ND Governor 2020 Megathread: Battle for the Peace Garden State

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Found this interesting

http://www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/01/14/congress-lobbying-revolving-door-republicans-democrats-1098626

Especially this:

Heitkamp has no plans to become a lobbyist, according to Tessa Gould, her former chief of staff.

This is also interesting

https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/government-and-politics/4556122-heitkamp-urges-public-involvement-political-front

However, she is planning to make "some announcement next week" about future plans, she said, "and I don't want to take away from that."

This is an old article, but this did come right after she declined running for governor

Could the Democratic establishment push her to do it, she has all the makings of a candidate

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Burgum Approval: 53% Approve, 22% Disapprove (Jan 2019)

Heitkamp Approval (leaving office): 42% Approve, 45% Disapprove (Jan 2019)

Source: Morning Consult

Safe R for now

If she runs, I’ll move it to Lean R

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Remember that Heitkamp already ran for governor once unsuccessfully back in 2000. Similarly, Claire McCaskill, who ran unsuccessfully for governor of MO in 2004, shot down the prospect of her running for that office again.

McCaskill now has a cozy job as a TV pundit, what even is Heitkamp doing nowadays

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Why would Heitkamp make this Lean R? She lost by double digits in a good year for Democrats, and look at her favorability versus that of Burgum. Safe R no matter what.

Gubernatorial races are not as polarized as Senate races

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Why would Heitkamp make this Lean R? She lost by double digits in a good year for Democrats, and look at her favorability versus that of Burgum. Safe R no matter what.

Gubernatorial races are not as polarized as Senate races

Okay, but why would a very popular incumbent governor lose to a moderately unpopular challenger?

She’s much better than Marvin Nelson, Tracy Potter, and other such sacrificial lambs put up by ND Dems, viable Democratic candidates seem to have a floor around 42% in downballot ND races, Heitkanp can certainly emphasize her moderateness, and Burgum could be caught off guard, given that he’s not expecting a serious challenge, in a similar way that Rick Berg was asleep at the wheel. This being a gubernatorial race, makes it much more competitive than a Senate race. A Democrat can win in ND, but not on the federal level, anymore