Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

Hi, simple and armature question from me:   My understanding is that Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  If so then why are Arab parties only winning around 9%-11% of the vote?  Is it because not all Arabs are citizens (my understanding is that people in East Jerusalem can vote which I assume have to include that Arabs that live there)? Is it because Arab turn out a lower rates?  Perhaps Christian and Druze Arabs do not vote for the Arab parties?  If so why do they vote for?

I am asking because it seems to me if the Arab parties can get to around 20% of the seats they can pretty much cause political chaos by forcing constant grand coalitions since in such a situation I cannot see how Right-Religious or the Left-secular bloc every getting a majority without bringing in Arab parties into the government or buy them off.

It's a combination of the reasons you listed causing the disparity. Most Arabs in Jerusalem are not citizens and can't vote, turnout is lower amongst Arabs, most Druze vote for various Zionist parties. Also while the vast majority of (non-Druze) Arabs voted for the Joint List last elections, more of them voted for Zionist parties than Jews voting for the Joint List.

What kind of a non-Druze Arab votes for the Zionist parties? I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't someone like Avigdor Lieberman have something of a Bedouin consitituency at one point, largely for pork barrel type reasons?

Shas attracts a segment of Arab voters with their big theme of fighting for those who are "transparent" in society. The liberal and left parties attract middle and upper class Arabs who are more integrated into Israeli society and are more comfortable looking beyond existential questions of whether Israel should even exist and instead seek to turn the Israel that does exist into a country that protects the rights and opportunities for its non-Jewish minority population. The Arab population is actually a lot more diverse and complex than people outside the country really appreciate. And so the politics of that sector are pretty complex, too. 

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1100818653426130944

Here we go boys!

Haaretz is reporting that the Likud is bracing for losing five seats from just this announcement. The big question is obviously where those seats go. In any case, it's hard to see Bibi wind up as PM is Likud ends up finishing ten or more seats behind Gantz on election day, regardless of how the respective blocs perform.

[Walmart_shopper]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I do, but I honestly don’t see why something that happened with teen Gantz in the early 70’s is interesting. And I don’t even like him.

Labour’s new toy, Rosso, on the other hand...

That's another downside about going all in with Kahanists--you lose all moral authority. A Gantz who exposed himself 40 years ago when he was some kid is infinitely better than a Netanyahu who exposed Israeli government to Kahanism this year when he was prime minister.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1100818653426130944

Here we go boys!

Rubbish. 2000 is the easiest bribe case of them all. He’s also rumored to consider not publishing any of the materials until the election. What a soft and pathetic AG

Mandelblit wants to protect the electoral process from his influence. But shouldn't the electoral process be influenced precisely by things like proof that the prime minister running for re-election used his position to commit crimes that endanger the democratic process and the political integrity of the Israeli political system? The right wingers are now sending death threats to Mandelblit's home. He's already crossed the Rubicon so he might as well do right by the people he's there to protect, which is us, and show us the evidence.

[Walmart_shopper]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I find the timing of these accusations (just like Kavanaugh and Fairfax) very disturbing.  Not saying they are not true but concerning nevertheless.  On the other hand the more more these things that take place the net impact of these last minute accusations will have less and less impact over time.  

I don't like the timing argument. Of course women who were hurt by a man and were too scared to speak out would find it more urgent to speak to prevent this man from being a SC Justice/Senator/President/Prime Minister/Governor. It makes perfect sense. It's the tone and the connections behind that person I'd watch out for.

I'm not at all saying that she's lying. I actually suspect she's telling the truth.  But here is her facebook page: https://m.facebook.com/navarone.jacobs.5

Doesn't exactly scream rando Israeli woman with no interest in politics just a desire to let the truth be known. She's clearly very firmly on the very political right and wants a lot of people to know it.

It's entirely possible that the allegations are both true AND politically motivated. They should probably be evaluated as exactly that.

[Walmart_shopper]

So Mandelblit "intends to" indict Netanyahu but there will be a hearing in which he can defend himself first, and this hearing will take place after the election. Could be worse for him.

No, this is just how the Israeli legal process works. This was the announcement that we have been waiting for and talking about. In Israeli law an indictment can come only after a hearing. The question was whether and for what the attorney general would announce his decision to indict. It could be worse for Bibi in the sense that it could be murder instead of bribery, but this is really bad.

[Walmart_shopper]

The attorney general announced that Netanyahu should be indicted in all three cases for which he was being investigated: breach of trust in two and bribery in the third. He also announced that he would be indicted on fraud in all three cases, which I don't think was actually expected and so that's a little bombshell on top of the giant indictment bombshell.

Gantz is expected to announce today that he will not join a government led by Bibi.

I think he's toast. What a day.

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, the Kahanists want everyone to know of that they still plan to support Bibi for PM after elections. Glad we got that cleared up.

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, the Kahanists want everyone to know of that they still plan to support Bibi for PM after elections. Glad we got that cleared up.

So does Shas, lead by felon Aryeh Deri who the police recommend to be indicted for corruption again and who said he's closer to murder supporting Ben Gvir than to mainstream Zionist Lapid. Sure a great defense team!

We only need to hear from UTJ's Litzman, who may himself be indicted for using his power to cover up sex abuse by a fellow Haredi woman, what he plans to do.

What an absolute clown car. Either this really is the end of the road for the government and this is what ugly breakups look like, or else the democratic experiment that is Israel is done. I guess the next month will be pretty instructive.

[Walmart_shopper]

What's interesting is that Kulanu, which Bibi would likely need to cross the threshold to stay in power and which may not actually cross the threshold, has been very quiet when everyone else in the Kahanist alliance has promised post-election support for Netanyahu as PM. If that Times of Israel poll is correct, Gantz could get a strong and stable majority with Kulanu's support, and he wouldn't even need the Arab parties to do it. I don't believe that Kahlon wants to be part of a leftist government, but give him the treasury and ostensible veto power on legislation (as there is no majority without him) and you may very well have the first center left government in almost 30 years in Israel.

But I still think a national unity government under PM Gantz is the end game here, especially for Kahlon, and probably for Gantz/Lapid, too.

[Walmart_shopper]

What's interesting is that Kulanu, which Bibi would likely need to cross the threshold to stay in power and which may not actually cross the threshold, has been very quiet when everyone else in the Kahanist alliance has promised post-election support for Netanyahu as PM. If that Times of Israel poll is correct, Gantz could get a strong and stable majority with Kulanu's support, and he wouldn't even need the Arab parties to do it. I don't believe that Kahlon wants to be part of a leftist government, but give him the treasury and ostensible veto power on legislation (as there is no majority without him) and you may very well have the first center left government in almost 30 years in Israel.

Would the bunch of generals that make up Gantz' half of Blue and White even tolerate sitting with Meretz (which would be required for that Blue & White/Labor/Meretz/Kulanu alliance you're describing)?

 

Why not? The top brass of the military in Israel is generally viewed as left-leaning. And Meretz is actually more pragmatic than people realize. They've sat in government with the ultra orthodox before. Give them the education ministry and they'll be fine.

It won't be a leftist government, despite the endless amount of fearmongering coming out of Bibi's mouth these days. Will be strongly secular? Yeah, but so is most of the country. Will it emphasize equality under the law to beore inclusive of Israel's massive non Jewish minority population? Maybe. Will it withdraw from the West Bank and try Oslo again?  If course not. Obviously the election hinges on whether the right can make people believe that Gantz is a closet peacenik. He's not. And he knows he's not. So if he can convince enough voters that he's not then I think he'll be fine bringing Meretz on board to a government that won't shut down the settlements but will actually try to work towards the two state solution that most Israelis want. I think Gantz is fine with that. And I think Meretz is fine with that.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm sitting by my phone hoping that Nina Zemach or Rafi Smith will call. I would imagine they are probably in the field right now cooking something up for a post-indictment poll release tomorrow or Saturday evening.

[Walmart_shopper]

Radio 103 has the first poll after the announcement and for the first time in their polling the right is without a majority in the Knesset.

Blue and white 37
Likud 25
Union of Right-Wing Parties 10
New Right 8
Labor 7
Hadash/Taal 7
Meretz 6
Shas 6
UTJ 6
Kulanu 5

The right wing (including Kulanu) has 60. The center left (including the Arab parties) has 60.

My read is that there is a very slow dissolution of support on the right (maybe Likud voters sitting this one out or wasting their votes on Zehut). With Kulanu and without the Arab parties,  the center left is six seats away from a majority. If they can pick off those six seats then there is probably the next government. If not then perhaps a chastened Likud will agree to national unity (with Gideon Saar or Yisrael Katz leading the party). Otherwise, new elections, which I would imagine would be much worse for the right than for the left given the rising popularity of Blue and White.

On the other hand, the center left WITH Hadash/Taal is only 4 seats away from a majority.  A massive Arab turnout or high Tel Aviv turnout (which are both usually quite a bit lower than the rest of the country) could easily get to 61. If Likud refuses national unity then I wonder if the Arab parties are brought on board to prop up a minority government.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Americans are coming with a peace proposal right after the election, which is worth taking into account. The New Right are campaigning on it, saying a strong right to the right of Likud is needed in order to prevent a 2SS from taking place.

If an Israeli government assumes office that doesn't even want to take any negotiations or peace plan on a 2SS seriously, it would hurt the relationship with this American government as well as the next one (whether Republican or Democratic) as Trump may view it as a personal insult; it would also be bad for Israel's PR because it would erode the argument that Israel has no partner for peace, which may prompt unilateral steps from EU countries and the U.S.

A government that depends on the New Right, the Jewish Home and the National Union (let alone Otzma) cannot support a 2SS. From this point of view it would be in Israel's strategic interest if a government consisting of Blue and White and Likud would take office. Any Blue-and-White-led government without Likud would probably lack perceived legitimacy on the right (especially if such a government would depend on Tibi and Odeh), which could lead to a disaster and social chaos - like we've seen in the 90s, but worse. The left may not like it, but just like Social Democrats are generally needed in order to implement austere economic policies, it is probably Likud that is needed to implement a 2SS - but not in the driver's seat, as they won't be willing to make the final call.

I agree with every word.  It it's also worth noting that not only is the left-left pretty small in Israel, but the Gantz-Lapid alliance is ostensibly a centrist outfit supported almost entirely by left and center-left voters. If leftists aren't happy with a broad secular-centrist coalition then they have no business  voting for Gantz. And yet they are. As a leftist, and a Blue and White supporter, I can't say I speak for the entire Israeli left, but I'm perfectly happy with a broad, secular national unity government led by Benny Gantz that works together with Likud as a junior partner to find broadly agreeable and durable solutions for regional peace. It won't be as revolutionary as I want, but it might actually be healthier. And that alone is something. But it will be interesting to see if the drip away from the right continues or whether this winds up pretty close to 50/50 where it is now.

[Walmart_shopper]

Kahlons Positions seems to be in Conflict with what Kulanu Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton said in Beersheba today:
“We do not rule out any Zionist party, as long as it is not a situation of them forming a technical bloc alongside anti-Zionist parties who do not believe in Israel’s Zionist identity.
If Gantz manages to form a government with a true majority, without any anti-Zionist parties, then yes, we do not rule out that possibility,”

I suspect it is Kulanu´s Strategy to cloud their Position in Smoke in order to still appear in the Centre and be able to scoop up the Voters who are Jumping the Likud Ship because of the Corruption allegations, but who are not at all Comfortable with a Gantz Government backed by the Left.
Similar Strategy to what they ran on in 2015 to be honest, i still think that Kahlon will, like in 2015, not walk the talk and go with Netanyahu after the election.

One should not forget that Cultural-Voting Bloc Connections are Important in Israel and Kahlon has always been from the Mizrahim-Likud Part of Israeli Society and i suspect that will influence him strongly when playing Kingmaker.

Basically saying they will join a Blue and White gov if Blue and White, Labor, and Meretz win enough seats to govern on their own, which of course is impossible. Irrelevant statement.

No, no. They're just saying that don't want to be in a coalition with the Arab parties. If the center-left plus Kulanu can getto a majority, which is not at all impossible, then that will be the government.

The Niesenkorn ruse is baloney. Kahlon said that "at the moment" the center left is at odds with them, implying that after the election they'll probably more easily close the gaps that exist. Just a couple of weeks ago Niesenkorn told reporters he thought Kahlon was a good finance minister, even better than Lapid. Kahlon never ruled out sitting with Gantz and I think few doubt that he would he there in a heartbeat if finance was back on the table for him.

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 13 is out this morning with yet another poll.

Blue and white 38
Likud 30
Hadash Taal 9
Labor 8
Bayit Yehudi 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6
New Right 6
Kulanu 5
Shas 4

Center left 61
Right wing 59

[Walmart_shopper]

I read something that Gantz was accused by a woman of sexual harassment. How is the media reporting, or are they dismissing it as a "non story"?

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?  

Unless you consider Bibi TV a credible media outlet, it is now a non story. Bibi's indictment decision saturated everything.

It feels like 2015 every year because the left in Israel has Stockholm Syndrome. Netanyahu is a very crafty electoral politician, and we've seen the rabbit come out of the hat too many times to get complacent.

But this year really is different for a lot of different reasons. Benny Gantz is with legitimately excellent candidate for prime minister. Buji Herzog never came close to beating Netanyahu in the "who would you prefer to be the next prime minister" question that is always fairly determinative.  Gantz beat him in the Kan poll from this weekend. Second, the rightist bloc was always leading in 2015, but the question was whether Buji could sufficiently outperform Likud to get a crack at forming the government. Here the recent polls show that there is no credible coalition for Netanyahu that gets a majority. If Bibi poaches seats from his right wing partners he only digs the whole deeper. If he doesn't then he ensures that Gantz will get first shot at forming a government. For years the right has always wagged its finger about "the blocking blocs!  the blocking blocs!" This year the left gets to emphasize the blocs.

Also, look, the right is running a prime minister who was just indicted for fraud and bribery, the Shas leader will likely be indicted soon for using his position to commit fraud (again), the UTJ leader is under investigation for using his position to cover up Haredi sex abuse, Bennet is under investigation for a comparatively lighter campaign finance mistake, the Bayit Yehudi leader had to run together with Kahanists, and the only guy with clean hands is sending out smoke signals every which way that he's hoping he can leave the right wing coalition for something so little healthier.

That's a really, really bad look. The polls are so tight anything can happen, but this sure doesn't feel like 2015.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there any good polling of party support by income, education, or socioeconomic status? If not, could someone provude some broad strokes? Or are the differences comparatively trivial due to the dominance of non-tax and spend issues?

As a general rule Likud is the bastion of the poorer, especially Mizrahi working class who live in the area in Israel called the Periphery, which is pretty much anything outside of the wealthy and liberal "Center."  Labor is the party of the Ashkenazi upper class. However Yesh Atid with its emphasis on liberal economics and secularism has actually taken a big bite out of that apple. Meretz is the young people's party, especially in Tel Aviv and in liberal parts of Jerusalem (what few there are).

Older voters tend to be more faithful to the Labor Party of their youth. A lot of people say that young people are more likely to be on the right in Israel , but that's not actually true. Young voters are incredibly polarized, with many being strongly secular liberals who prefer a democratic euro-state, and the others being a very religious group that prefers a Jewish ethno-religious state. The truth, though, is that young voters in Israel are probably some of the most disengaged and disenchanted in the world. They are as a whole very secular and liberal on social and religious issues, but are probably more to the right on security issues. There is also a growing Haredi demographic that is, well, Haredi. There is also a growing demographic of ex-Haredi young people that are fairly anti-Haredi.

Politics is mostly about cultural and ideological identity, though. Labor is fairly centrist for a Labor party, economically,amd Likud is fairly centrist for a new economically liberal party. So there are not huge fissures on those issues. The big questions are really over the Palestinian question and,  perhaps even more than what, the degree to which Israel's democratic character should outweigh, if at all, its Jewish character. There are major issues with religion, race, and culture buries in there, which is why politics are so volatile here.

[Walmart_shopper]

Isn’t it also true that right and left do not divide on issues of class and income inequality in Israel. It’s more of an American style cleavage where left is all about being socially liberal and right is about being socially conservative so it’s line the way in the US Beverly Hills is strongly Democratic while West Virginia is Republican

It's also why opposition isn't as intense to the last right wing government as you'd expect given how far to the right of the average Israeli it has been. Tel Aviv is the bastion of the Israeli left, and it's also doing better economically than ever before. Likud has made a lot of people embarrassed for their country, but not for their pocketbooks. That won't change a lot of votes, but it will mute some opposition. As long as Tel Aviv is given some autonomy on religious issues (which they are, by court order) and can operate a robust, open, and liberal culture, they tend not to complain too much. They can afford a weekend trip to Berlin when they're getting too claustrophobic , thanks to the economy, so it's livable.

At some point, though, that drift to the right will start having dramatic economic and political implications. That's basically the cri de coeur of the center and left in Israel, and it seems like people are actually starting to believe it, which it probably took a right wing government to do. This election will be a big test of whether the massive Tel Aviv area will continue giving a big shrug to the right, or whether they'll take political control in addition to their economic control.

[Walmart_shopper]

Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

Is it me or are the Arab parties losing support relative to 2015.  Balad-Ra'am  at 1.6% and Hadash-Ta'a at 9 seats seems to indicate that they lost support since 2015 when compared to Joint List.  Where did those votes go or it this more about lower Arab turnout ?

In this particular poll, yes. The Arab parties, indeed the whole Arab sector, are notoriously hard to poll, though. They may be undecided or even voting for Blue and White, Meretz, or Labor. Their turnout may determine the election, though, and absolutely nobody has a clue what that will be.

[Walmart_shopper]

Panels poll for Walla:

Blue & White 36
Likud 31
Hadash-Ta'al 9
Labour 8
UTJ 7
URWP 7
New Right 6
Meretz 6
Kulanu 6
Shas 4

YB (2.8%), Gesher (2.7%), Zehut (2.6%), Balad-Ra'am (1.6%) and others below threshold

Right-religious 61
Center-left-coalitionable Arab 59

That is if we assume that Kulanu will prop up Bibi...from what i've read that is far from certAIN

Especially if that majority relies on one or two Kahanists for support. Kahlon threw a fit for four years about a majority of only 63. 60+the "deport the goyim" guy doesn't particularly sound like a formula to win over Kulanu. But who knows anymore.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Central Election Commission voted 16-15 to approve Ben-Ari's candidacy.

And it's already being petitioned to the Supreme Court.

[Walmart_shopper]

Moshe Kahlon's profile in courage was basically minted with his abstention on whether the ethnic cleansing party's Michael Ben Ari should be allowed to run. This is exactly how he rolls, though. He preens as "the sane right" and then rolls over for the insane right.

Apparently the police are actually considering prosecuting Ben Ari, who is also banned from entering the United States.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there any good polling of party support by income, education, or socioeconomic status? If not, could someone provude some broad strokes? Or are the differences comparatively trivial due to the dominance of non-tax and spend issues?

As a general rule Likud is the bastion of the poorer, especially Mizrahi working class who live in the area in Israel called the Periphery, which is pretty much anything outside of the wealthy and liberal "Center."  Labor is the party of the Ashkenazi upper class. However Yesh Atid with its emphasis on liberal economics and secularism has actually taken a big bite out of that apple. Meretz is the young people's party, especially in Tel Aviv and in liberal parts of Jerusalem (what few there are).

Older voters tend to be more faithful to the Labor Party of their youth. A lot of people say that young people are more likely to be on the right in Israel , but that's not actually true. Young voters are incredibly polarized, with many being strongly secular liberals who prefer a democratic euro-state, and the others being a very religious group that prefers a Jewish ethno-religious state. The truth, though, is that young voters in Israel are probably some of the most disengaged and disenchanted in the world. They are as a whole very secular and liberal on social and religious issues,but are probably more to the right on security issues. There is also a growing Haredi demographic that is, well, Haredi. There is also a growing demographic of ex-Haredi young people that are fairly anti-Haredi.

Politics is mostly about cultural and ideological identity, though. Labor is fairly centrist for a Labor party, economically,amd Likud is fairly centrist for a new economically liberal party. So there are not huge fissures on those issues. The big questions are really over the Palestinian question and,  perhaps even more than what, the degree to which Israel's democratic character should outweigh, if at all, its Jewish character. There are major issues with religion, race, and culture buries in there, which is why politics are so volatile here.

Thanks. Most of the economic analysis seems reasonable, but I want to push back a bit on the bolded point.

Pew did a very detailed study on religious practice in Israel and found the following among other things.



Unlike the Anglosphere, there doesn't seem to be any significant difference in religious practice between young and old Israeli Jews.

I think you read too much into what I wrote. I didn't say that younger Israelis were more secular than older Israelis. Only that they are on the whole quite secular, which your own data makes amply clear.

[Walmart_shopper]

Regarding Shas, and this is probably a dumb and slightly roundabout question - they always get described as a Haredi party. But to what extent is that actually the case? I mean, I was under the impression that their electorate was as much traditionalist and based around Mizrahi identity as much as anything else? And aren't the Haredi movements something that is much more Ashkenazi?

They are Haredim. There has been a definite Haredization of Orthodox Judaism that has created a situation in which even former Shadow leader Eli Yishai can plausibly head a settler party like Yahad. Shas usually tries to pick off Mizrahi and even a few Arab votes in the Peripheria, but it's definitely a Haredi party now. Thus why there isn't a lot of room to grow without eating into UTJ, which given the fact that sectarian and ethnic differences matter much more to Haredim than to ordinary Israelis is unlikely to happen.