Washington state megathread

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Two incumbent Republican legislators were defeated in intra-party contests: State Representative Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee and State Senator Dan Swecker of Rochester.

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Two incumbent Republican legislators were defeated in intra-party contests: State Representative Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee and State Senator Dan Swecker of Rochester.

Do we know why? Did they lose to more conservative Republicans or did the top 2 system allow Democrats to replace them with someone more moderate?

Not sure. Armstrong had a close races in 2010 as well but he outraised his opponent, wasn't scandal plagued and his district didn't change much this year. Swecker had a lot of new territory added to his district but similarly had no scandal and outraised his opponent.

Perhaps Ds in the district chose to vote for the outsider Republican instead the Republican incumbent they've grown to dislike?

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We pulled ahead in the 17th LD Senate and House race today, much to my surprise. Lead in the Senate race is 16 votes; 81 in the House race. Both within the margin of recount.

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I want King County precinct results

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Here are some student-dominated precincts:
Pullman 131: 80 votes in 2008 down to 19 in 2012
Pullman 132: 70 to 14
Pullman 133: 34 to 13
Pullman 134: 156 to 61

Obviously more ballots will be counted, but it seems likely that turnout is greatly down among students. And those first three precincts are pretty much exclusively students. I bet there are lots of precincts where students went from being 1/2 the vote to 1/4, 1/3 to 1/6, etc. The more suburban parts of Pullman are a lot more conservative, and I doubt their turnout decreased as much.

WSU is also the kind of school where people voted for Obama because it was cool to do so in 2008. It's never been a particularly liberal school and is simply returning to its standard voting habits.

Don't students vote in their home county? When I was going to UW I never bothered to change my voter registration, I just had my parents forward me my ballot.

It varies. If your parents never encouraged you to register to vote or don't even vote themselves then it's entirely possible you would never even register until you get to college.

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So could we actually end up with 27-22 again in 2014? I looked through the seats up. The only obvious targets I noticed would be Kilmer's seat for Republicans and Hill's for Democrats. The Republicans might also try for Hobbs' seat I guess, but if he survived 2010 I'm inclined to think he's favored.

We will probably lose Kilmer's seat in the 2013 special election if State Rep. Jan Angel runs. She is very popular in the 26th.

The obvious target in 2014 is Hill but they'll also make a go at Joe Fain in the 47th I suspect. Baumgartner could be in danger in the 6th if Chris Marr makes a comback bid.

Pam Roach is also up in 2014 but I feel about her the same way I do about Michele Bachmann - controversial enough to make it close but still tantalizingly out of reach.

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^^ That analysis ignores the fact that McKenna agrees with the national brand and the Tea Party on Obamacare, marriage equality, taxes, and most other issues except perhaps choice (and even there he is by no means pro-choice; he's just not rabidly pro-life).

McKenna ran on standard Republican proposals that Washington voters have consistently rejected. They did so once again. The only reason this was close was 1) McKenna has a good resume and was well-known statewide and 2) his campaign was mildly successful in branding him as moderate.

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Two disturbing State Senate stories today:

- Rep. Jan Angel will indeed run in the 26th LD special election next fall for Kilmer's old seat. Our odds of holding the seat have now dropped considerably.

- More immediately worrying, Tim Sheldon and Rodney Tom have announced that if they hold the balance of power in the Senate (which they will if Don Benton is re-elected down in the 17th) they will force some sort of bizarre bipartisan Senate arrangement wherein both parties would control committee chairmanships and floor authority: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/11/12/tim-sheldon-rodney-tom-hope-to-force-power-sharing-arrangement-in-senate/

In short, losing the 17th LD race will mean Democrats have lost control of the State Senate.

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Mark Hargrove is a Republican elected to the State House in 2010 from the 47th LD (he looks to have survived his challenge this year 50.31% to 49.69%).

There's been at least one attempt to challenge Sheldon in the past but it wasn't very successful (he's been in office for eons and is well-liked in his district). Tom likely will get a challenger (labor is probably already looking for someone). Hopefully he doesn't get a dime in financial assistance from the Senate Democratic caucus in his re-election bid.

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Uh oh indeed

In brighter news, Ed Murray just got elected leader of the Senate Democratic caucus. He's not the first LGBT caucus leader in a state legislature (the Speaker of the California Assembly is gay) but he is the first in Washington and the first to lead an upper chamber.

This is also a pretty clear indication he isn't going to be running for Mayor of Seattle.

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Benton ahead by 110 votes. Looks to be nearly over to me.

Stonier ahead by 43 votes in the House race.

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Tom and Republican Leader Mike Hewitt are openly talking about installing Tom as Majority Leader of a coalition made up of Republicans, Sheldon and Tom.

On the plus side, I see no way this twit gets re-elected.

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Today Benton leads by 95 votes; Stonier by 75. Maybe a couple hundred ballots left countywide. 1600 ballots left countywide.

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The ability to have competitive intra-party elections in certain districts is a fun aspect of top-two, but eventually there will be a D vs. D or an R vs. R race for a major office like Governor or Senator. The public will be aghast, opinion will quickly turn against the system, and it'll be abandoned soon afterwards. This could take decades, but eventually it will happen.

Also, as I've written in past posts here, a top-two system significantly decreases public input into who will be major party candidates in competitive races. There is an invisible primary that occurs behind the scenes between major donors and party political leaders to make sure that the scenario I described above doesn't happen (more so than there is in other states). Jay Inslee didn't run unopposed for Governor on the Democratic side this year because everyone just liked him so much.

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This coalition Senate majority is looking more and more like a done deal. Hewitt announced yesterday that he's declining to run for Senate Republican leader. In his statement he praised the type of arrangement that would lead to Tom becoming Majority Leader: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/11/16/mike-hewitt-wont-lead-senate-republicans/

Hewitt also gave a quote where he says Tom considered becoming Ways and Means Chair or Majority Leader and decided he'd prefer Majority Leader: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/11/17/2370692/hewitt-wont-lead-gops-senators.html

Meanwhile, Benton leads by 96 votes after Friday's count with 2300 ballots remaining countywide. Stonier leads by 100 in the House race.

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I guess this gives Probst a better shot since there are now more ballots that could allow him to make up the difference, but there's nothing about these ballots specifically that seems like they should help him.

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I'm pretty surprised University Place voted in favor. I figured the Mormon presence would kill it there.

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Extra ballots in Clark look to have been of no help; Probst behind by 105 after today's count. Stonier leads by 120. 1350 ballots left countywide.

Both of these races will go to hand recounts it looks like... still don't expect the final result to be affected.

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Here's something kind of fun to ponder (numbers as of 4:30 PM on 11/19):

Total votes cast for President: 3,055,114 (98.5% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-502: 3,026,689 (97.6% of ballots)
Total votes cast for R-74: 3,022,577 (97.5% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Governor: 3,003,292 (96.9% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Senator: 3,001,184 (96.8% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-1240: 2,943,535 (94.9% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-1185: 2,897,011 (93.4% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Supreme Court, Pos. 9: 2,400,748 (77.4% of ballots)

Total ballots returned: 3,100,831

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She would have won Spokane if the nominee wasn't Baumgartner (though if the nominee wasn't Baumgartner she may not have gotten 60% I suppose...)

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When the only guidance for low information Democratic voters is gender...

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Here's a photo album of Jaime Herrera Beutler and two pugs: http://photo.kochfoto.com/Portraits/CBLPI/Jaime-Herrera-Beutler-2011/17562319_3T5tWK#!i=1337290823&k=RgwmnJr

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Inslee is at 51.45% and the only counties with more than 1000 ballots outstanding are King, Snohomish, Thurston and Whatcom (all counties he won). Could he get above 51.5 and thus with rounding 52-48?

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Inslee's up to 51.52% - fingers crossed!

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https://www.facebook.com/SaveUpFrontWithRobertMakOnKing5