If this is really 2008 this could be an apt analogy:
Arizona= Colorado
Georgia= Virginia
Texas= North Carolina
Ohio = Missouri
? = Indiana
The only equivalent for IN, as in a state that votes Dem out of left field, but then goes back to being Republican is probably MT, KS, or AK, and I doubt any of them vote R for President, but I could see all 3 be D for Sen., but they all could be close for President, so actually I'd say OH/IA as Indiana, and MT/KS/AK as MO, as OH/IA are likelier to vote D than MT/KS/AK for President, but probably not for Senate.
