I think yes. Wisconsin might be a wild card since it is the first “fair” state legislative elections this year since 2010. That could make Wisconsin a bit more D-leaning.
Nobody's going to show up to vote in a Presidential election, when they otherwise wouldn't, because of fair legislative maps. Just doesn't flow that way.
It’s not a turnout question, it’s a persuasion question. I’m not suggesting that people will turn out just for that, but rather the the people that do turnout will be persuaded to vote a bit more Dem-leaning, especially in places like Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Brown counties. The WisGOP is in a bit of a weird spot right now (see: recall attempts against Vos for certifying the election, unable to land a real solid candidate against Tammy Baldwin, etc) that might make the traditional GOP suburban areas move further left. I really think that WOW moving even a few points left would be really hard for the GOP to overcome.
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