Haley will never win a GOP primary unless she can somehow find a time machine.
Ds traded a lot of rural, small city, and exurban strength for higher propensity professional voters. These people will turn out for Harris. The R side of the trade (non-degree holding voters) are potent because they turn out en masse for someone like Trump but not for someone like Leah Vukmir. Haley is almost precisely the wrong type of fit for these voters.
The more interesting question is how much does turnout plummet for a boring race like this. Harris might crack 70 million votes.
Bolded is key. Granted, Harris certainly underperforms Biden to counterbalance, but Haley would have a tough climb.
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