Poll: Nelson holds big lead over Harris

[The Vorlon]

Here is a somewhat longer write up on the same poll...

Florida Senate: Nelson holds commanding lead over Harris

June 21, 2005

John Kennedy | Tallahassee Bureau Posted June 21, 2005

TALLAHASSEE -- Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds a commanding lead in his 2006 re-election bid over Republican U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, whose candidacy already is sharply dividing Florida voters, according to a statewide poll released Monday.

In a snapshot taken 17 months before the election, Nelson is favored 53 percent to 36 percent over Harris, with 11 percent of voters undecided. The poll also found that Harris remains a polarizing figure to many of the state's voters.

"This is one of those rare cases where, going in, the challenger has higher negative ratings than the incumbent," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the poll for the Orlando Sentinel and WESH 2 News. "At this point, when you look at these numbers, I don't know how she's going to win this race."

Harris, who achieved national notoriety for her pivotal role as secretary of state during Florida's disputed 2000 presidential recount, announced two weeks ago that she was planning to challenge Nelson.

But the move drew a lukewarm reception from Republican leaders, who fear she could lose to Nelson, whom they have targeted for defeat. The poll underscores this rising unease, which already has led the White House, Gov. Jeb Bush and other leading Republicans to court House Speaker Allan Bense, R-Panama City, as a potential GOP primary rival.

Even so, Harris supporters disputed the poll results.

"Everyone is saying Nelson is vulnerable," said Adam Goodman, campaign consultant for Harris, a two-term U.S. House member from Sarasota. "But every poll and analysis we've seen shows [Harris] with a tremendous showing in the primary that would turn into a 50-50 showdown with Nelson in the general election."

The Sentinel-WESH poll found that Nelson, who is seeking his second term in the U.S. Senate, is viewed favorably by 44 percent of voters, while only 10 percent hold a negative view.

By contrast, voters are split on Harris. Thirty percent have a negative view of her, while 32 percent view her favorably, according to the survey.

"It's clear that this race will ultimately be a referendum on Katherine Harris," said John "Mac" Stipanovich, a Tallahassee lobbyist who advised Harris during the disputed recount in which George W. Bush carried Florida by 537 votes over Democrat Al Gore.

The telephone survey of 625 registered voters was conducted last Tuesday through Thursday, before news of Bense's possible entry in the race became public. Bense would not comment on the poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The poll found that Nelson has powerful support within Democratic ranks, outdistancing Harris by 86 percent to 8 percent among registered Democrats. He also garners 54 percent of independent voters, the most rapidly growing base of Florida voters, compared with Harris' 27 percent.

Nelson also leads Harris across all regions of the state. Harris comes closest in her home Gulf Coast area, where she trails the Democrat by 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Harris leads among Republicans 64 percent to 17 percent, supporting the widely held view that while she may lose in November 2006 she would still prove difficult to beat in the GOP primary.

"You should never underestimate Harris in the primary," said Matthew Corrigan, a political scientist at the University of North Florida. "In a low-turnout primary election, her name recognition and fund-raising ability will be formidable."

When Harris declared her candidacy earlier this month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee issued a statement that did not mention her candidacy but suggested she probably would not prove to be the only Republican seeking to challenge Nelson.

Since then, Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, the committee chairman, has urged Bense to enter the race. When told results of the Sentinel-WESH poll, committee spokesman Brian Nick said it showed Nelson was capable of being defeated -- especially since his favorability rating remained below 50 percent.

"It shows that with the right candidate, he is definitely beatable," Nick said.

He would not, however, discuss Harris' poll numbers.

"I think there's a lot of interest in the race," Nick said. "That's definitely going to continue, and from our point of view, the good news is that Nelson is vulnerable."

Republicans control 55 U.S. Senate seats and Democrats 44, with Vermont independent James Jeffords holding the final spot. In next year's midterm elections, Republicans are looking to defend 15 seats and Democrats 17, while Vermont voters will choose a successor to the retiring Jeffords.

Nelson's seat is among five held by Democrats seeking re-election in states dominated by Republicans. A Nelson-Harris matchup is already seen as likely becoming one of key races of the 2006 election.

In his five years in the Senate, after a lengthy career in the state Cabinet and in Congress, Nelson has worked to broaden his appeal in a state turned heavily Republican.

Nelson, for example, has gained attention in recent weeks, joining with Republican Sen. Mel Martinez to fight attempts to weaken the federal moratorium on oil- and gas-drilling off Florida's coast.

"I think the poll reflects the sentiment in Florida that Bill Nelson is a common-sense senator who is doing a pretty good job for Florida," said Dan McLaughlin, a Nelson spokesman. "The race will be tough. But we're ready for whoever the nominee is."