2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

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Also a bunch of visualizations dropped showing possible configurations for the seats: https://www.wedrawthelinesca.org/10_13_21_handouts

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Ami Bera in trouble?

https://twitter.com/spamalaanderzon/status/1448420877486333953

Unsurprising, his seat was always going to need to expand

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Garcia gets a slightly redder seat, but still pretty blue by replacing Simi Valley with a chunk of Kern County. Only a matter of time before he loses.

what was this seat on Biden numbers?

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https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1448495269591531522

Looks like McClintock was axed, assuming we still get the expected lost seat from LA, this means we'll need a new seat somewhere.

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From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

What is the partisan lean for CA-10 and where would Garamendi run and what would the partisan lean of his seat be?

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From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

What is the partisan lean for CA-10 and where would Garamendi run and what would the partisan lean of his seat be?

CA-10 becomes Trump+1 per Wasserman and I honestly think Garamendi is due to retire, being 76 and all.

I read upthread that 1 was Lean R, but what exactly is the Trump margin and could a Garamendi v LaMalfa election be in the cards, or would he not want to fight such an election?

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How did CA-48 become more GOP while losing south OC and becoming more working class?

It picked up Asian cities that swung heavily to Trump such as Westminster.

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Sadhwani is the obvious Dem hack on the commission.

https://twitter.com/eqca/status/1469467044231860224
Seems like a large part of her map proposal came from this one.

More than just her. Check out some of the others, for instance:

Isra is currently a Senior Research Evaluation Specialist with Santa Clara County’s Division of Equity and Social Justice. In this role, she leads the intersectional research efforts across the 7 different offices within the Division: Offices of Women’s Policy, Immigrant Relations, Cultural Competency, Labor Standard Enforcement, LGBTQ Affairs, 2020 Census and Gender-Based Violence Prevention. Previously, Isra served as the lead evaluator for the County’s Tobacco Control Program. She has worked for over 9 years in the community organizing, research and policy, to address the inequities related to adverse health impacts from tobacco products in a variety of places including, California Youth Advocacy Network, Stanford Prevention Research Center, Tobacco Related Disease Research Program at the University of California Office of the President, The Truth Initiative and her academic alma maters. Isra earned her A.A. from De Anza Community College, her B.S. in Health Science from San José State University, and her Masters in Public Health in Epidemiology/Biostatistics from U.C. Berkeley. In her free time, Isra enjoys hiking and spending time with her family and friends. She is registered to vote as No Party Preference and lives in San José.

A "independent" who works for the Santa Clara County Division of Equity and Social Justice

Linda Akutagawa is President and CEO of LEAP (Leadership Education for Asian Pacifics). A passionate social entrepreneur for over 25 years and beneficiary of LEAP’s leadership programming, she is a believer in the value, and urgent need, for diverse, equitable, and inclusive leadership. Through LEAP, Linda has dedicated herself to continuing the cycle of leadership development and inspiring Asian and Pacific Islanders to step up to leadership roles across sectors, industries, and communities.

She is the Chair of the Alliance for Board Diversity and an appointed member of the California Department of Insurance Diversity Task Force. She is also a member of the Asian/Asian American Institute Advisory Board at California State University at Los Angeles as well as a Board member of the Asian Pacific Planning and Policy Council.

She’s a nationally recognized speaker and facilitator on leadership, diversity, equity, and inclusion, nonprofits, and board governance. Linda received her B.S. in International Business with a minor in Economics from California State University at Los Angeles. She has a Certificate in Nonprofit Board Consulting through Boardsource. She is married and a furmom to her cockapoo and aunty to eleven nephews and nieces. She is registered as No Party Preference.

Another "independent" who leads the "Alliance for Board Diversity" and is a member of a state diversity task force.

A century ago, Dr. Yee’s ancestors left southern China for “Gum Saan” (“Gold Mountain”). They settled in Oakland, where his parents and then he and his brothers were all born and raised.

He graduated from Oakland High School, UC Berkeley (BS), Dallas Theological Seminary (ThM), and the Graduate Theological Union (PhD), where his research focused on sociolinguistic aspects of liturgical and free worship. He has taught mostly for Fuller Theological Seminary and especially enjoys teaching his class on Oakland for St. Mary’s College.

He’s the author of Worship on the Way (2012), which explores worship in Asian and South East Asian North American churches. He pastored a church for ten years and is active in his present multicultural church community, which wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness.

He’s a longtime history docent at the Oakland Museum of California, with a special interest in the state’s indigenous peoples. He was the first board secretary for Habitat for Humanity East Bay (now East Bay/Silicon Valley). An avid marathon runner, he volunteers with Running for a Better Oakland, a youth sports and scholarship program.

He lives in Oakland with his wife, Dr. Lisa Yee, who is a physician at a community health center. He is registered with the Republican Party.

A "Republican" who "wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness."

Oh, and fun follow-up: Sadhwani literally has Latinx in her bio

Sara Sadhwani is an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College specializing in American politics, racial and ethnic politics, and public policy. Her research has been published in the peer reviewed journals such as the Journal of Politics, Political Behavior, California Journal of Politics and Policy, and Politics, Groups, and Identities. Her analysis of Asian American and Latinx voting behavior in California elections has been featured in the Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, Vox, NBC News, HuffPost and many others.

I intentionally didn't mention any of the Democrats here but when 2 of your independents are openly very left wing and one of your Republicans is clearly a Republican-In-Name-Only it should be no surprise that the commission is drawing maps like this.

If the commission actually wanted to draw a D gerrymander, then they wouldn't be leaving Issa in a winnable seat and moving Porter's seat well to the right.