CT Redistricting 2020

[S019]

So, CT will be interesting. If the Dems do manage to get the 2/3rd's majority in both legislatures, I imagine they'll do something about CT-02, maybe give it an arm into Hartford or split it and reorient the seats. If they don't, since maps needs a 2/3rd's majority, they will likely need to be some compromise with Republicans or it will go to a commission. In which case a compromise map is drawn, maybe the compromise here is to shore up the 5th, while making the 2nd more Republican, but I'm genuinely not sure what happens here.

[S019]

So, I tried playing around and made this map, which keeps incumbent residencies, makes Courtney's seat more Republican and shores up Hayes, not sure if this what would ultimately happen, but it could be one of the possible compromises that occurs if indeed the 2022 maps are passed by a 2/3rd's majority.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cddabc31-cd2f-4b0d-8d61-1fe8cd531d7d

[S019]

No evidence, but just a gut feeling that the Democrats would be far more likely to give Courtney a competitive seat than Hayes, given Courtney plans to leave soon, and he is safe as long as he's there, while Hayes will be around for a while. Even if Courtney doesn't leave, this is still the smart play, as he is very popular in that seat, and if he does, Hayes gets priority over a TBD freshman.

[S019]

The Connecticut Democrats would be fools to cede over a seat to the GOP. There's no need. Currently East Connecticut's 2nd is the most competitive district and Joe Courtney has it locked down. They should leave it mostly the same, though I think to make sure the northwestern 5th is safe for Jahana Hayes, they could replace some liberal territory from John Larson's district (it's got a D+11 CPVI, compared to the 5th's D+2 CPVI) and hand over some reddish area to Larson's district. I don't know. In all honesty, even the 4th is pretty liberal (it went for Biden by eleven points), but to be in the safe side, they can do what I just said. They could make CT01, say, D+9 instead of D+11, and simultaneously make CT05 D+4 rather than D+2.

In reference to your maps, #1 (incumbent protection - in other words, 5 blue seats) is the best choice for the party (obviously). I'd say map #2 (a 4.5-0.5 map) is the fairest and most reasonable. #3 would honestly be like the Connecticut Democrats trying to help their counterparts. A 4-1 map is obviously very favourable to the GOP, and is the sort of thing Republicans might do if they could control redistricting in CT. There's no way the Connecticut Democrats would let it pass (why would they give the GOP a free district for no reason whatsoever?). So #3 is impossible, #1 is probably the first pick of Connecticut Democrats (and similar to what they will try to get passed), and #2 might happen if Connecticut Democrats have to compromise with Connecticut Republicans for some reason (though I'd say even #2 can be easily averted by the Democrats).

Democrats might not have a chance, they fell short of the 2/3 threshold needed to pass their maps without Republican approval, meaning some concession to Republicans is likely necessary in order for maps to pass the legislature.