I voted "tilt R" and as of right now appear to be the only one who thinks MO is anything but "likely R" or "safe R." Obama/Biden overperformed in MO in 2008, nearly winning the state, and MO remains one of the midwestern red states where Democrats have been able to win national office in certain circumstances (Governor Jay Nixon, Senator Claire MCCaskill). "Tilt R" suggests Trump is favored, but whether the Democratic candidate is Biden or Sanders, I do not expect it to be a landslide for Trump. A Trump win of 52% or less makes sense to me.
MO has been zooming right since 2000, in there straight elections (2000, 2004, and 2008), it was considered a tossup, here are the PV's for those years (D+0.5, R+2.4, D+7.3) Now consider, the PV moved 2.9 points right, Missouri swung 3.86 points to the right, when the PV moved 9.7 points left, Missouri swung 7.06 points to the left, in 2012 the PV was D+3.9, so the nation swung 3.4 points to the right, but Missouri swung 9.48 points to the right, in 2016, the PV was D+2.1, so the nation swung 1.8 points to the right, but Missouri swung 9.08 points to the right, in all of these elections MO voted to the right of the nation, and note how around 2012, Missouri begins swinging much more to the right. Claire McCaskill's loss was the icing on the cake of Missouri's transformation into a Safe R state, also in 2022, Nicole Gallaway is is in big trouble, if she loses, MO will have gone from a swing state to completely red in a little over a decade
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