BJP wins in 2004

[Newo1981]

I have a feeling Vajpayee would not have led the party into the 2009 GE. He would have led the country for about a decade by that time and would have been in his mid-80s.

Vajpayee was, by my understanding, a relatively moderate voice within the BJP and was also a distinguished and respected national statesman who had been in the public spotlight for over three decades. In other words, he was a known quality and the Indian people largely knew what they were getting when they voted for him

Much would depend, then, on whom his successor was and possibly how much time Vajpayee gave him or her to cultivate a profile and a following before the 2009 general election. If it were someone like L.K. Advani -who indeed did succeed Vajpayee as BJP leader after the 2004 general election -I think the BJP would have likely lost. Although Advani was well-known and already was a national figure and senior cabinet minister, the impression I get is that he is quite a polarizing and divisive figure

It's possible that another cabinet minister could have done a better job as a successor to Vajpayee and kept the BJP in office in 2009 but I really am not familiar with other possible leadership alternatives at the time. I think it would have been too early for Modi, who was still Gujarat Chief Minister and probably nneeded more time to put the controversies of the 2002 Gujarat riots behind him and cultivate the national image and profile that he subsequently did. I do believe, though, that the party would have struggled in the immediate aftermath of a Vajpayee departure

That having been said, and perhaps slightly in contradiction to my last point, I think Vajpayee miht have struggled had he decided to seek a third consecutive term as Prime Minister. 10 years is a long time for one incumbent to remain in office and Vajpayee might have run the risk of being perceived in the same way that Singh was in 2014 -a once good Prime Minister who had hung on for too long and was past his usefulness. Voters may have found it very tempting to opt for a change