'll get their four seats, but without a bunch more polling showing them passing I don't buy it.  These Bibiton polls are also especially ridiculous,  so consider that.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

they either rule against Ben Ari and Kassif or rule that they're all eligible.

I actually think there's a real possibility, and a strong legal argument, that Zahalka and Kassif are allowed but Ben Ari is not. But that would wind the right wing up so much that it may end up costing the center left the election, so I'm not sure what I'm hoping cones of this.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

they either rule against Ben Ari and Kassif or rule that they're all eligible.

I actually think there's a real possibility, and a strong legal argument, that Zahalka and Kassif are allowed but Ben Ari is not. But that would wind the right wing up so much that it may end up costing the center left the election, so I'm not sure what I'm hoping cones of this.

If barring nazis from running is what ruffles the feathers of our "swing voters" to vote against the left then we're truly lost.

@Hnv: What do you think are the odds? I've been hearing more about Ben Ari than about Cassif.

I'm not talking about swing voters. I'm talking about right wing turnout and maybe marginal Likud voters, like arsim in the periphery who may really get cranked up by revanchist Jewish racism.

[Walmart_shopper]

New Magar Mochot Poll, Parentheses mean change since last time polled.

B&W 33 ()
Likud 26 ()
Meretz 8 ()
Labour 7 (-1)
URWP 7 (-1)
UTJ 7 (-1)
Hadaash-taal 6 (-3)
New Right 6 (-2)
Shaas 5 (+1)
Zehut 5 (+1)
YB 5 (+5)
Kulanu 5 (+1)

Ways to interpret results:

Left+Arabs 54 /Right 66
6 Arabs / 48 Left / 10 Centre  / 56 Pure Right

Technically with these results a Grand Coalition barely has a majority. More minors means a harder life for B&W...Maybe Bibi as well if he needs to juggle more parties then presently.

Those results don’t really stack up for me, and it all hinges on Raam-Balad below the threshold. Anyhow Maagar is not a good pollster.

Unless the right wing voters totally splinters, I don't see Zehut, Lieberman, and Kahlon passing the threshold. They all feed upon various fringes of the Likud electorate and I just don't think Likud is that week.

But it's definitely true that the right needs two of those three to get a bare majority. I don't think it's that hard to get two, but I'm not sure that a majority of one or two mandates propped up by Zehut, Kahanists, and/or Kahlon is very stable. We'll be back at elections within a year without national unity.

[Walmart_shopper]

Well I’m utterly surprised, SC disqualified Ben Ari and him alone

I warned you. The dude is literally banned from entering the United States. It's not inconceivable that he would also be banned from entering the Knesset.

I wonder what, if any, electoral effect this ends up having. This pretty much guarantees that no Otzmah Yehudit candidate will get in given the fact that Bayit Yehudi is only polling at around 7 mandates right now. Also, Raam-Baalad seems increasingly important to any blocking bloc against a Netanyahu government, so the green light to them is also pretty elecyorally significant insofar as they can actually get across the threshold, which is by no means guaranteed.

I saw one national religious site describe it as a "blow" to the right wing union. But I could also see it galvanizing right wingers around the party as a way of "owning the libs" on the Court.

[Walmart_shopper]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

Centralization of right wing voters. We predicted something like this might happen when B&W formed, but I'm surprised it hasn't caused more casualties in the minors yet. There have been two movements right now it appears: Likud -> Kulanu/Zehut if you don't like Bibi's scandals, Right -> Likud to protect against B&W. With this centralization, and Ari off the list, I would't be surprised if the first minor under is URWP.

But the other thing is that there is a lot of flux right now, what with who was banned and not banned. It could benefit the left, or the right depending on the narrative.

But why the BW result is down ?

I'm sure that running an aimless campaign predicated on an ideological and moral agnosticism that fears rather than challenges and inspires the public is probably part of it.

[Walmart_shopper]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true. The police are apparently considering opening yet another criminal investigation against Bibi nto possible insider trading related to a controversial submarine deal with Germany. So his legal troubles, if not his political ones, are worsening.

It's just dd that Bibi would expose himself like he did last night. His campaigns are usually so disciplined and targeted, which is why they work. He doesn't do debates or hostile interviews. And yet last night he opened himself up to a pretty tough interview and was just demolished. You have to wonder if there's something going on in the electorate that isn't totally obvious.

Ayelet Shaked confirmed what we all wondered about, which is that the Likud is indeed trying to siphon votes away from other right wing parties even at the expense of the right wing bloc. Shaked's New Right is struggling to stay above the threshold, so this is significant.

[Walmart_shopper]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

from my experience, private polls are not better than public ones.

Correct. But private polls direct campaign behavior much more than public ones do. Private polls would compel Bibi to expose himself on TV last night, and public ones would not. I'm not saying the Likud is imploding, only that it's probably the case that some private polling is painting that picture.

It's also worth pointing out that in 2015 Likud's private polling showed that heading into Election Day the Zionist Union had recovered and was leading after Herzog and Livni canceled their rotation agreement. That's what prompted the totally scripted "Arabs are flocking to the polls" lie and Bibi's announcement of opposition to a Palestinian state. And then during the day it was Likud's private polling that showed the Likud skyrocketing ahead by several mandates. Those private polls caught what even the exit polls could not. In Israel public polls are usually very hit or miss, but private polling can be very good.


In any case, even public polling has Blue and White regaining after a brief slip. But the right bloc is still in obviously better shape. I think Bibi is much more concerned about the Likud than about the right wing, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

from my experience, private polls are not better than public ones.

TBH, all polls in 2015 were off the final result by a country mile. So maybe there is something we are not seeing, and polls will once again be consistently off.  I'm wondering why the interview happened now, when Trump just gave Bibi a lifeline with the Golon statement. It changes the media's topic from one that benefits Bibi to an uncertain one.

Another possibility exists: Bibi doesn't want to form another all-right government. Polls are showing that he would have to add more parties, potentially zehut whose loyalty is uncertain. So it might be easier for B&W and Likud to just form a government, no matter who comes in first. The potential downside is that Bibi would certainly need to step back as part of B&W demands, but this might not be a downside if Bibi knows he is finished

People thought Mark Mellman was out of his mind in 2013 when he said that Yair Lapid, whose campaign he was working with, could pick up 22 mandates. He wound up with 19. There's often a current in Israeli politics that public polling just doesn't pick up, and it often runs on issues that aren't even being highlighted in the media (think Pensioner Party).  In 2015 it was Likud's consolidation of the right wing and Bayit Yehudi's flop. It's totally possible, even probable, that something is happening that we don't even see. Nobody knows what exactly that is but if I had to guess I would guess that it was Yesh Atid's secular middle class base coming home to take back government from the Haredim and picking up a fair amount of secular Likud voters tired of Bibi and leftist voters hoping to end right wing government. We're all talking about corruption and annexation of the West Bank and it could be that the electorate is fired up about a cadre of Haredi rabbis determining the country's future. Obviously, though, that's just a hunch. I also think that the Arabs will actually flock to the polls and significantly outperform their polling, which likely won't get them into government but will ensure the math isn't there for Netanyahu.

[Walmart_shopper]

As an illustration of my argument above, here's a new Hadashot poll:

Blue and White  32
Likud 28
Labor 10
UTJ and Hadash Taal 7
Shas 6
Bayit Yehudi and New Right 5
Meretz, Raam Balaad, Gesher, Zehut and Lieberman  4

Assuming Zehut backs a right wing coalition, that's 61-59 in favor of the center-left-Arab opposition. And that also assumes that the vast array of right wing parties (and Raam Balaad) actually cross the threshold. It's the second poll in a week showing Gesher over the threshold, by the way.
   .

[Walmart_shopper]

And a grand coalition would need a smaller party to get over 61. But I think it's not that hard and that there are willing partners (in this case Gesher?)

The problem with a grand coalition is figuring out who will lead it, not who will be a part of it. Gesher and Kulanu would push very hard to make that happen, and Labor and at least a couple right wing parties would probably be very easy to bring on board (although I think Labor would be very smart to lead the opposition rather than join a grand coalition led by Netanyahu).

[Walmart_shopper]

The Hebrew University's lawschool student council was hosting an election panel tonight, where, amongst others, URWP's Bezalel Smotrich, Labour's Revital Swid and Meretz's Michal Rozin were supposed to attend. The URWP switched their representative from Smotrich to Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir in the last moments, prompting Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties to withdraw. There's going to be a demonstration to stop the outrage of bringing this murder-supporter here.

The problem with this logic is that Smotrich isn't really much better. What time is the demonstration, by the way? We actually live fairly close to campus.

[Walmart_shopper]

New Migdam/Channel 12 poll:

B&W: 32
Likud: 28
Labor: 10
Hadash/Ta'al: 7
United Torah Judaism: 7
Shas: 6
New Right: 5
URWP: 5
Zehut: 4
Gesher: 4
Yisrael Beiteinu: 4
Ra'am/Balad: 4
Meretz: 4

--------------------------

Kulanu - 2.6%

Am I correct that Gesher would be more in the centre left camp that in the Likud/hard right religious camp?

This is correct.

Orly-Levy left Liberman's party because she felt that it had gotten away from its focus on social issues, especially aid to Russian migrants, secularism, and inclusivity. She's from the right, but her heart and political impulse is from the left.

[Walmart_shopper]

Are the Russians that came from the 90s wave of immigration integrating (for lack of a better word)? Do second generation Russians identify at all with the old country?

They're fairly well integrated, which is why Yisrael Beitenu is having trouble demonstrating its relevance. The parents remain kind of on the margins of Israeli society to a certain extent, while the kids of those immigrants have gone in all sorts of directions in life, whether Moscow or Yeshiva. Some aren't Jewish, but the vast majority are clearly and unmistakably Israeli Soviet migration is still the bulk of migration to Israel today. And unlike the Russian migration of the 90s, these new migrants are mostly non Jewish, totally detached from Jewish life and identity, and I'm not sure if they even have a political home.

[Walmart_shopper]

What's it like to like in the West Bank, I heard the reason why most people live there is because the schools are better there.

It's fairly quiet, suburban. A lot of Americansice in the West Bank because there are US-style subdivisions, or maybe there are subdivisions with big homes because there are Americans. But it's definitely not about the schools. It's for one of two reasons. Housing is newer and cheaper. And ideological-religious reasons.

[Walmart_shopper]

I've heard that a typical complaint that Russian immigrants to Israel make is that they can't get easy access to pork to cook their favourite dishes and that vodka is pricey compared to back home.

Getting pork in Israel is like getting good Mexican food in the US. There aren't good places on every corner, but they're pretty common. I live in Jerusalem, which has a smaller Russian population and a huge number of religious Jews and a Muslims. Yet it's not terribly hard to get pork here. In the coastal cities it's even easier.

[Walmart_shopper]

It seems wryly fitting that the election that looks to finally kill off the two-state solution will take place on the anniversary of the Deir Yassin massacre.

Chilling.

[Walmart_shopper]

What explains the four point swing to HaAvoda?

Liberals coming home after growing weary of Gantz's pandering to the right.

I also think people assume Bibi will win, in which a serious and ideologically firm opposition is needed.

But I think it's an outlier in any case. These would be the reasons, though, if it were legit.

[Walmart_shopper]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.

From my experience, on social issues most Israeli youths are very progressive and accepting. Much less homophobic than their parents etc. So it's sad they don't practice it politically, but I'm not surprised, knowing how many of my friends vote for the traditional right-wing (or worse, Zehut, which gives them an option to think they don't hurt their homosexual friends but instead vote for one of the biggest homophobes in the race).

And you have to realize that when we talk about "Israeli youth" we are talking about a quickly growing Haredi demographic, too. There was a poll of Israeli college students and it had Gantz winning by a bunch with Meretz and Zehut also doing well.  But most Israeli college students are secular and middle class. When you consider the youth demographic as a whole you have to factor in Haredim is changes everything. But my experience is that even Haredi youth are modernizing pretty quickly, just not quickly enough to be politically liberal. Among secular and even national religious youth there is definitely a pretty stark social liberalism--openness to gays, opposition to the rabbinate, liberalism on women's issues, pluralism, etc. But on security and Arab-Jewish relations in some ways the views of young people are much more regressive and atavistic. Thus the lean to the right.

[Walmart_shopper]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.

From my experience, on social issues most Israeli youths are very progressive and accepting. Much less homophobic than their parents etc. So it's sad they don't practice it politically, but I'm not surprised, knowing how many of my friends vote for the traditional right-wing (or worse, Zehut, which gives them an option to think they don't hurt their homosexual friends but instead vote for one of the biggest homophobes in the race).

And you have to realize that when we talk about "Israeli youth" we are talking about a quickly growing Haredi demographic, too. There was a poll of Israeli college students and it had Gantz winning by a bunch with Meretz and Zehut also doing well.  But most Israeli college students are secular and middle class. When you consider the youth demographic as a whole you have to factor in Haredim is changes everything. But my experience is that even Haredi youth are modernizing pretty quickly, just not quickly enough to be politically liberal. Among secular and even national religious youth there is definitely a pretty stark social liberalism--openness to gays, opposition to the rabbinate, liberalism on women's issues, pluralism, etc. But on security and Arab-Jewish relations in some ways the views of young people are much more regressive and atavistic. Thus the lean to the right.

Agreed. The non-Haredi but still religious Jewish groups seem to be fairly young as well:



I've noticed that outside of the South, North American Evangelicals have sort of set up their own seperate subculture which can reduce contact people outside the sub-culture have with them...

I assume the same effect exists in Israel only moreso? How isolated are the various subcultures (Haredi vs National Religious or other religious Jews, vs Secular vs Arab etc) from each other?

They have historically operated as distinct subcultures. But within the last couple of decades or even just the last several years there has been a huge amount of integration, with more Haredim going to college and national religious integrating in politics and civil society. That has actually led to a huge amount of secularization, by the way, which is why demographic doomsdayism among secular Israelis isn't quite right. The joke is that Haredim women have a greater number of secular kids than secular women, and the number of more modern orthodox who leave religion is likewise significant.

But this is also definitely true of Evangelicalism in the United States, too, where it may seem like their political and social influence is strong but in fact that community is imploding. I think the same would be said of Orthodoxy in Israel. It's also true if Poland and Russia and other places where right wing populism is quite a big thing  The vectors of social change are towards dramatic secularism, but the political vectors are towards a rightist anti-liberalism draped in religious meaning and nomenclature. It's all very superficial, though. If you look just beneath the surface it's easy to that there as in Israel traditional religion is losing power and influence all over the place, but its place in government and its demographics make it look vastly stronger than it really is

[Walmart_shopper]

So Hatzel endorsed Feiglin with this insane video, lmao

I guess it was only a matter of time before Israel got its own Nothing Matters election.

[Walmart_shopper]

So there were a couple new polls yesterday and a couple more this morning, which should be just about it since a polling embargo goes into effect after today. Finally there seems to be a pretty broad consensus about the election (or maybe it's just herding). Blue and White lead Likud by 3-5 mandates and the right wing (including Zehut's five-ish mandates) have 63-65 mandates for a very narrow majority.

I'll give my prediction of the results, but it's hard to do so given the dynamics of the campaign so far. Here are a few things to watch for.

1. Do Arabs boycott the elections? One Arab party internal showed Arab turnout at only 50 percent (Jewish turnout is often closer to 70 percent). Another public poll recently showed it to be a little higher but less than 2015. If the Arab parties together can net 13 mandates, that will make it very hard for the right wing to get to 61 mandates. Many Arabs have also expressed openness to voting for Gantz in reaction to the racist nation-state law that was passed. Those who do so won't make way huge difference if only half of eligible Arab voters turn out.

2. The threshold. I've always thought that a right wing majority depends on Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Liberman, and Gantz all passing the threshold. And I think that Bibi will have an easier  time if Raam Balaad stays under. A normal polling error either way and it's totally possible that the right wing (or left wing) loses 4-8 seats, which given the current state of the ideological blocs would pretty much be the election.

3. Last minute trickery. Some think that by canceling their rotation agreement Gantz and Lapid could gain an extra few seats from the right. When Herzog and Livni cancelled their rotation in 2015 it actually did gain their party a few seats and a lead over the Likud. In response Bibi pulled his infamous election day stunt of opposing a two state solution and warning about Arabs "flocking to the polls." That also worked and siphoned enough votes away from Bennet to keep the Likud in first. Anything can happen these days and anything probably will happen.

4. Is Zehut the real deal? They're nuts, but this country is also nuts. The question is what that means for the party and the parties it is taking votes from (which is generally agreed to be smaller right wing parties). Does Zehut pick up last minute undecided voters (and a terrifyingly large number this year)  and outperform polling?  ? Do they take a mandate or two away from Meretz or typical Aleh Yarok voters? Or do national religious voters and conservatives come home at the last minute and vote for Likud and the United Right (or Bennet)? And, last but not least, what happens when coalition talks begin, especially if Gantz wins by 3 or 4 mandates and is selected to begin coalition talks?

So here are my predictions:

Blue and White: 34
Likud: 29
Labor: 9
Hadash-Taal: 7
UTJ: 7
Zehut: 6
United Right: 5
New Right: 5
Meretz: 5
Liberman: 5
Ram Balaad: 4
Shas: 4

Right wing + Zehut: 61
Center-left + Arab parties: 59

My hunch is that we'll get a national unity government of some sort led by Benny Gantz, but I won't bother predicting coalition talks at this point.

[Walmart_shopper]

It appears that Netanyahu is using the last few days of the campaign to do what we wondered whether he'd do, which is try to siphon right wing votes away from other right wing parties to build a Likud big enough to top Blue White. Amit Segal, who is by no means at all a Netanyahu opponent or leftist, believes that Bibi is in panic mode and is willing to take the risk to build a big Likud even though it could gut the right wing bloc. It's also possible that Netanyahu simply wants a broad centrist government for any number of reasons (attack on Hezbollah or Iran, the Trump peace plan) to get some polotically dicey things done before he's sent to jail.

I don't know what to make of it, honestly. I tend to think that Bibi just likes to freak right wing voters out (in 2013 he was hyperventilating about turnout in Tel Aviv, which ended up not very high, and in 2015 he was moaning about Arabs flocking to the polls, which they weren't). At the same time, though, my hunch is that Likud is in worse shape than the polls show and if there's a surprise it will be how well Gantz and the left does. So who knows what Netanyahu is thinking.

[Walmart_shopper]

If you thought you have seen some crazy things so far, Feiglin takes it to another level with this Gay foot fetish video.

This is Peak Feiglin. I'm pretty sure the point of Zehut is solely to cross every imaginable boundary in Israeli society and politics.

Edit: apparently Feiglin wants to nominate himself for prime minister. The guy is trolling us.