AL-SEN: It’s Tuberville

[S019]

He will do worse than Heitkamp

I think he loses by 20

He will be not be Blanched and outrun the Dem nominee by 10-15 pts, but will lose very badly

[S019]

He will do worse than Heitkamp

I think he loses by 20

He will not be Blanched and will outrun the Dem nominee by 10-15 pts, but will lose very badly

Blanche Lincoln lost by 20.9%, so you're saying he would be Blanched then.

In 2010, AR was still quite Democratic, a Blanching in 2020 Alabama would have to be at least a 30-35 point loss

[S019]

The AL GOP will do ridiculous amounts of opposition research to make sure that Roy Moore never wins any of their nominations ever again.

[S019]

Moore 50-48

It is a presidential year and Trump would endorse him. Meanwhile, McConnell begins to look for a primary Challenger in 20206 after Moore wins

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Looks reasonable, flip Mobile, Bryne represents it in Congress and has good name recognition there

[S019]

Oh boy...

I’m really hoping ALGOP is stupid enough to renominate the kiddie diddler. It’s Jones’s only real hope.

Even if he wins (*shudders*) I’m not even sure the Senate would seat a Senator Moore. Majority Leader Schumer definitely wouldn’t, and IIRC there were rumblings that McConnell wouldn’t in 2017 so idk if that holds true if there’s a GOP senate in 2021.

You do know how hard it is for Dems to win Sen majority in 2020 right, they have to flip CO, NC and two of GA/MT/ME/TX/IA, also they lose AL. If they win AL, they do probably have a Senate majority, because there would be a big wave

[S019]

https://twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1118288941415837702

Well well.

Are we actually trying to lose this seat

Anyway

Safe R---->Likely R


Will move back to Safe, if Moore is not nominated, will.move to Lean, of Moore is nominated

[S019]

Here's a question: How many of you think that Doug Jones would have won if control of the Senate had come down to this race in 2017? I'm guessing some Republicans who sat out would've held their nose and voted for Moore if it meant preventing the Democrats from gaining control of the Senate.

I doubt it would have made a difference. The unpopularity of the Tax Bill Republicans were trying to pass at the time was almost as much, if not more of a factor in Jones winning as the pedophilia issues with Roy Moore in my opinion.

The tax bill as well as Obamacare repeal were popular in AL, Jones won, because Republicans stayed home, in a Presidential year, they wouldn't, and Moore would win a GE by 5-7, if Moore is not the nominee Jones will be lucky to lose by less than 16

[S019]

So, uh, it looks like Jones has a primary challenge:

https://twitter.com/sean_yhn/status/1125839327576109058

As if Jones needed any more trouble.

Likely R---->Safe R

Now, even Roy Moore can't save Jones, if he has to deal with a primary challenge from a state legislator

He is going to Blanched, unless Moore is the nominee (in which case, he will be Heitkamped), he should just retire, why run a campaign, that you know you will lose

[S019]

Sessions considering:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/442770-sessions-not-ruling-out-2020-challenge-against-jones-in-alabama-senate-race

https://yellowhammernews.com/reports-jeff-sessions-not-ruling-out-2020-senate-bid/


Trip Pittman considering:

https://yellowhammernews.com/former-state-senator-trip-pittman-on-2020-u-s-senate-run-im-considering-it/

[S019]

I would like to see a poll of head to head matchups between Jones and all the Republicans. I wouldn't even be that surprised if Moore doesn't do much worse than the others.

Yeah, the thing that many people don't understand is that very few republican voters went for Jones in 2017, republican voters who didn't like Moore simply stayed at home

Basically this


Likely R with Moore
Safe R without


Let's not forget this is Alabama, and there are a decent amount of deplorables, who will back Moore, and then there are the straight ticket R voters, special election turnout is always weird, Jones should be dead in the water with a GE electorate.

[S019]

Can this man, just go away already

[S019]

I HATE MOORE !

BECAUSE OF YOU, ROY MOORE, ALABAMA HAS A DEMOCRATIC SENATOR !!

FTFY
This (Morally and politically correct, and does not want to be moderated)

[S019]

He wants "more personal contact." Wow, he's really dumb.

He clearly doesn't realize why he lost

[S019]

I don’t think Moore will be the nominee this time, and if he is not I will want the democrats to give  Jones a canteen and a pistol and set him loose, but if Moore gets the nom again, I am going to go to the mat for Jones, and I hope dems will follow. Moore has to get every last ounce of fight we got if he is the nominee.

As progressive as I am, you're not going to get much better than Doug Jones, I can admit that.

Jones campaigned as a progressive, but unfortunately he's decided to go down the Moderate Hero route with his votes in the Senate.

Well, he does still wanna try to win re-election.

It's so stupid though. Is he gonna win as an open socialist? Probably not, but he stands the same odds there as he does running a Richard Shelby circa 1992 campaign. If anything, at least the first one would help him turn out a base.

Is bad that I laughed when I read this

He could win as a Moderate Hero against Moore

He won't win as a socialist against anyone, because it's Alabama

[S019]

As I have said before, Doug Jones sadly won't win, unless Moore is nominated, but the thought of a possible Senator Moore is a terrifying prospect. Hopefully, Jones is appointed as Attorney General in the next Democratic administration

[S019]

I think the ad's point is to show that Jones is a Democrat, but people already know that, so it isn't really a particularly effective attack. The NRSC would be better served to point out Jones' voting record, given all of the coverage of the 2017 special and the high profile nature of this year's Senate race, I'm sure anyone who Alabama, who does not know that their Senator is a Democrat is living under a rock, though given the NRSC has historically been incompetent, I shouldn't be shocked by these weak attacks.