VA-SEN 2024 megathread

[S019]

This is pretty close to Safe D without Youngkin, and I think he’d struggle to win too and Kaine has a history of winning tough races.

[S019]

I don't think the standard here should be whether or not Cao can win, and I agree he isn't going to get a 15 point over performance in Northern Virginia again, he could however do well enough to create an environment that is less toxic for downballot Republicans, which is important because Donald Trump is made in a lab to be toxic to Virginia voters, and anything that takes attention away from him is a win for Virginia Republicans.

[S019]

Garcia, new to Republican campaigns, launched his bid in January to unseat incumbent U.S. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine. He knew he wouldn’t be successful in defeating Kaine in a swing state unless he shrugged off the Republican primary playbook. Instead, he comes with a pro-unity, pro-working-class message that he hopes will draw moderate Democrats and Republicans to support him in the primary and eventually topple the political giant Kaine has become in Virginia.

It's a strategy that comes as several Republican presidential candidates who have tried to tout unity have exited the race for the White House. Former Vice President Mike Pence sold kindness on the campaign trail after breaking with former President Donald Trump, but he ended his campaign in October. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who has previously called himself a biblical leader, ended his presidential bid last month.

https://www.progress-index.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/28/eddie-garcia-tim-kaine-nice-guy-republican-2024/71964087007/

VA GOP is easily the smartest blue state GOP. FTR, I don’t think this race is on the table even in a neutral year, but Cao/Garcia at least make it worth keeping an eye on in case Biden loses badly and down-ballot Ds don’t overperform him across the board like many expect.

It is actually incredible how much they've completely turned the page around from the mid 2010s when they were nominating people like Ken Cucinelli and Corey Stewart for statewide office. Anyways, it is definitely not out of reach for the GOP, but the fear of Trump probably weighs more heavily in Virginia than other reach states.