WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[walleye26]

Regarding the rurals-I’ve mentioned this before, but with the exception of the Driftless, I don’t think the northern Wisconsin rurals can get much more R because of high Native American populations and retired Twin Cities/Chicago liberals. Places like Rusk County (where Biden got 31%), Taylor County (25%), Langlade (33%), Oconto (28%), Florence (26%), Polk (35%), Barron (36%) are all pretty heavily red. In places like Barron County, you have increasing Somali populations which are starting to register to vote, and rural areas like Sawyer County, Vilas County, Bayfield County, and Ashland County all have <10% Native populations that vote heavily D. Sprinkle in some retired Liberals in places like Minocqua, Spooner, Hayward, and Solon Springs, plus a few teachers & government employees and you should have a Dem floor of about 25% in most of those places.

However, the Driftless is a place that could cause some trouble for Wisconsin Democrats…if places like Crawford, Vernon, and Lafayette vote 70% R that’s a different story. I somewhat expect trends in places like Ozaukee County to balance that out, but we will see.

[walleye26]

I’ve noticed the past few weeks that Johnson has just been tearing into Barnes relentlessly and Barnes has had no response. None.

The WI GOP, Senate Leadership Find, Johnson, etc has been dumping a bunch into this race and I just have a feeling that Johnson is gonna pull away with this one. I haven’t seen any attack ads of any kind going after Johnson about anything-nothing about the fake electors, nothing about his anti-vac or pro January 6th comments. Pretty pathetic. The Dems have so much ammo on Johnson and they haven’t even fired a shot despite bleeding profusely.

[walleye26]

The thing is Wisconsin is such as close state the fact that they haven’t thrown a lot of money into a Biden-won state is bafflingly stupid.

[walleye26]

I’m really skeptical that Barnes wins this. Literally every time I get in my car I hear another radio ad attacking him, and I’ve heard zero response from Barnes. I haven’t seen any attack ads against RonJon for anything-not about his stupid Jan 6th comments, or his vaccine conspiracies, etc. RonJon and his Allies have destroyed Barnes, and no response. That’s why the polls are widening.

[walleye26]

I finally saw a Barnes attack ad against Johnson the other day. Hit him over abortion.

[walleye26]

I finally saw a Barnes attack ad against Johnson the other day. Hit him over abortion.

Have the ads seemed to be at more parity lately or is Johnson still owning the airwaves?

I am starting to see Barnes hit Johnson now. Still more Johnson ads, but Barnes is starting to catch up.

[walleye26]

Some of the attack ads against Barnes are kinda stupid and hilarious. They did hit Barnes for the condo tax issue, but they were like “Barnes bought a condo for $122,000” which to me seems like a pretty cheap condo. Enjoy the 1bd/1ba 400 sq ft place you got there. Another line from the ad is “Barnes bought tickets court side at a Bucks game!” Like, oh boy you got him there! How dare a Milwaukee Bucks fan buys tickets to a game!

It still won’t matter though. For the most part, Wisconsin is fine electing Liberals, as long as they are from Madison (see Tammy Baldwin, Tony Evers, and Jim Doyle) and they tend to reject Milwaukee politicians (see Tom Barrett).

[walleye26]

I know yard signs don’t vote, but I’ve driven all around the state and it’s just sad to see Johnson’s signs outnumbering Barnes’ 15-1.

[walleye26]

I know yard signs don’t vote, but I’ve driven all around the state and it’s just sad to see Johnson’s signs outnumbering Barnes’ 15-1.

What are you expecting the county map to look like? I'm assuming it will be similar to 2020, with Barnes winning largely the same counties that Biden did, and with rural areas swinging heavily Republican compared to 2016.

I think it will be the 2020 map + Barnes narrowly winning Columbia County, maybe a Driftless county that has a college (Grant, Dunn, or Pierce).

[walleye26]

I know yard signs don’t vote, but I’ve driven all around the state and it’s just sad to see Johnson’s signs outnumbering Barnes’ 15-1.

? I live in a rural area and if anything, the typical democrat homes have been putting their signs up more reliably than the republican homes and id say that's true of most areas ive driven through in the state.   Its also one of the most useless metrics of voter support since only partisans who are loud and proud put out signs anyways.

What part of the state are you in? I have been driving through Chippewa, Clark, Rusk, Jackson, Eau Claire, Juneau, Monroe, Sauk, Portage, Marathon, and Columbia.

[walleye26]

From what I’ve seen on the ground here, I think there has been a definite shift towards Johnson. Evers seems to be holding close, so as of now I think Evers will barely squeak by but I think this will end up about Johnson +4.

[walleye26]

From what I’ve seen on the ground here, I think there has been a definite shift towards Johnson. Evers seems to be holding close, so as of now I think Evers will barely squeak by but I think this will end up about Johnson +4.

What about on the governor’s side?

I think Evers has a bit more of a shot since he’s is doing (slightly) better in polling, and a fair amount of moderates realize Evers will have a GOP legislature. I know of a few moderate/GOP leaning folks who are voting Evers because they know that he won’t be able to pass any laws and they are annoyed with Robin Vos’ crap.

[walleye26]

How fun would it be if Marquette threw in a Barnes +2 poll tomorrow and send Twitter into a frenzy on all ends.

Well, this didn't happen. I'm moving WI-Sen to safe R (from likely R for most of the year). The Republican machine is out in full force this year, taking advantage of Biden's poor job performance and the usual midterms backlash against the incumbent party. There's no chance Barnes walks away with this race. My main question at this point is how different the map looks from 2016. Here are my predicted county flips from 2016 (all D to R), from most likely to least likely:

- Richland (Safe R)
- Lafayette (Safe R)
- Vernon (Safe R)
- Columbia (Likely R)
- Sauk (Likely R)
- Portage (Likely R)
- Green (Lean R)

Uh, Green, Sauk and Columbia are not Likely R. They are all Toss up. Lots of outward Dane County spillover is present there. Columbia county is actually a pretty good indicator statewide, for state level races like Gov it’s a bit bluer than the state as a whole, for federal races a bit redder. Considering Trump only won Columbia by 500ish votes out of 33,000+, it’s very much competitive.

I would say Portage and Sauk are Tilt D/Tossup. The wild card in Portage is Turnout from the college. I would think young kids might get fired up about abortion, and Point is a pretty liberal campus. 

Don’t get me wrong, Columbia could be won by Johnson but no way it’s likely.

I do agree with Lafayette, Richland, and Vernon though. Those all would seem to be places RonJon could flip, and easily.