Will D.C. Ever Go Republican?

[Meeker]

Sorry for the bump, but let's say John Edwards vs. popular incumbent. We learn of Edwards' affair the week before the election. Still Dem hold?

Still guaranteed at least 65% of the vote I'd say.

[Meeker]

It'd have to be even more than that. Democrats win D.C. about 90-10 in presidential elections that are about 50-50 nationwide. Given the 90-10 split, Republicans would need a swing of about 41 points to win D.C. If you assume the same swing nationally, the Republican candidate would need to get about 91% of the vote nationwide for the swing in D.C. to equal a victory.

Obviously such a situation will never occur. Therefore, D.C. will never go Republican.

(This all of course assumes we stay under the current party system.)

[Meeker]

If Republicans ever begin to win African Americans again, on a large scale or at least 55% of them, DC would become competitive.

This.  DC is comprised of Less-affluent African-Americans, African-American Government Employees, White Government Employees, and White Liberals.  If any of those groups suddenly jumps to the GOP coalition, DC becomes competitive.  See 1994 D.C. Mayoral Election.

A 56-42 loss is hardly "competitive".

[Meeker]

If Republicans ever begin to win African Americans again, on a large scale or at least 55% of them, DC would become competitive.

This.  DC is comprised of Less-affluent African-Americans, African-American Government Employees, White Government Employees, and White Liberals.  If any of those groups suddenly jumps to the GOP coalition, DC becomes competitive.  See 1994 D.C. Mayoral Election.

A 56-42 loss is hardly "competitive".

Competitive as far as DC as concerned, especially as some people in this thread are like "zomg DC will always go 75%+ Dem forever".

Now, Schwartz getting to 50% in that election may have been a much steeper climb. A third party black candidate may have been able to split the vote, but there's a risk such a candidate would attract a lot of protest votes that were going to Schwartz.

I don't really think "competitive as far as DC is concerned" really makes sense. Either something is competitive - either side can win - or it isn't. "Competitive as far as DC is concerned" still means it's not close to winnable for the Republicans and therefore isn't competitive.