MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[S019]

Maybe this is a sign we shouldn’t be taking polling in red states like MT or OH seriously this early either. Hogan obviously isn’t going to win, and Senate polling is generally useless until around Labor Day.

[S019]

Maybe this is a sign we shouldn’t be taking polling in red states like MT or OH seriously this early either. Hogan obviously isn’t going to win, and Senate polling is generally useless until around Labor Day.

Hogan has an astonishing 63 % favorable Rating.

I remember a certain guy named Mark Warner who left the Governors Office in Richmond in 2005 with a 74 % JA Rating and then carried that over to win the Senate Race in 2008.

This is not too dissimilar. Would be nice to have some "Sanity" back in the Senate.

Well I mean to overcome such a hefty margin in a federal race is still a steep climb especially since all these races will be framed as Schumer vs Thune.

[S019]

Very Likely D is fair I think. There is a universe where Hogan wins this but it would require a laughably bad Democratic campaign at a minimum, that did happen in 2014, but that year was also 2014. I think the problem for Hogan is he is going to face a Democratic ad blitz if this still is polling like this over the summer and it will be very hard, in fact near impossible, in my opinion, to win once this race becomes nationalized.