Poll: Nelson holds big lead over Harris

[Sarnstrom]

I thought this was interesting a new Mason-Dixon polls shows that statewide, 53% of voters currently support Nelson, while 36% back Harris and 11% are undecided. Perhaps this race won't be that close.

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/wptv/article/0,2547,TCP_1213_3868921,00.html

[Moooooo]

Shhhh.... She's underrated remember?

[AuH2O]

She hasn't actually done any campaigning. This poll looks fishy to me based on some of the other question results (64-17 among Republicans? uhhh no), M-D or not.

If Harris really was so unpopular, lots of people would want to challenge her in the primary, and she would lose. Maybe that's what will happen. It's early.

[TheresNoMoney]

I expect her to get a primary challenge.

[Moooooo]

Her General Election numbers should encourage a slew of other Republicans to jump in.  But her primary numbers scare them away.

[AuH2O]

Apparently, Rove wants State Speaker Allan Bense to join the fray and personally has met with him.

Bense certainly looks the part and has good, albeit somewhat brief, legislative experience. He also has zero name recognition and would need lots and lots of money.

Harris is not the best option for the GOP but she also isn't so bad as people have made her out. This M-D poll has Nelson more highly rated personally than other polls have, which might explain why he comes out strong head-to-head.

[Ben.]

I thought this was interesting a new Mason-Dixon polls shows that statewide, 53% of voters currently support Nelson, while 36% back Harris and 11% are undecided. Perhaps this race won't be that close.

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/wptv/article/0,2547,TCP_1213_3868921,00.html

Excellent Mason-Dixon an ace pollsters, who are based in Florida to boot! this is very good news for Nelson, but if the GOP puts up a stronger candidate things could still get pretty tight for Bill.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things could change, but Mason-Dixon is apparently the only pollster that knows how to poll Florida well consistantly...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think it's safe to say that this at least confirms the seat is AT LEAST lean Nelson, not lean Harris as Goldie claimed.

[AuH2O]

oops, BRTD lies again.

please find where I said it leaned Harris or admit to again telling a blatant lie.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Harris. She's highly underrated.

So far the Senate picture is murky but I see a lot of misreads, here and in the media.

The thread is asking which is more likely, so you're saying a Harris victory is more likely.

[Sam Spade]

Ah, finally a poll from Florida that I trust.

Fact is, a 64-17 lead among Republicans means that she has clearly not even solidified her base.  Obviously, with a year and a half out, this is not too big of a problem, but still is one.

The bigger problem is that she doesn't lead in Central or Northern Florida, where she has to lead big to win.

Unless these changes happen with her as a candidate, she will lose 55-45% roughly, as she solidifies her base, but has nowhere to go after that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can we not turn this into yet another Goldie v The Rest of The World flame war please?

Thanks

[AuH2O]

Harris. She's highly underrated.

So far the Senate picture is murky but I see a lot of misreads, here and in the media.

The thread is asking which is more likely, so you're saying a Harris victory is more likely.

Just because I made that prediction doesn't mean the race "leans" that way. In fact, if memory serves I made that very clear-- making you more dishonest for taking me out of context (which is the only way someone mentally inferior like BRTD has any chance in an argument).

[Machiavelli]

GRAH YOU ARE NO MATCH FOR MY SUPREME INTELLECT

[Smash255]

Great News

[The Vorlon]

Here is a somewhat longer write up on the same poll...

Florida Senate: Nelson holds commanding lead over Harris

June 21, 2005

John Kennedy | Tallahassee Bureau Posted June 21, 2005

TALLAHASSEE -- Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds a commanding lead in his 2006 re-election bid over Republican U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, whose candidacy already is sharply dividing Florida voters, according to a statewide poll released Monday.

In a snapshot taken 17 months before the election, Nelson is favored 53 percent to 36 percent over Harris, with 11 percent of voters undecided. The poll also found that Harris remains a polarizing figure to many of the state's voters.

"This is one of those rare cases where, going in, the challenger has higher negative ratings than the incumbent," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the poll for the Orlando Sentinel and WESH 2 News. "At this point, when you look at these numbers, I don't know how she's going to win this race."

Harris, who achieved national notoriety for her pivotal role as secretary of state during Florida's disputed 2000 presidential recount, announced two weeks ago that she was planning to challenge Nelson.

But the move drew a lukewarm reception from Republican leaders, who fear she could lose to Nelson, whom they have targeted for defeat. The poll underscores this rising unease, which already has led the White House, Gov. Jeb Bush and other leading Republicans to court House Speaker Allan Bense, R-Panama City, as a potential GOP primary rival.

Even so, Harris supporters disputed the poll results.

"Everyone is saying Nelson is vulnerable," said Adam Goodman, campaign consultant for Harris, a two-term U.S. House member from Sarasota. "But every poll and analysis we've seen shows [Harris] with a tremendous showing in the primary that would turn into a 50-50 showdown with Nelson in the general election."

The Sentinel-WESH poll found that Nelson, who is seeking his second term in the U.S. Senate, is viewed favorably by 44 percent of voters, while only 10 percent hold a negative view.

By contrast, voters are split on Harris. Thirty percent have a negative view of her, while 32 percent view her favorably, according to the survey.

"It's clear that this race will ultimately be a referendum on Katherine Harris," said John "Mac" Stipanovich, a Tallahassee lobbyist who advised Harris during the disputed recount in which George W. Bush carried Florida by 537 votes over Democrat Al Gore.

The telephone survey of 625 registered voters was conducted last Tuesday through Thursday, before news of Bense's possible entry in the race became public. Bense would not comment on the poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The poll found that Nelson has powerful support within Democratic ranks, outdistancing Harris by 86 percent to 8 percent among registered Democrats. He also garners 54 percent of independent voters, the most rapidly growing base of Florida voters, compared with Harris' 27 percent.

Nelson also leads Harris across all regions of the state. Harris comes closest in her home Gulf Coast area, where she trails the Democrat by 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Harris leads among Republicans 64 percent to 17 percent, supporting the widely held view that while she may lose in November 2006 she would still prove difficult to beat in the GOP primary.

"You should never underestimate Harris in the primary," said Matthew Corrigan, a political scientist at the University of North Florida. "In a low-turnout primary election, her name recognition and fund-raising ability will be formidable."

When Harris declared her candidacy earlier this month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee issued a statement that did not mention her candidacy but suggested she probably would not prove to be the only Republican seeking to challenge Nelson.

Since then, Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, the committee chairman, has urged Bense to enter the race. When told results of the Sentinel-WESH poll, committee spokesman Brian Nick said it showed Nelson was capable of being defeated -- especially since his favorability rating remained below 50 percent.

"It shows that with the right candidate, he is definitely beatable," Nick said.

He would not, however, discuss Harris' poll numbers.

"I think there's a lot of interest in the race," Nick said. "That's definitely going to continue, and from our point of view, the good news is that Nelson is vulnerable."

Republicans control 55 U.S. Senate seats and Democrats 44, with Vermont independent James Jeffords holding the final spot. In next year's midterm elections, Republicans are looking to defend 15 seats and Democrats 17, while Vermont voters will choose a successor to the retiring Jeffords.

Nelson's seat is among five held by Democrats seeking re-election in states dominated by Republicans. A Nelson-Harris matchup is already seen as likely becoming one of key races of the 2006 election.

In his five years in the Senate, after a lengthy career in the state Cabinet and in Congress, Nelson has worked to broaden his appeal in a state turned heavily Republican.

Nelson, for example, has gained attention in recent weeks, joining with Republican Sen. Mel Martinez to fight attempts to weaken the federal moratorium on oil- and gas-drilling off Florida's coast.

"I think the poll reflects the sentiment in Florida that Bill Nelson is a common-sense senator who is doing a pretty good job for Florida," said Dan McLaughlin, a Nelson spokesman. "The race will be tough. But we're ready for whoever the nominee is."

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Does he destroy the other candidates?

[Alcon]

AuH2O, even if Nelson hasn't done much campaigning, 11% undecided indicates she is a pretty known and evidently polarizing figure.  Nelson being above 50%, if this poll is accurate (and it's Mason-Dixon), is not good news for Harris.

Obviously it is too early to tell, but these are not promising numbers.

[Ebowed]

GRAH YOU ARE NO MATCH FOR MY SUPREME INTELLECT

hahaha

[2952-0-0]

Well, Goldie did keep telling us that Vermont was sure to go for Bush. DAMN THOSE LIBERAL HIPPIES UP THERE!! RIGGING THE ELECTION TO SOMETHING LIKE 60-39 TO KERRY!!

[Sam Spade]

According to Dave Wissing here, the Gubernatorial numbers (not listed in yesterday's article) were as follows:

2006 FLORIDA GOVERNOR - GENERAL
Crist-R 41%
Davis-D 28%

Gallahgher-R 38%
Davis-D 29%

2006 FLORIDA GOVERNOR - PRIMARIES
Crist 41%
Gallagher 23%
Jennings 7%

Davis 23%
Maddox 12%
Smith 4%

[electcollfan]

Gallagher ought to leave the gubernatorial race to Crist and go for the senate seat. I'd think he'd be a much better candidate than Harris.

[Sam Spade]

Gallagher ought to leave the gubernatorial race to Crist and go for the senate seat. I'd think he'd be a much better candidate than Harris.

If I was a Republican, I would agree.