When will New Jersey vote Republican again?

[Suburbia]

2028? 2032?

Never?

New Jersey is a notoriously anti-tax blue state, and Bush 41 was the last Republican to carry it.

[CookieDamage]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

[Suburbia]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

[Roll Roons]

Probably not before 2028.

[RINO Tom]

NJ is anti-tax?  Do they know that?

[Suburbia]

NJ is anti-tax?  Do they know that?

We always complain about property taxes here. We have 565 municipalities but no one wants to merge or consolidate schools/fire/police because people here don't want to go to school with low income minorities.

[Tekken_Guy]

When the GOP ditches the social conservatism and “white male rage” politics.

[darklordoftech]

When the GOP makes inroads with hispanics.

[Devils30]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

I'm not sure DeSantis is a good fit for any state after his performance the past month.

[Ferguson97]

2050s at the earliest, if young people keep moving away

[MATTROSE94]

Probably not until 2032 or 2036 at the earliest.

[S019]

2036, at the earliest, 2032 is too soon, in my opinion, a GOP that abandons the divisive culture war issues and focus on fiscal conservatism/low taxes would have a good chance in the affluent suburbs in North Jersey, but I'm unsure if the more diverse cities would outvote them, if that's the case, then it would take even longer, as the GOP would need some way to make inroads with minorities, which I don't see happening. Republicans are much likelier to win DE, CT, or RI long term than New Jersey.

[Del Tachi]

Swings/trends Trump again in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Christie was the only R that could win in Jersey

[slothdem]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

[Roll Roons]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

Haley and DeSantis aren’t exactly hardcore social conservatives in the same way as someone like Pence. On social issues, they strike me as similar to Chris Christie, who did, of course, get elected and re-elected as governor. As far as Republicans go, their best chance would be with Hogan, but Haley isn’t a terrible fit either and could keep it to single digits in 2024 or 2028 depending on what happens between now and then.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

You really think Republicans have a shot of winning the densest state in the country which also has extremely high college education rates? There are very few states with worse fundamentals for the GOP  than NJ. Therefore, the answer is well after the fundamental demographic makeup and ideology of the two parties change, and maybe not even then.

[slothdem]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

Haley and DeSantis aren’t exactly hardcore social conservatives in the same way as someone like Pence. On social issues, they strike me as similar to Chris Christie, who did, of course, get elected and re-elected as governor. As far as Republicans go, their best chance would be with Hogan, but Haley isn’t a terrible fit either and could keep it to single digits in 2024 or 2028 depending on what happens between now and then.

Don't let the Virginia avi fool ya. I was born and raised in the garden state (NJ-07), and I keep close tabs on the political happenings through my friends from home, nearly all of which are involved in their county democratic parties. I know the state well.

Leaving DeSantis aside, since his career is unlikely to recover, Haley absolutely is a terrible fit. Her hardcore fiscal conservatism won't fly anywhere outside of the skylands and the shore. She blocked medicaid expansion in her state while she was governor! As for her social conservatism, she is very anti-choice, and not being a Mike Pence-level zealot isn't enough to make her palatable to the suburban swing voters necessary to keep NJ close. She is substantially more socially conservative than Hugin, who was unable hold Bob Menedez(!) under a double-digit win.

If you want to argue that she's a better fit for the state than someone like Ted Cruz, sure. But there is no national Republican other than Kasich who could keep New Jersey close during a Presidential election, and no Republican on the planet who could carry it under the current coalitions.

[Roll Roons]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

Haley and DeSantis aren’t exactly hardcore social conservatives in the same way as someone like Pence. On social issues, they strike me as similar to Chris Christie, who did, of course, get elected and re-elected as governor. As far as Republicans go, their best chance would be with Hogan, but Haley isn’t a terrible fit either and could keep it to single digits in 2024 or 2028 depending on what happens between now and then.

Don't let the Virginia avi fool ya. I was born and raised in the garden state (NJ-07), and I keep close tabs on the political happenings through my friends from home, nearly all of which are involved in their county democratic parties. I know the state well.

Leaving DeSantis aside, since his career is unlikely to recover, Haley absolutely is a terrible fit. Her hardcore fiscal conservatism won't fly anywhere outside of the skylands and the shore. She blocked medicaid expansion in her state while she was governor! As for her social conservatism, she is very anti-choice, and not being a Mike Pence-level zealot isn't enough to make her palatable to the suburban swing voters necessary to keep NJ close. She is substantially more socially conservative than Hugin, who was unable hold Bob Menedez(!) under a double-digit win.

If you want to argue that she's a better fit for the state than someone like Ted Cruz, sure. But there is no national Republican other than Kasich who could keep New Jersey close during a Presidential election, and no Republican on the planet who could carry it under the current coalitions.

I'm originally from NJ-07 as well! I think if Larry Hogan managed to get the GOP nomination, he would likely do pretty well in the state. And Haley, in addition to being less obnoxious about her conservatism than someone like Pence or Cruz, is still probably a better fit for the state than Trump given that she is far less toxic to moderate suburban women. Especially if she runs against a weak candidate like Hillary or Bernie.

And to be fair, Hugin did run in a blue wave year. Steve Lonegan, an ardent Tea Partier who brought in Rick Perry and Sarah Palin to campaign with him, lost by the same amount in the 2013 special despite being a much worse candidate and running against a stronger opponent in Booker.

[slothdem]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

Haley and DeSantis aren’t exactly hardcore social conservatives in the same way as someone like Pence. On social issues, they strike me as similar to Chris Christie, who did, of course, get elected and re-elected as governor. As far as Republicans go, their best chance would be with Hogan, but Haley isn’t a terrible fit either and could keep it to single digits in 2024 or 2028 depending on what happens between now and then.

Don't let the Virginia avi fool ya. I was born and raised in the garden state (NJ-07), and I keep close tabs on the political happenings through my friends from home, nearly all of which are involved in their county democratic parties. I know the state well.

Leaving DeSantis aside, since his career is unlikely to recover, Haley absolutely is a terrible fit. Her hardcore fiscal conservatism won't fly anywhere outside of the skylands and the shore. She blocked medicaid expansion in her state while she was governor! As for her social conservatism, she is very anti-choice, and not being a Mike Pence-level zealot isn't enough to make her palatable to the suburban swing voters necessary to keep NJ close. She is substantially more socially conservative than Hugin, who was unable hold Bob Menedez(!) under a double-digit win.

If you want to argue that she's a better fit for the state than someone like Ted Cruz, sure. But there is no national Republican other than Kasich who could keep New Jersey close during a Presidential election, and no Republican on the planet who could carry it under the current coalitions.

I'm originally from NJ-07 as well! I think if Larry Hogan managed to get the GOP nomination, he would likely do pretty well in the state. And Haley, in addition to being less obnoxious about her conservatism than someone like Pence or Cruz, is still probably a better fit for the state than Trump given that she is far less toxic to moderate suburban women. Especially if she runs against a weak candidate like Hillary or Bernie.

And to be fair, Hugin did run in a blue wave year. Steve Lonegan, an ardent Tea Partier who brought in Rick Perry and Sarah Palin to campaign with him, lost by the same amount in the 2013 special despite being a much worse candidate and running against a stronger opponent in Booker.

FIrst, what part of NJ-07 are you from? I'm from the Union suburbs. Second, I think we're mostly on the same page, but if you're running Haley instead of Trump then I think you wind up with something like the Murphy-Guadagno map, where Haley does worse in South Jersey than Trump but better in the North Jersey suburbs. That said, I don't think it's possible for a Republican in a federal race to lose Somerset County by only 4 points now.

Hogan would do well in New Jersey, but the Republican Party nominating Larry Hogan is just a bridge too far into fantasy,

[Roll Roons]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

You don't think someone like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis is a good fit for NJ?

Those hardcore social conservatives are terrible fit for New Jersey. In terms of where the persuadable voters are, Trump is one of the better GOP candidates for the state, hence his unusually strong performance in South Jersey. North Jersey - where the population is - can't be won by a Republican under any circumstances, and thus the state is unwinnable.

Haley and DeSantis aren’t exactly hardcore social conservatives in the same way as someone like Pence. On social issues, they strike me as similar to Chris Christie, who did, of course, get elected and re-elected as governor. As far as Republicans go, their best chance would be with Hogan, but Haley isn’t a terrible fit either and could keep it to single digits in 2024 or 2028 depending on what happens between now and then.

Don't let the Virginia avi fool ya. I was born and raised in the garden state (NJ-07), and I keep close tabs on the political happenings through my friends from home, nearly all of which are involved in their county democratic parties. I know the state well.

Leaving DeSantis aside, since his career is unlikely to recover, Haley absolutely is a terrible fit. Her hardcore fiscal conservatism won't fly anywhere outside of the skylands and the shore. She blocked medicaid expansion in her state while she was governor! As for her social conservatism, she is very anti-choice, and not being a Mike Pence-level zealot isn't enough to make her palatable to the suburban swing voters necessary to keep NJ close. She is substantially more socially conservative than Hugin, who was unable hold Bob Menedez(!) under a double-digit win.

If you want to argue that she's a better fit for the state than someone like Ted Cruz, sure. But there is no national Republican other than Kasich who could keep New Jersey close during a Presidential election, and no Republican on the planet who could carry it under the current coalitions.

I'm originally from NJ-07 as well! I think if Larry Hogan managed to get the GOP nomination, he would likely do pretty well in the state. And Haley, in addition to being less obnoxious about her conservatism than someone like Pence or Cruz, is still probably a better fit for the state than Trump given that she is far less toxic to moderate suburban women. Especially if she runs against a weak candidate like Hillary or Bernie.

And to be fair, Hugin did run in a blue wave year. Steve Lonegan, an ardent Tea Partier who brought in Rick Perry and Sarah Palin to campaign with him, lost by the same amount in the 2013 special despite being a much worse candidate and running against a stronger opponent in Booker.

FIrst, what part of NJ-07 are you from? I'm from the Union suburbs. Second, I think we're mostly on the same page, but if you're running Haley instead of Trump then I think you wind up with something like the Murphy-Guadagno map, where Haley does worse in South Jersey than Trump but better in the North Jersey suburbs. That said, I don't think it's possible for a Republican in a federal race to lose Somerset County by only 4 points now.

Hogan would do well in New Jersey, but the Republican Party nominating Larry Hogan is just a bridge too far into fantasy,

Short Hills! And yeah exactly. It's about finding the right balance between WWC voters in the South and moderate suburbanites in the North. It's difficult, but I think it'll eventually happen. Possibly in 2032, and maybe earlier than that in a gubernatorial race.

[vileplume]

2040s at the earliest but who knows

I could just about see 2032.

2020 - Biden wins in a landslide flipping Texas and Georgia. Democrats also take congress and able to begin to enact much of their agenda.
2024 - Republicans fail to learn the lessons of 2020 and nominate a Trump-like candidate but without his charisma, ability to inspire a devoted core following or to get away with lying so easily. Harris wins the biggest Democratic victory since LBJ (and the biggest overall since Reagan). GOP driven back to the most ultra-conservative states e.g. Wyoming, West Virginia, Arkansas. Democrats continue enacting their policy agenda, a new political era has well and truly dawned.
2028 - Harris easily wins reelection but by a bit smaller margin. The GOP finally realises they have to adjust their platform for the new political reality to appeal to non-white voters and people living in suburbs. However the GOP is still too distrusted and Harris too popular for the party to capture the presidency. The North East does trend sharply Republican with the party flipping New Hampshire and Maine, the South by contrast carries on trending Democratic with the GOP jettisoning religious/race wedge issues.
2032 - The Democrats finally run out of steam (as is inevitable), they've done most of what they set out to, and the electorate is getting sick of them and looking for a change. The GOP nominates a popular, charismatic Northeastern governor who wins the election easily with the memory of the disastrous Trump presidency finally fading from popular consciousness. States such as New Jersey and Connecticut flip GOP for the first time since '88.

[Redban]

When the GOP can get a solid nationwide win. Since Bush in 1988, 2004 is the only election where they won the national popular vote. And NJ was a swing state then, right?

So the GOP needs to get a solid 4-5% win.

[Spark]

2030s probably.

[Ferguson97]

Any Republican that could conceivably win New Jersey would never win the Republican primary.