OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[S019]

Favorability numbers are a useless data point these days.

[S019]

Favorability numbers are a useless data point these days.

Not necessarily - they're good for seeing if attacks are working on particular candidates or not. Vance may full well win simply because he's a Rep. But the story this entire cycle - from the summer to now - has been his unpopularity with voters.

People can and do vote for candidates that they don’t like (especially if they dislike both, which is where a lot of Ohio voters will find themselves (and in such a case, they tend to stick to their party)). I was looking back at the 2018 polls and Cordray was consistently hitting 48%, it’s quite clear that yet again lots of voters who disapprove of an Ohio Republican (hmmm where have we seen this before) will vote for one.

[S019]

It’s entirely reasonable for Democrats to not want to be burned by Ohio for a third straight cycle, I don’t understand what is so unreasonable about it. Ohio polling is also so bad that until it actually gets it right, I won’t take it seriously (and no this isn’t the same as “all polling is trash.”) Those who think this race is Likely/Safe R (like myself) are having flashbacks to Ohio polls in October showing Biden up and don’t believe that pollsters have figured out how to poll Ohio, until they do, we have every right not to take then at face value.