When will New Jersey vote Republican again?

[S019]

2036, at the earliest, 2032 is too soon, in my opinion, a GOP that abandons the divisive culture war issues and focus on fiscal conservatism/low taxes would have a good chance in the affluent suburbs in North Jersey, but I'm unsure if the more diverse cities would outvote them, if that's the case, then it would take even longer, as the GOP would need some way to make inroads with minorities, which I don't see happening. Republicans are much likelier to win DE, CT, or RI long term than New Jersey.

[S019]

Any Republican that could conceivably win New Jersey would never win the Republican primary.

Agreed, but I'd add the caveat "under the current coalition," eventually the GOP will need to try to appeal to college whites and/or minorities, and then, they might be able to flip NJ, but this is at least 15 years away.

[S019]

Any Republican that could conceivably win New Jersey would never win the Republican primary.

Someone like Jay Webber could. If he became a congressman and had a national profile being a Freedom Caucus suburban man; he'd do well in Iowa, South Carolina with the evangelicals, New Hampshire with the tax cutters, California and NY and NJ with the suburban Republican type voters.

Webber would coalesce the remaining wings of the Republican Party lane, he'd appeal to the Trumpists with the immigration cred.

I live in NJ-11, the margin by which Webber lost was surprising and not the least because he was successfully painted by Democrats as a right-wing extremist. He has no future in federal politics, and being Freedom Caucus up here is not the way to go. Had Scott Garrett not been tossed in 2016, he very well could have lost by Comstock margins in 2018, he was always out of place which is why he fell before Lance or the others. Morris County is trending D and much of the rest of NJ-11 is the rich suburbs in western Essex County (stretching from Livingston to just west of the Oranges) and Sherrill is from there (she's from Montclair), so you can expect a sizable overperformance there. No one is beating Sherrill this year and Jay Webber won't have any luck in a rematch.