Bold Predictions for November

[S019]

Going to mix in some down ballot races:

Democrats win at least one Georgia Senate seat
Susan Collins wins re-election
Texas is a closer state than New Hampshire (for both Senate and President)
Cory Gardner underperforms Trump in Colorado
Collin Peterson loses by less than David Valadao does
Biden wins Georgia, but loses Florida

[S019]

- Georgia votes to the left of Minnesota, Biden wins GA.
- Arizona votes to the left of Maine
- Arizona is not close at all.
- Wisconsin votes at least 10 points to the right of the nation
- McGrath defeats McConnell in Kentucky (although only in case Biden wins the election…). Regardless, she will be very close.
- Democrats take back the senate.
- Surprisingly low turn-out among minority voters and the youth, and those who do swing towards Trump. Biden makes improvements among the elderly and as expected college educated voters.
- TX is not close at all, not within 5 points.
- Cunningham, Gideon, Bullock, McGrath win while the president win those states, although in case of NC and ME very narrowly. Kelly and Hickenlooper obviously win as well. Georgia senate races i won't call.
- SC senate race is surprisingly close at well, within 5 points. SC general race is within 10 points.
- Biden wins the PV by 5, but that might not be enough. Trump just needs one toss-up state. Biden needs both. Those states i won't call. At least i can't be blamed for calling the election wrongly. I think they're tilt Biden in this scenario, ensuring Biden has a sweaty night.
- In this scenario MI (or GA) ends up being the tipping point state.
- I think MI votes to the right of PA, so that if Trump needs one of the two. Michigan would secure him the election, but it could end up voting to the left of GA, in which GA would be the tipping point state.
- AZ, NH, NV, CO, VA, NM are not close at all.
- IA votes 20 points to the right of the nation, maybe even 25, overtaking AK, MT and MO.

Plausible

Sigh, WI, and ME will go D before AZ.

WI voted D in 1976 Carter, 1988 Dukakis, 1992-96 Clinton, 2000-04 Gore and Kerry and Obama 2008-12, it's a Union state

Disagree, WI will likely vote right of AZ, agreed on ME, though, by 2024, ME will be right of AZ, though.