Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

That candidate gap is insane

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1641073258916204544

Would love to know what the ad rates are for candidates vs outside groups. I know the difference can be massive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I love how they've misspelled "Supreme" in the more recent tweet.

[Gass3268]

Today's report:

[Gass3268]

Slightly less worried about the WOW turnout after seeing this:

https://twitter.com/Simon_El_Gato__/status/1641077761933492225?s=20

Most of the big turnout areas are places that have seen big swings to the left.

[GALeftist]

Early vote analysis is quite frankly little more than astrology. There’s no real way to know whether the high turnout is going to be counteracted by high Election Day turnout or not.

[Gass3268]

Early vote analysis is quite frankly little more than astrology. There’s no real way to know whether the high turnout is going to be counteracted by high Election Day turnout or not.

Charles Franklin, the due behind the Marquette poll, is estimating 1.4 million votes which means we are still waiting on ~1.3 million more voters.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I just read about this race, while I knew this race was important, I did not know that this seat could give a majority to the liberals on the bench!! That would be great, considering how gerrymandered Wisconsin is.

[walleye26]

Early vote analysis is quite frankly little more than astrology. There’s no real way to know whether the high turnout is going to be counteracted by high Election Day turnout or not.

Charles Franklin, the due behind the Marquette poll, is estimating 1.4 million votes which means we are still waiting on ~1.3 million more voters.

My model projects 1.44 million voters.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641260605469278209?cxt=HHwWgoC2zeX09s...

Madison is crushing it.

[Orwell]

Patience Roggensack is actually one of my high school friends grandma. I think the chick wins this Liberals take a 4-3 lead in WISCO SC

[Hope For A New Era]

We believe in you Dane

[UWS]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1640420637398433795

[Gass3268]

Kelly campaign lying? No way!

https://twitter.com/journalsentinel/status/1641404160598761475?s=20

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641433897153044480?cxt=HHwWgIC9odnbxc...

Yeah, Madison will definitely beat the primary 2pm number before Election Day.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641433897153044480?cxt=HHwWgIC9odnbxc...

Yeah, Madison will definitely beat the primary 2pm number before Election Day.

With numbers like this Dane County could be able to counter Waukesha and decide the whole election,

[walleye26]

I’m also keeping an eye on the weather…it looks like next Tuesday could bring a real mess to parts of Wisconsin above highway 8 or 70…right now it’s looking like snow/freezing rain will be north of 70 and rain/freezing rain between 70 and 8. Obviously with spring weather this could change, but that could mess with turnout up north.

[Gass3268]

I’m also keeping an eye on the weather…it looks like next Tuesday could bring a real mess to parts of Wisconsin above highway 8 or 70…right now it’s looking like snow/freezing rain will be north of 70 and rain/freezing rain between 70 and 8. Obviously with spring weather this could change, but that could mess with turnout up north.

So not too different weather from the spring primary were there was snow up north.

[Nhoj]

Slightly less worried about the WOW turnout after seeing this:

https://twitter.com/Simon_El_Gato__/status/1641077761933492225?s=20

Most of the big turnout areas are places that have seen big swings to the left.

Just for anyone that doesn't know there are various local elections going on as well including school referenda. So, some areas are going to end up with higher turnout than others in somewhat random seeming ways.

[Gass3268]

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641635645691969536?cxt=HHwWgIC2gYG7oc...

I bet Madison gets 2,000+ on Saturday.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Kelly campaign lying? No way!

https://twitter.com/journalsentinel/status/1641404160598761475?s=20

When you’ve run out of strategic you start banging the table

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't pay attention to UWS and 2016 they forgot they were wrong about AK and Palin, they thought Palin would win and Mary Peltola won, RS never acknowledge that mistake, and he still thinks it's a red wave happening

[GeorgiaModerate]

Excellent in-depth article on the SCOWIS race from Crystal Ball (specifically Atlas alum J. Miles Coleman).

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/what-to-watch-for-in-the-wisconsin-supreme-court-race/

[Skill and Chance]

I’m also keeping an eye on the weather…it looks like next Tuesday could bring a real mess to parts of Wisconsin above highway 8 or 70…right now it’s looking like snow/freezing rain will be north of 70 and rain/freezing rain between 70 and 8. Obviously with spring weather this could change, but that could mess with turnout up north.

So not too different weather from the spring primary were there was snow up north.

I doubt snow in northern Wisconsin is going to prevent anyone from voting LOL.

In general, speculation about weather impacts always tends to be overblown, and doubly so in the North.  The most plausible scenario to actually alter statewide election outcomes would be an early season winter storm that unexpectedly drops over a foot of snow in the mountains of GA/NC/VA/PA the night before the election while there is basically just drizzle in the major cities (and/or most of the Dems have already voted).  That's a reasonably common east cost winter storm track, but early November would be almost out of season for it.   

[Oryxslayer]

I’m also keeping an eye on the weather…it looks like next Tuesday could bring a real mess to parts of Wisconsin above highway 8 or 70…right now it’s looking like snow/freezing rain will be north of 70 and rain/freezing rain between 70 and 8. Obviously with spring weather this could change, but that could mess with turnout up north.

So not too different weather from the spring primary were there was snow up north.

I doubt snow in northern Wisconsin is going to prevent anyone from voting LOL.

In general, speculation about weather impacts always tends to be overblown, and doubly so in the North.  The most plausible scenario to actually alter statewide election outcomes would be an early season winter storm that unexpectedly drops over a foot of snow in the mountains of GA/NC/VA/PA the night before the election while there is basically just drizzle in the major cities (and/or most of the Dems have already voted).  That's a reasonably common east cost winter storm track, but early November would be almost out of season for it.  

I mean we quite literally have proof in the turnout data that the blizzard which his much of northern WI during round 1 suppressed turnout and indirectly ever so slightly benefited Dems slightly cause of early voting. Of course were talking marginal impacts here, since as you could tell from the reports above most voters for both parties in WI go Eday. Now next week, well unless you are expecting several feet of snow in April, the impact probably won't be noticeable.