How much trouble is the Democratic Party In...?

[The Vorlon]

Vote and eleaborate

[The Vorlon]

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Quoting from the Bill of Rights.  This is good.

[The Vorlon]

In Louisiana 03

Tauzin (R) got 32% vs Melancon (d) who got 24%

Total of all GOP candidates was 59%, so this seat looks string for the GOP

In Lousiania 07

Boustany (R) got 39% vs Mount (D) who got 25%

However total Dem vote was 51% vs 49% GOP - Flip a coin on this one, though with lower runoff turnout the Dem may have a tiny edge, though Vitter getting 51% for the GOP in the senate race is a very positive GOP sign.

Runoffs in Louisiana are, to put it mildly, hard to predict.  The state polls badly, and turnout is like a yo-you so you don't even really know what your even trying to sample...

[The Vorlon]

Here is a link to what will be constantly updated Louisiania House Runnoff results.

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=120404

I'll go out on a limb and say the GOP takes both seats tonight.

03 by a good bit, 07 in a squeeker.

[The Vorlon]

Here is a link to what will be constantly updated Louisiania House Runnoff results.

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=120404

I'll go out on a limb and say the GOP takes both seats tonight.

03 by a good bit, 07 in a squeeker.

Logically you're spot on methinks... but as these are the two Cajun districts...

The "conventional wisdom" is wrong more than it is right in Louisiania.

03 should go to the GOP, 07 is really hard to call.

Both 03 and 07 got really sunstantially redistricted in 2000 and in 2002 both had what were essentially uncontested House races so we really have no voting "baseline" in the new Boundries.

Making things more complicated is the fact that both "primaries" held on Nov 2nd were very very bitter with both the GOP and Dems having TWO strong contenders in each seat, so their is a lot of fratracidial "bad blood" within both parties.

Who knows in LA 07... flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance which is about as good as any other anaylsis you are likely to see.