HOT! - SUSA does 50 States - 100 Senatorial Approval POlls

[The Vorlon]

The Good folks at Survey USA did Senatorial approval rating polls for all 100 senators!

100 senate ratings

As a very, very rough rule of thumb, any Senator under +/- 50% should be considered vulnerable - does not mean they will lose, but a solid candidate has a decent shot of beating them.

Any Senator under 55% is a "might be vulnerable" - you really have to look at the state to get a better idea.

Again, this is one poll (actually two, they did two polls one month apart) so differences of a few points are not all that meaningfull on way or another, but still it is quite an interesting set of data!

I find it interesting the all 100% have a higher approval than disapproval number.

Here, ranked by net rating (Approval - disapproval) are all 100 SEnators..

1   IL   Obama, Barack   72%   21%   51%
2   HI   Inouye, Daniel   70%   19%   51%
3   ND   Conrad, Kent   71%   22%   49%
4   VT   Leahy, Patrick   71%   22%   49%
5   ME   Collins, Susan   71%   23%   48%
6   WV   Rockefeller, Jay   70%   22%   48%
7   ME   Snowe, Olympia   71%   24%   47%
8   ND   Dorgan, Byron   70%   24%   46%
9   RI   Reed, Jack   69%   23%   46%
10   IN   Bayh, Evan   67%   22%   45%
11   SD   Johnson, Tim   67%   25%   42%
12   AK   Stevens, Ted   66%   24%   42%
13   AZ   McCain, John   67%   26%   41%
14   DE   Carper, Thomas   63%   23%   40%
15   VT   Jeffords, James   66%   27%   39%
16   DE   Biden, Joseph   65%   27%   38%
17   TX   Hutchison, Kay   64%   26%   38%
18   NE   Nelson, Ben   64%   26%   38%
19   HI   Akaka, Daniel   62%   24%   38%
20   OR   Wyden, Ron   62%   24%   38%
21   CT   Lieberman, Joseph   65%   28%   37%
22   MS   Cochran, Thad   63%   26%   37%
23   MS   Lott, Trent   65%   29%   36%
24   NY   Clinton, Hillary   65%   30%   35%
25   IN   Lugar, Richard   61%   26%   35%
26   IA   Grassley, Chuck   61%   27%   34%
27   NY   Schumer, Charles   61%   28%   33%
28   ID   Crapo, Michael   59%   26%   33%
29   NM   Bingaman, Jeff   60%   28%   32%
30   UT   Bennett, Robert   59%   27%   32%
31   WV   Byrd, Robert   63%   32%   31%
32   ID   Craig, Larry   58%   28%   30%
33   WI   Feingold, Russell   62%   33%   29%
34   NM   Domenici, Pete   61%   32%   29%
35   UT   Hatch, Orrin   61%   32%   29%
36   MD   Mikulski, Barbara   60%   31%   29%
37   WY   Thomas, Craig   59%   30%   29%
38   WI   Kohl, Herb   59%   31%   28%
39   CT   Dodd, Christopher   58%   30%   28%
40   AL   Shelby, Richard   58%   30%   28%
41   MA   Kennedy, Edward   61%   34%   27%
42   NE   Hagel, Chuck   58%   31%   27%
43   AR   Pryor, Mark   58%   31%   27%
44   AL   Sessions, Jeff   57%   31%   26%
45   WY   Enzi, Michael   56%   30%   26%
46   AR   Lincoln, Blanche   58%   33%   25%
47   WA   Cantwell, Maria   55%   30%   25%
48   KS   Roberts, Pat   54%   29%   25%
49   LA   Vitter, David   57%   33%   24%
50   KY   McConnell, Mitch   56%   32%   24%
51   MT   Baucus, Max   58%   35%   23%
52   WA   Murray, Patty   56%   33%   23%
53   NC   Dole, Elizabeth   55%   32%   23%
54   NH   Gregg, Judd   53%   30%   23%
55   CO   Salazar, Ken   55%   33%   22%
56   NV   Reid, Harry   57%   36%   21%
57   VA   Allen, George   53%   32%   21%
58   VA   Warner, John   53%   32%   21%
59   MD   Sarbanes, Paul   52%   31%   21%
60   GA   Isakson, Johnny   51%   30%   21%
61   IA   Harkin, Tom   54%   35%   19%
62   SC   Graham, Lindsey   53%   34%   19%
63   CA   Feinstein, Dianne   52%   33%   19%
64   PA   Specter, Arlen   54%   36%   18%
65   TN   Alexander, Lamar   52%   34%   18%
66   MI   Levin, Carl   52%   34%   18%
67   OR   Smith, Gordon   51%   33%   18%
68   AZ   Kyl, Jon   49%   31%   18%
69   FL   Nelson, Bill   47%   29%   18%
70   MO   Bond, Kit   52%   35%   17%
71   NJ   Corzine, Jon   52%   36%   16%
72   GA   Chambliss, Saxby   50%   34%   16%
73   IL   Durbin, Richard   50%   34%   16%
74   LA   Landrieu, Mary   54%   39%   15%
75   NV   Ensign, John   49%   34%   15%
76   RI   Chafee, Lincoln   53%   39%   14%
77   CA   Boxer, Barbara   51%   37%   14%
78   CO   Allard, Wayne   49%   35%   14%
79   SC   DeMint, Jim   49%   35%   14%
80   MN   Coleman, Norm   52%   39%   13%
81   TN   Frist, Bill   51%   39%   12%
82   KS   Brownback, Sam   50%   38%   12%
83   MI   Stabenow, Debbie   48%   36%   12%
84   MA   Kerry, John   53%   42%   11%
85   OH   Voinovich, George   50%   39%   11%
86   SD   Thune, John   52%   42%   10%
87   MO   Talent, Jim   48%   38%   10%
88   NH   Sununu, John   47%   37%   10%
89   KY   Bunning, Jim   47%   38%   9%
90   MT   Burns, Conrad   50%   42%   8%
91   AK   Murkowski, Lisa   49%   42%   7%
92   NC   Burr, Richard   42%   36%   6%
93   MN   Dayton, Mark   46%   41%   5%
94   FL   Martinez, Mel   43%   39%   4%
95   TX   Cornyn, John   40%   36%   4%
96   OK   Coburn, Tom   43%   40%   3%
97   OK   Inhofe, James   44%   42%   2%
98   NJ   Lautenberg, Frank   42%   40%   2%
99   PA   Santorum, Rick   45%   44%   1%
100   OH   DeWine, Mike   44%   43%   1%

[The Vorlon]

Thank, Vorlon.  Is this a poll of Registered voters, or just adults.

Couple quickie technical notes:

Sample sizes were about 600 or so based on the quoted +/- 4.0% MOE.

This was a sample of ADULTS as aopposed to registered or likely votes.

Typically, a Democrat will do 2 or 3% better in a ADULTS poll versus likely voters, while a GOP candidate will go a tad worse.

SUSA, while a very decent firm, historically has a mild "pull to the left" usually 3ish % or so.

Polls of Adults will also bounce around a fair bit more than polls of registered or likely votes.  The 45% who don't vote are (obviously) less firm in the political opinions and will hence bouncve up or down with the news of the day far more than registered or likely voters.

[The Vorlon]

Thank, Vorlon.  Is this a poll of Registered voters, or just adults.

SUSA, while a very decent firm, historically has a mild "pull to the left" usually 3ish % or so.

The left-leaning site, FreeRepublic says that they're the best.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1299611/posts

"A very decent firm" is hardly a slam by any means, in case the term was misunderstood.

In 2000, if you take the projected margin in SUSA presidential polls, they did indeed have a "mild pull to the left" of about 3%, and in 2004 it was basically the same.  

SUSA maginally underpolls Republicans, it's a statistical fact. - Doesn't make them a bad firm, indeed they are a "very decent firm" - they just have a mild pull to the Dem side. Research2000 is pretty similar - good firm, but a bit of a leftward pull historically.

[The Vorlon]

I must respectfully disagree.

While SUSAs methodology (primarily sampling) does indeed have a slight left bias, it is a transparent methodology.

Research 2000 however has a more distinct left bias, which varies erraticatlly from mild to severe which is not a simple matter of sampling.

Ya, but Del Ali over at Research2000 always tampers with his results in really obvious ways so you can tell what the poll reallys says if you look carefully..

[The Vorlon]

I still need to see what the mighty Zogby Interactive says before I can make an accurate prediction on any race.

All Hail the Mighty Zogby....



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