Virginia 2009 Megathread

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Guys, the sign war is one of the hallmarks of Shad Planking. It's stupid, but a lot of candidates do it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's hard to say, given that there hasn't been a seriously-contested gubernatorial primary in decades. I'll guess between 400,000 and 500,000.

Edit: Actually, I forgot the Webb/Miller primary had so few votes in it. I'm going to revise my estimate down to about 300,000.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The regional crosstabs in that poll are kind of screwed up. There is no way that "Shenandoah" (SWVA) is going to outvote any of the other regions.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Lt. Governor primary, since I'm the only one interested in that:

Jody Wagner - 18 (21)
Mike Signer - 7 (4)
Jon Bowerbank - 6 (4)

Poor Jon Bowerbank, he can't catch a break.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alexandria municipal elections were today. Unopposed D mayor, 5 incumbent and 1 open D council seats up. Looks like a Republican and an Independent won and two incumbent Ds lost, so there's some (small) good news for the GOP.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alexandria municipal elections were today. Unopposed D mayor, 5 incumbent and 1 open D council seats up. Looks like a Republican and an Independent won and two incumbent Ds lost, so there's some (small) good news for the GOP.

Weren't there a couple of special elections in that part of the state recently where Democratic turnout was abysmal and the Republican squeaked in?

Just one -- a Board of Supervisors seat in Fairfax that a Republican won 51-49. The other two (Brian Moran's House seat and the chairmanship of the Fairfax BoS vacated by Gerry Connolly) were held by Dems, barely.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hmm, didn't even realize it was that soon. Terry will probably pull it off. Sucks.

Isn't it strange? In 2001 and 2005 it was so important for the Democrats to pick the perfect candidate who would do everything right, as needed to win in Virginia... and now it's 2009 and Terry McAuliffe could become the nominee? I don't understand that state.

I think there are several factors in play here. First, there's no clear successor to the incumbent Governor. In 2005, Kaine was the natural successor to Warner as his Lt. Governor. Warner himself was the most viable candidate in 2001, having run statewide before and been the chairman of the state Democratic Party. Now we really don't have anyone of note in the state -- Warner's in the Senate, the AG and LG seats are held by Republicans, and no sitting Congressman is going to give up a seat for four years in the governor's mansion.

Second, there's the fact that Virginia has no campaign contribution limits, allowing Terry to pull out his rolodex and get the checks flowing. Neither Moran nor Deeds can compete on a fundraising level.

Third, there's the fact that Terry, really, has run a better campaign than Moran. Moran's campaign has been terrible, consultant-laden drivel based on swatting at Terry every chance he gets. It's been pretty pathetic. Terry's actually had the balls to travel throughout Virginia and face the voters.

Now, I have to admit, despite being a Deeds supporter, I've been contemplating voting for Moran if it ends up being close, but Moran's campaign has turned me off so much that I'm voting for Deeds regardless. So I'm not quite sure if Moran would actually be a better candidate than Terry in the general at this point.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jon Bowerbank is the third Lt. Governor candidate to drop out of the race, so it's gone from a 5-candidate Democratic primary to 2.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Who is left and can you explain their positions to me?

I've been keeping track of the candidates in the original post of this thread. Jody Wagner is running a more mainstream, center-left campaign, whereas Mike Signer is running as a progressive. But really, the only issue they've had a significant disagreement on lately is EFCA: Wagner supports the status quo in Virginia, Signer has been vocally supportive of EFCA. (Not that it would seem to matter what the Lt. Governor of Virginia thinks about federal legislation, but whatever...) Wagner is the establishment candidate, having gotten a lot of endorsements from the political hierarchy in Virginia. Signer is running the outsider/insurgent campaign. I'm voting for Wagner, although I think they'd both be good candidates in the general; however, I'm skeptical whether either can actually beat Bolling in November.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

GOP nominates a nutter for the 99th House of Delegates district:

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That being said, turnout will be abysmal regardless. Webb-Miller was about 150,000 voters. The 2005 Lt. Governor primary was around 115,000. At this point I'll be surprised if it ends up being 200,000.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

At this point I'll be surprised if it ends up being 200,000.

Really?  I'm expecting somewhere between 300,000-400,000.

Turnout that high would be a guaranteed McAuliffe victory. I would expect it to fall somewhere in between 150,000 and 250,000 (at the extreme high end).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP put out a new primary poll:

Terry McAuliffe - 29 (30)
Creigh Deeds - 20 (14)
Brian Moran - 20 (20)

And for Lt. Governor:

Jody Wagner - 21 (18)
Mike Signer - 11 (7)

It would appear that between this new round of polling and the WaPo endorsement, the momentum is Deeds', although it's not clear if it'll be enough to carry him to victory.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It is more likely that high turnout will mean that more of the voters who voted in the 2008 presidential primary will show up rather than more Republicans and Independents, a group which McAuliffe is doing well with.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

When is the primary. I forgot again.

June 9. I've added that information to the original post so nobody has to ask again.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Right now I'm thinking McAuliffe will win by 5-7 points, with Deeds and Moran a hair apart for second and third. But if people are moving to Deeds, well, it'll be down to the wire.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republican state convention is occurring right now. McDonnell is officially nominated Governor. Bill Bolling faces no threat of losing the Lt. Governor nomination to Patrick Muldoon. I'm hearing Ken Cuccinelli is going to win the Attorney General nomination by a landslide, which isn't surprising, considering how right-wing he is. Of course, these conventions often come with surprises. See, for example, Bob Marshall's near-upset over Gilmore last year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bolling and Cuccinelli nominated.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also, Pat Mullins, the interim RPV chair, was elected to a full term.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, I can't believe this race is going to be possibly decided on the 9th.

I know if the current frontrunner wins the primary, I'll start a Democratic movement to ignore this race until 2011 haha.

I encourage every Virginian here not to back Moran's Titanic, he'll be lucky enough if he gets second.  Even if Moran were to win, he's run one of the more god-awful,eratic, and confusing campaigns I've seen in a while, and this isn't only the third or fourth Trippi campaign I've seen implode.  Wikipedia says he's been behind a lot more.

Just vote for Creigh.  At least you can pronounce his name hilariously "Craaaay Deaaaaaades"

It's actually pronounced "Cree", not "Cray". No, I don't know why.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pre-primary fundraising reports (April 1 - May 27) are out.

Governor:

Creigh Deeds (D) - $1.2m starting balance, $676k raised, $1.4m spent, $522k cash on hand
Terry McAuliffe (D) - $2.4m starting balance, $1.8m raised, $3.0m spent, $1.2m cash on hand
Bob McDonnell (R) - $3.5m starting balance, $3.7m raised, $2.3m spent, $4.9m cash on hand
Brian Moran (D) - $823k starting balance, $844k raised, $960k spent, $707k cash on hand

Lt. Governor:

Bill Bolling (R) - $733k starting balance, $448k raised, $252k spent, $928k cash on hand
Mike Signer (D) - $176k starting balance, $141k raised, $134k spent, $183k cash on hand
Jody Wagner (D) - $412k starting balance, $317k raised, $487k spent, $242k cash on hand

Attorney General:

Ken Cuccinelli (R) - $160k starting balance, $116k raised, $142k spent, $134k cash on hand
Steve Shannon (D) - $924k starting balance, $227k raised, $141k spent, $1.0m cash on hand

McDonnell received $1.5 million from the RNC and $750k from the RGA. This is in addition to $2 million the RGA has already chipped in. Hooray for no campaign contribution limits!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Safe R.

With Moran: Likely R
With Deeds: Lean R
With McAuliffe: Likely R

I tend to think the main issue will be the size of the loss. That said McAuliffe is a strong campaigner and an excellent fundraiser. McDonnell is other than Gilmore probably the most Conservative figure the GOP has ever run for Governor, and we saw what happened to Gilmore last year.

It depends on what strain of conservatism you're looking for. Consider the last few nominees for governor. George Allen and Jerry Kilgore ran on social issues -- Allen promised to end parole (I'm assuming this was a big thing, anyway; he used it in virtually every radio ad of his I heard in 2006), and Kilgore ran on the death penalty (or something like that -- remember the "Kaine wouldn't sentence Hitler to death" ads?). Jim Gilmore and Earley ran on taxes -- Gilmore promised to end the car tax, and Mark Earley demanded that Warner sign a "no new tax" pledge, which Warner would not do.

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Yes, that's what I've been expecting for a while now. Also, the Republicans hold the House of Delegates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Latest NoVA/SUSA poll (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties):

Moran: 43%
McAuliffe: 27%
Deeds: 20%

2,000 adults from the 4 counties were interviewed 05/29/09 through 05/31/09. Of them, 1,743 were registered to vote. Of them, 570 told SurveyUSA they were likely to vote in next Tuesday's primary. In SurveyUSA's most recent statewide survey of Virginia, this region made up 28% of the state's likely voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=449f08ce-6258-4086-93e7-c34e580e5572

I hadn't noticed until now, but they left out Alexandria.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

ALL of the candidates running for governor support the death penalty.

I can't figure out Terry.

By that, I mean his depth.  He seems to have the best grasp of the issues.  But he also seems to have the best grasp about how to sell these issues to someone ignorant on the race.  Does that indicate that he's intelligent?  Could that intelligence translate into governance?  He's correcting the interviewer on dates and facts, he certainly seems to have a better memory of any candidate I've seen, or at least the one who's the most interested in flouting it...he's at least the most unquestionably fast-talking one I've seen.

I suspect not he'll have difficulties implementing his ideas.  One example, he has to work with the legislature, who will be far less be willing to buy his used cars.  He cites his ability to create jobs that other candidate cannot by convincing overseas companies to invest in Virgnia...through working the state legislature.

So it's not just me that thinks he sounds like a used car salesman.

Aside from that, my problem with him is that his response to everything is "we gotta create JOBS!" without any real indication of how.