NV-GOV 2022: Sisolak vs. Lombardo

[S019]

It is odd how so many people want to run for this seat, but like no one wants to run against Masto. Anyways Heller would be a very could get and could very well beat Sisolak. Additionally, it's unclear if the "Senator Spineless" attacks that bogged him down in 2018 will be relevant in 2022, which will have been more than 5 years after the GOP ACA repeal debacle. Tossup for now.

[S019]

This is a tossup now honestly, with Heller in. Also can someone change the thread title?

[S019]

Heller is in, here’s his announcement video:

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1439739654773694468?s=21

I still can't believe he ends the ad with "That's a Governor," what a bizarre political slogan.

[S019]

Isn't Nevada a mostly pro-choice state?

Well Nevada is really a base turnout state, Republicans have a solid floor of ~46 or 47 percent with just their base votes. Recent Republican wins in Nevada has also generally been low turnout affairs, if Heller is to make inroads it'd be in more working class parts of Clark County, not places like Las Vegas or Reno. The Democratic base tends to be larger in Nevada, which is why they usually win the state, though we can't really count anything out, Heller did win his 2012 race with 46% of the vote and there is clearly some Democratic base apathy towards Sisolak. To make a long story short, he is better off turning out the base than chasing moderate voters. Also don't forget that he has to win a contested primary, where the North Las Vegas Mayor and some Sheriff are already running.

[S019]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

Ralston: Republicans win Governor, LG and Comptroller while Dems win all the other statewide offices.

That is some serious editorializing.

Anyway, I think Lombardo wins comfortably, Laxalt in a squeaker, Titus loses, Lee loses in a squeaker, and Horsford wins comfortably.

Well, you were partly right.

Could anyone have predicted a R+4 national popular vote and also this set of outcomes? My NPV prediction was bang on, but everything else...

There is tons of vote to come from California, that NPV margin is going to narrow.