2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[T'Chenka]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

[T'Chenka]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

PA way higher, GA higher, NC lower.

N Carolina - 15%
Georgia - 50%
Arizona - 75%
Nevada - 75%
Pennsylvania - 75%

?

[T'Chenka]

Thanks for the feedback everybody.

Based on the responses it looks like:

N CAROLINA = 5 to 15%
GEORGIA = 50 to 75%
NEVADA = 65 to 75%
ARIZONA = 70% to 95%
PENNSYLVANIA = 60% to 95%

25% spread on GA and AZ and a 35% spread on PA. Some of y'all are wrong and we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow (and hopefully a new President-Elect).

[T'Chenka]

From Jennifer Medina:

In the latest results, Trump hit the percentage he needed to stay on track to potentially keep Arizona, but it may not hold. The next Maricopa release is not expected until Thursday night.

Does anybody know if the other counties will be releasing earlier? If so, we'll know "Trump must win __ % of Maricopa to win Arizona" and we'll know based on the number whether it's realistic or not for him to win. What I'm really getting at here is: are we waiting until Thurs night to know who wins Arizona or can we deduce it with 90% certainty before that?

[T'Chenka]

God help us all... but the "Biden steals the election" conspiracy theories have begun to spread to Germany, apparently among AfD supporter circles. Just saw a German text that explained that Biden is able to "steal" Georgia because Brian Kemp is a "RINO governor" and then this guy went with "why did Angela Merkel donate to the Clinton Foundation... what we witness in the U.S. can happen here too" etc.

LMAO!

"RINO Brian Kemp steals elections for Democrats" is the funniest thing I've heard all month.

[T'Chenka]

I need reassurance.

The longer this stretches out the more it seems like Trump will win.

Are we going to win Georgia?
Are we going to win PA?

Georgia - 50/50 odds (cautious), maybe better?
Pennsylvania - probably yes, you'll have a better idea in 6 to 12 hours

by the way
Arizona - very likely, we'll know in the next 18 hours

[T'Chenka]

Arizona keeps slipping.  Nevada is too close.

Trump's ONLY chance to win Arizona now is to dominate the remaining Maricopa County votes. All other counties not at 100% yet favour Biden.

[T'Chenka]

A record number of Americans voted this time to stop the fraud , Donnie.

[T'Chenka]

LOL.   Democrats who think they will win this election.

Fun factoid of the day:  the more prolonged this election will be, the higher chances the GOP will win.

Democrats didn't learn their lesson from 2000?  

Biden's about to win Pennsylvania and Georgia, son.

[T'Chenka]

We only need Biden to expand his PA lead by maybe 10 or 20 thousand and the networks should call it. So OF COURSE the faucet of PA votec updates slows to a drip this afternoon. Ugh...

[T'Chenka]

Come ooooooonnnnn Pittsburgh.

[T'Chenka]

Are we still waiting on a vote dump from Pittsburgh?

Yes

[T'Chenka]

Allegheny will not drop new results until at least 6:30 pm EST - 3200 votes that were damaged + 3800 military/overseas voters. 

Somebody put it best last night... I think it was Nathan?

(paraphrasing)
"All right, I'm out of here for now. I've had enough of what is essentially c0ck and ball torture without the c0ck and balls."

[T'Chenka]

Can the media PLEASE call.the race before 8pm so Biden can give his victory speech? I'd REALLY like to go into the weekend with the election "over", Trump's tantrums and legal challenges notwithstanding.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1324865787023265797

Biden's PA lead increases by over 3000.

[T'Chenka]

Call it. You need to call it.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324872039543365632

It's okay, that only brings Biden to 264, so the media can continue to f___ with us.

[T'Chenka]

So is Biden gonna speak?

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/cirnoplusplus/status/1324767607317168129

live look at Georgia rn

LMAO, Canis has been making this joke on Lokcord all week.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/apnovoa/status/1324800460335755265

This is disturbing and I think the man needs help but I had to laugh.

KOMRADE BIDEN!

[T'Chenka]

It's okay folks, Philly will count another 3 thousand votes tomorrow.

[T'Chenka]

Can anybody confirm Philly was counting through the night? I thought I heard that or read that. There should be a big vote dump this morning then, right? One that might cause the big networks to call PA / the election?

[T'Chenka]

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but the networks are waiting on calling PA because it's theoretically possible that Trump can win 80% of the remaining ballots, most of which are coming from Allegheny and Philly? That's really where we're at now?

Yep.

AND, "ballot counting has resumed in Pennsylvania" according to CNN a minute ago, but we were told Philly was going to be counting through the night? There's also no talk that I've seen of when we might expect a vote dump from somewhere in Pennsylvania, or when Philly might announce the votes they were supposed to be counting through the night.

CNN and the other networks don't think we're getting tired of waiting, apparently.

[T'Chenka]

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but the networks are waiting on calling PA because it's theoretically possible that Trump can win 80% of the remaining ballots, most of which are coming from Allegheny and Philly? That's really where we're at now?

I think at least some of their logic is "if we call it now and it ends up going to recount while we didn't call Georgia because it's definitely going to recount, it'll look like a double standard. So let's wait until Biden's lead goes from 29K to 35K and then it'll be out of recount range and we won't have to care."

I really hope that's true, because that means we'd only need...
.
- 7500 more votes counted
(@ Biden winning 80%)

or

- 8572 more votes counted
(@ Biden winning 70%)

or

- 10,000 more votes counted
(@ Biden winning 60%)

[T'Chenka]

Some (how many?) PA votes coming "in a few minutes". (CNN)