CT Redistricting 2020

[Sol]

Here's CT with a minority-influence district. Not required for the VRA and probably not even a very good map, but I thought it was interesting that it was possible.



Here's the link.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There's a more effective version of that if you utilise Hartford, certainly if you're using 2018 data:



Link here: https://davesredistricting.org/join/661cd593-7a70-4f46-a51e-4d7604cd8cf2.

No municipalities are split, population deviations are kept under a thousand and the blue district is 49.5% white by CVAP.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at a fair map, which also happens to be essencially a "least change" map:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/14096a15-401b-47fb-991c-922b251c5532

CT-01: D+14 (65D-35R composite)
CT-02: D+3 (54D-46R composite)
CT-03: D+10 (61D-39R composite)
CT-04: D+9 (60D-40R composite)
CT-05: R+2 (50D-50R composite)

So from what I can see basically 3 Safe D districts, 1 Likely D district and 1 tossup, though I assume CT-02 and CT-05 are trending R?

[S019]

So, CT will be interesting. If the Dems do manage to get the 2/3rd's majority in both legislatures, I imagine they'll do something about CT-02, maybe give it an arm into Hartford or split it and reorient the seats. If they don't, since maps needs a 2/3rd's majority, they will likely need to be some compromise with Republicans or it will go to a commission. In which case a compromise map is drawn, maybe the compromise here is to shore up the 5th, while making the 2nd more Republican, but I'm genuinely not sure what happens here.

[S019]

So, I tried playing around and made this map, which keeps incumbent residencies, makes Courtney's seat more Republican and shores up Hayes, not sure if this what would ultimately happen, but it could be one of the possible compromises that occurs if indeed the 2022 maps are passed by a 2/3rd's majority.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cddabc31-cd2f-4b0d-8d61-1fe8cd531d7d

[Nyvin]

CT Dems came up 1 seat short of 2/3's majority in State Senate and 5 seats short in State House.

Think it's possible to get 1 GOP senator and 5 GOP reps to agree to pass their maps?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CT Dems came up 1 seat short of 2/3's majority in State Senate and 5 seats short in State House.

Think it's possible to get 1 GOP senator and 5 GOP reps to agree to pass their maps?

It might be possible if CT Ds convinced them to support Dem maps in return to giving them seats that were safer and/or to their specification.

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

[kwabbit]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

Dems would never agree to that.

[Nyvin]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[Roll Roons]

I was able to make a district that's around R+4 in 2012-2016 PVI: https://davesredistricting.org/join/5ace61fc-213f-4b11-af9d-8c94503ee1eb

It probably went for Biden given his very strong performance in the state, but could be well within reach for a strong Republican in 2022. If this district had existed in 2012, Andrew Roraback would have almost certainly won.

[lfromnj]

I was able to make a district that's around R+4 in 2012-2016 PVI: https://davesredistricting.org/join/5ace61fc-213f-4b11-af9d-8c94503ee1eb

It probably went for Biden given his very strong performance in the state, but could be well within reach for a strong Republican in 2022. If this district had existed in 2012, Andrew Roraback would have almost certainly won.

Looks a bit cherry picked but yeah basically you just have one eastern CT district, one that covers the SW corner, one in New Haven. Then a leftovers district in the NW that takes the remaining population from the previous 3.

Waterbury should still be in the NW district as far though and that makes it a decent bit more D leaning. However a swing seat in the NW makes some sense.The current 5th is moderately gerrymandered  to have New Britain.

[Roll Roons]

I was able to make a district that's around R+4 in 2012-2016 PVI: https://davesredistricting.org/join/5ace61fc-213f-4b11-af9d-8c94503ee1eb

It probably went for Biden given his very strong performance in the state, but could be well within reach for a strong Republican in 2022. If this district had existed in 2012, Andrew Roraback would have almost certainly won.

Looks a touch cherry picked but yeah basically you just have one eastern CT district, one that covers the SW corner, one in New Haven. Then a leftovers district in the NW that takes the remaining population from the previous 3.

Yeah, I made this map a while ago. My goal was to create a Republican-leaning district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

I managed to create an R+6 seat by working from this map.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/4e02fe26-15d7-4416-9fc3-3c3e1f5fb0fa

[Nyvin]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

I managed to create an R+6 seat by working from this map.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/4e02fe26-15d7-4416-9fc3-3c3e1f5fb0fa

Sure, if Republicans held 2/3's majorities in both chambers they might get a map like that passed...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

I managed to create an R+6 seat by working from this map.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/4e02fe26-15d7-4416-9fc3-3c3e1f5fb0fa

Sure, if Republicans held 2/3's majorities in both chambers they might get a map like that passed...

I wasn't saying it was a politically realistic map. I was just saying it was geographically possible.

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
R+4 probably goes narrowly to Biden, tossup.

[kwabbit]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

[Idaho Conservative]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

Yeah, gonna be hard to make a tossup seat when the 2020 map looks like this -



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-connecticut.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
R+4 probably goes narrowly to Biden, tossup.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bc7f4fc-f544-4a61-95dd-dffcc95dacc2
here is a map that fulfills the goal of your map, without splitting any towns.
Tbh, I prefer it to the current map, since it avoids ugliness and is closer to the state's overall lean.

[lfromnj]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

It doesn't take Hartford but clearly has a gerrymandered arm to take New Britain.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

It doesn't take Hartford but clearly has a gerrymandered arm to take New Britain.

Yeah, no dispute there whatsoever.
New Britain's position in the 5th is an artifact from when Nancy L. Johnson, the former Republican congresswoman (served 1985-2007) was in the district. She won New Britain almost every election, and insisted it be added in the new 5th; it voted against her in 2004 and in 2006 helped send her into retirement.

After she left the scene, New Britain now became sort of a firewall territory for Dems, helping ensure they would win any close races. In 2012 Liz Esty narrowly won over Andrew Roraback partially due to its inclusion, and in the 2010s New Britain's role has mainly been to keep the CD in the Dem column. Democrats fought tooth and nail to keep it in the 5th in 2011-2012, and they were correct to think that its inclusion in CT-05 would be critical.

I don't see them changing their thinking much in this department. New Britain, despite its popular GOP mayor and GOP control of the organs of local govt there, still gives Dem outsize margins on federal level. In 2020, New Britain gave Biden a more than 2-to-1 raw margin, and over 8,000 vote plurality, out of slightly over 25k votes cast. The arm to New Britain started off an incumbent dummymander, and now is a simple partisan gerrymander.
The environment changes, and the parties, but the lines remain the same, for differing reasons.

[kwabbit]

Hopefully Republicans will use their leverage to demand a tossup seat

There are simply not enough Republican areas to create a tossup unless you want to make an ugly snake.  CT is pretty Democrat and there isn't much of a urban/rural divide as you'd see elsewhere. You probably make a Lean D and 4 Safe but not a tossup.

I was just saying un-gerrymander CT-5.  A compact western CT seat would be a tossup with a slight R PVI.  I wasn't suggesting and oddly shaped district.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce93191-9611-44a8-98f3-f76152555ae9
The wesrtern district is compact and R+4

The current CT-5 isn't really a gerrymander, either though. It's more compact than your example. Either way, Courtney would in all likelihood carry any CT-5 drawn unless it's a big R wave.

LOL you are wrong on both counts.  The current CT-5 purposefully takes in blue Hartford precincts to make it more Dem and Courtney doesn't represent CT-5

My bad I was double confused lol. Read Western as Eastern.