Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[walleye26]

The daily in-person number continues to go up each day in Madison.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1640903701865832449?s=20

The last Saturday before the Feb 21st primary was roughly double the previous week averages. There were like 1200 voters on Saturday the 18th compared to about 6-700 during the week. If that is also true this time around, we can expected about 3,000 voters to show up in Madison come Saturday. I think it’s possible that Madison exceeds the 44,000 voters that showed up by 2pm on the primary day before voting even starts. That would point to huge turnout.

I also think the Madison mayoral election is having a big impact. Incumbent Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway has been very strongly pushing high density housing and Bus Rapid Transit public transportation, whereas her conservative challenger Gloria Reyes is strongly opposed to the public transport. I think some Madisonians are thinking there may be possibility of a “conservative” mayor very seriously and are voting accordingly.

[walleye26]

Early vote analysis is quite frankly little more than astrology. There’s no real way to know whether the high turnout is going to be counteracted by high Election Day turnout or not.

Charles Franklin, the due behind the Marquette poll, is estimating 1.4 million votes which means we are still waiting on ~1.3 million more voters.

My model projects 1.44 million voters.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641260605469278209?cxt=HHwWgoC2zeX09s...

Madison is crushing it.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641433897153044480?cxt=HHwWgIC9odnbxc...

Yeah, Madison will definitely beat the primary 2pm number before Election Day.

[walleye26]

I’m also keeping an eye on the weather…it looks like next Tuesday could bring a real mess to parts of Wisconsin above highway 8 or 70…right now it’s looking like snow/freezing rain will be north of 70 and rain/freezing rain between 70 and 8. Obviously with spring weather this could change, but that could mess with turnout up north.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641635645691969536?cxt=HHwWgIC2gYG7oc...

I bet Madison gets 2,000+ on Saturday.

[walleye26]

Madison did work today

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641974824384774145?s=20

That’s over 40,000 early votes by my count. Over 20% turnout in Madison.

Also, I think the reason WOW turnout is so high is because of the Senate 8th special election. It has Richfield and Germantown in Washington, Menominee Falls, Lannon, and parts of Sussex/Lisbon in Waukesha, and Mequon, Thiensville, and Cedarburg in Ozaukee. It also has Bayside, Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, and Brown Deer in MKE county.

[walleye26]

Madison did work today

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641974824384774145?s=20

That’s over 40,000 early votes by my count. Over 20% turnout in Madison.

Also, I think the reason WOW turnout is so high is because of the Senate 8th special election. It has Richfield and Germantown in Washington, Menominee Falls, Lannon, and parts of Sussex/Lisbon in Waukesha, and Mequon, Thiensville, and Cedarburg in Ozaukee. It also has Bayside, Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, and Brown Deer in MKE county.

iirc those areas are Rich ash especially Whitefish

Yes super rich. Whitefish is jokingly called “White Folks Bay” and Fox Point and Bayside are nice addresses to have too. They are now super liberal too.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1642308664697450496?cxt=HHwWgMCzre_B08...

Add another 2,000 out of Madison. Turnout will be interesting to see on Tuesday.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1642539929866498153?cxt=HHwW0sGzkaPXvM...

Madison added 642 early voters today, which brings them up to just over 42,000 absentee requests and nearly 36,000 returned (not including the ones showing up in the mail tomorrow and Tuesday, or dropped off at poll sites on Tuesday).

At 4pm on Feb 21st, there were just over 44,000 voters that had voted in Madison. Basically, in early voting alone Madison has equaled their turnout from 4pm of Election Day. That’s nuts. Election Day will be interesting for sure.

[walleye26]

Alright folks, it’s wrapping up. Tomorrow’s weather for the entire state will be horse***t with some bull***t as a side. Southern Wisconsin from LaCrosse to Sheboygan could get hit with 60 mph winds, tornadoes, and hail. Central Wisconsin will get heavy winds and downpours, and north of highway 8 will see freezing rain, snow, and blizzard conditions. Blizzard and winter storm warnings are already out in the Duluth TV market (Douglas, Burnett, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, and Iron Counties). Link to alerts is here, from the Duluth TV station: https://www.wdio.com/weather-alert/

As a result, I’ve made a few minor tweaks to my election model. All counties that contain highway 70 and north (Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, Phillips, Vilas, Iron, Oneida, Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas) I have subtracted two percentage points from turnout. I also subtracted 2 percentage points from Grant, Lafayette, Green, Rock, Walworth, Jefferson, Racine, and Kenosha Counties, as these are where we could see tornadoes. While Dane, Iowa, Crawford, Sauk, Columbia, Waukesha, Dodge, and MKE are also in the severe weather area, the storms are moving south to north so they wouldn’t be effected until the last hour or so of voting with minimal impacts. Also, Democrats have a lot of early banked votes up. I expect Election Day votes to lean R about 60/40 or so, so I added up the total number of votes in the aforementioned counties and multiplied it by 0.02 and then again by 0.2 (20% R-lean with a 2% drop) and then by my vote estimates to see how that would change things. The result: Kelly “loses” 1,233 votes due to weather. Additionally, I increased Dane’s turnout by 3% because of high amounts of early voting, which adds another 2,400 votes for Janet. My model ends up with Janet getting a margin of +62,359 votes. I also reduced my estimate from 1.44 million votes down to 1.41 million votes due to weather, meaning I have Janet winning by 4.4%, 52.2 to 47.8.

Counties won by Janet:
MKE: 63-37
Dane: 83-17
Rock 61-39
LaCrosse 60-40
Eau Claire 59-41
Portage 56-44
Sauk 57-43
Grant 51-49
Columbia 53-47
Douglas 57-43
Dunn 51-49
Pierce 51-49
Green 58-42
Door 53-47
Vernon 56-44
Trempealeau 55-45
Iowa 63-37
Jackson 52-48
Bayfield 57-43
Ashland 55-45 (bad weather reduces tribal turnout)
Richland 54-46
Crawford 54-46
Menominee 68-32

Largest Counties won by Kelly:
Waukesha 62-38
Brown 54-46
Racine 55-45
Outagamie 55-45
Kenosha 52-48
Washington 70-30
Marathon 58-42
Sheboygan 60-40
Walworth 59-41
Fond Du Lac 61-39
St Croix 55-45
Ozaukee 55-45
Dodge 65-35
Jefferson 58-42

Winnebago County TIED.

[walleye26]

Alright folks, it’s wrapping up. Tomorrow’s weather for the entire state will be horse***t with some bull***t as a side. Southern Wisconsin from LaCrosse to Sheboygan could get hit with 60 mph winds, tornadoes, and hail. Central Wisconsin will get heavy winds and downpours, and north of highway 8 will see freezing rain, snow, and blizzard conditions. Blizzard and winter storm warnings are already out in the Duluth TV market (Douglas, Burnett, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, and Iron Counties). Link to alerts is here, from the Duluth TV station: https://www.wdio.com/weather-alert/

As a result, I’ve made a few minor tweaks to my election model. All counties that contain highway 70 and north (Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, Phillips, Vilas, Iron, Oneida, Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas) I have subtracted two percentage points from turnout. I also subtracted 2 percentage points from Grant, Lafayette, Green, Rock, Walworth, Jefferson, Racine, and Kenosha Counties, as these are where we could see tornadoes. While Dane, Iowa, Crawford, Sauk, Columbia, Waukesha, Dodge, and MKE are also in the severe weather area, the storms are moving south to north so they wouldn’t be effected until the last hour or so of voting with minimal impacts. Also, Democrats have a lot of early banked votes up. I expect Election Day votes to lean R about 60/40 or so, so I added up the total number of votes in the aforementioned counties and multiplied it by 0.02 and then again by 0.2 (20% R-lean with a 2% drop) and then by my vote estimates to see how that would change things. The result: Kelly “loses” 1,233 votes due to weather. Additionally, I increased Dane’s turnout by 3% because of high amounts of early voting, which adds another 2,400 votes for Janet. My model ends up with Janet getting a margin of +62,359 votes. I also reduced my estimate from 1.44 million votes down to 1.41 million votes due to weather, meaning I have Janet winning by 4.4%, 52.2 to 47.8.

Counties won by Janet:
MKE: 63-37
Dane: 83-17
Rock 61-39
LaCrosse 60-40
Eau Claire 59-41
Portage 56-44
Sauk 57-43
Grant 51-49
Columbia 53-47
Douglas 57-43
Dunn 51-49
Pierce 51-49
Green 58-42
Door 53-47
Vernon 56-44
Trempealeau 55-45
Iowa 63-37
Jackson 52-48
Bayfield 57-43
Ashland 55-45 (bad weather reduces tribal turnout)
Richland 54-46
Crawford 54-46
Menominee 68-32

Largest Counties won by Kelly:
Waukesha 62-38
Brown 54-46
Racine 55-45
Outagamie 55-45
Kenosha 52-48
Washington 70-30
Marathon 58-42
Sheboygan 60-40
Walworth 59-41
Fond Du Lac 61-39
St Croix 55-45
Ozaukee 55-45
Dodge 65-35
Jefferson 58-42

Winnebago County TIED.

Reposted to clarify these county results would be a 4.4% Janet win, assuming approx 40% turnout statewide.

[walleye26]

It should be clear who won by about 9 if it’s a blowout, 10:30 if it’s close. WI counts fast. Also, most places dump absentees last, MKE uses a central count location so they usually finish late.

[walleye26]

The Madison mayor’s race is VERY contentious and I’m expecting high turnout because of that.

[walleye26]

Currently standing in line at my polling place in Portage. HUGE lines. Turnout will be very high.

[walleye26]

Currently standing in line at my polling place in Portage. HUGE lines. Turnout will be very high.

Portage County if you don't mind me asking?

Portage City, Columbia County.

[walleye26]

Currently standing in line at my polling place in Portage. HUGE lines. Turnout will be very high.

Portage County if you don't mind me asking?

Portage City, Columbia County.

Evers got 51 percent in your county in 2022.

62% in Portage

Honestly i do wonder how Portage city has remained so dem is it just like a mix of state employees at the prison and people looking for Low CoL place close to madison? Because there has been pretty substantial swings to Rs in other parts of Columbia county.

Portage has stayed democratic because it’s CoL is super cheap (rents are like $700 for a 1bd/bath apartment with underground heated parking), it’s only about 30 minutes from Madison, so some Madison spillover, lots of state employees at the prison who got screwed over by Walker (Act 10 screwed them over) as well as a fair amount of government services since it’s the county seat.

Also, I asked the poll worker if there was high turnout and she said at 4pm it had crossed 2500 (including absentees) which is roughly 35% turnout.

[walleye26]

Is it expected that Dan Kelly will start out ahead until the Milwaukee absentees are added later in the night?

I think only if it's super close.  This isn't 2020 anymore.  Most people are voting today.

~33,000 votes out of Milwaukee.

Is that 33,000 number meaning that there are 33,000 absentees that will be dumped late?

[walleye26]

I have my Sirius Black “I did my waiting-12 years of it! In Azkaban!” Photo saved and ready to send to all my friends if this goes Janet’s way.

[walleye26]

Ozaukee is going Janet 55-45 with 8% in at the moment…1773 votes to 1422

[walleye26]

Most of the vote in Dane is coming from the Town of Blooming Grove, village of Dane, town of Dane, and Mazomaine…these areas are more R than Madison itself. This should become more Janet friendly as the night goes on.

[walleye26]

Janet is up 100K with Waukesha 71% in, Dodge 71% in, and half of Dane still out? This is over.

[walleye26]

On the Ozaukee county’s website, two precincts are still out in SD-8…Mequon ward 14-16 (voted Janet+Mitchell 52% on Feb 21) could need Jodi about 100ish votes. The bayside ward only has 89 registered voters, but usually votes like 2:1 D so that could be like 32-16 (in raw votes).

[walleye26]

In SD-8, village of Richfield in Washington County (population 12,000, approx 75-25 Trump) still hasn’t reported any votes. This will probably mean Jodi will lose the lead; that being said, she does have two wards in Ozaukee that could net her ~200 votes yet.

Buckle up.

[walleye26]

The two Ozaukee county precincts just posted, and Jodi added 214 votes to her lead.