KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[S019]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

Don't get me wrong, it would be more competitive with him in the race. He is just about the worst candidate that Republicans can get. But I would not expect it to play out how the gubernatorial election did. Gubernatorial and Senate elections are often two completely different dynamics.

The statewide margin results of the 2016 Governors Race and 2018 Senate Race in Indiana, Missouri, and Montana were all within just half of a single percentage point from eachother. Manchin did worse because he was stupid to vote for Kavanaugh. Heitkamp did better because Democrats did not attempt to contest the states Governors race in 2016.

Governors races have been becoming more and more polarized as a Senate race would be in recent years.

It is pretty clear that the Kavanaugh vote ended Heitkamp's hopes of a comeback and doomed both McCaskill and Donnelly, Bredesen's equivocation on the Kavanaugh issue also doomed him. Also it is clear that the Kavanaugh voted saved Manchin. Also the WV Gov Race was a R v R, because Jim Justice was a DINO who actually endorsed Trump in 2016. Also KS with Kobach is still Lean R, it would be interesting with Greg Orman or Mark Parkinson, though, and Kathleen Sebellius would make it Safe R. Governors races are not becoming polarized. Baker and Warren won in landslides sharing a ballot. While Baldwin won by double digits, Walker lost by the skin of his teeth. Ohio elected Brown and DeWine. In Iowa, GOP won Gov Race, despite losing 3 out of 4 Congressional Districts.

[S019]

Nancy Boyda considering

A Democrat who lost reelection in 2008, even Kobach would beat her


Tilt/Lean R with Kobach
Safe R without Kobach

If Boyda is the nominee

Lean R with Kobach
Safe R without Kobach

[S019]

Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

Nancy Boyda is also running, so she may become the Democratic front-runner

[S019]

The KS GOP moderate branch needs to be cleansed with fire, and that's the end of it. Tim Huelskamp 2020.

Well, I mean, that's what happened under Brownback, and the moderate Republicans simply began voting with Democrats to block his Tea Party-esque proposals, not to mention the "tax experiment," which made Brownback, one of the country's most unpopular governors. If you kick the moderate Republicans out or make them feel like they don't belong in the GOP, they will just start voting with Democrats, or if they are voters, rather than officeholders, they will vote for Democrats.

[S019]

Marshall and Kobach will vote the same anyways, I'd rather take a 50-50 chance of winning the seat rather than a 100% chance of getting only a slightly less offensive Republican, that's a gamble that I'm willing to take.

[S019]

Pollsters like Sabato and JHK forecast understating Bullock, Harrison and Bollier's chance, just because Dems will net over 50 seats got a pleasant surprise coming in Nov. Those three are outaising their R opponents

You overestimate Bullock, Harrison, Cunningham and Bollier's chances. They are all running in red states and the only one who might win is Bullock. Remember Bredesen, Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill were all leading in the polls at some point and went on to lose.

North Carolina is not a red state, also KS is independent of the national environment, and Pat Roberts only won by 10 in 2014, if this year does end up a blue wave, which could happen with Trump's bad approvals and the economy tanking, Bollier could win facing Kobach, and probably come within high single digits of Marshall. KS is competitive, because Bollier could face an extraordinarily weak candidate, who does not play well with the moderate wing of the KS GOP, don't forget this is the state that sent Republican Senators like Nancy Kassebaum and Sheila Frahm, but in a Kobach/Brownback type GOP, much of that wing could vote for a centrist/center-left moderate Republican.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266052589835243528

I've been saying this for a long time: Marshall is going to win the primary. They're not going to nominate Kobach again, they know he's a risky bet.

You underestimate the GOP primary electorate's affinity for crazies.

[S019]

This race will probably be competitive with either Kobach or Marshall, I'd say Tilt R with Marshall and Lean D with Kobach, I'm thinking Kobach wins the primary, Marshall is one of this cycle's most overrated candidates.

[S019]

Many people are saying Marshall is an abortionist Never Trumper who loves John Kasich and Mitt Romney.

That's the message of a lot of the Sunflower State PAC ads, it'll be interesting, to see if the Democratic meddling paid off or not.

[S019]

I'm going to be bold and say this is Tilt/Lean R with Marshall, there's reports of Trump's own internals showing a single digit race in Kansas, meaning that this race will be very close with Marshall. Also we have a poll coming soon so let's see what it says, but the people saying "Safe R" are jumping to conclusions far too quickly.

[S019]

Hot-take, this won't hurt Bollier's chances much, she can just say something like a nominee should be considered, but give a non-answer on whether a vote should occur, and then more back to her kitchen-table issue oriented campaign.