Gillibrand could be in serious trouble.

[Meeker]

I don't understand what happened here. What caused both Cuomo and Gillibrand to all of a sudden drop 10-15 points in every statewide poll?

[Meeker]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

Indeed. 2008 exits had it at 50D-26R-25I while this is 44D-35R-20I. This is going to be a different electorate from 2008 of course, but I find it difficult to believe it's as different as SUSA seems to think.

[Meeker]

Another very Republican sample... but still... what the hell...

Indeed. 2008 exits had it at 50D-26R-25I while this is 44D-35R-20I. This is going to be a different electorate from 2008 of course, but I find it difficult to believe it's as different as SUSA seems to think.

Why is everyone, including Nate Silver, comparing turnout for Presidential election years to the recently released New York polls?  2006 would be better for comparison.  Those exits were 47D-27I-25R.   The Dem percentage is off by a whopping 3 points, which is perfectly reasonable given 2006 was a Democratic year and this year isn't.

To be honest I only went with 2008 numbers because I had them lying around and didn't want to look up 2006 ones.

I could believe 44D but I think 35R and 20I are a little fishy.