Elizabeth Warren 2020 campaign megathread

[dunceDude]

I'm starting to firmly believe that if Warren can survive this primary, she's going to win the general election. Everything about her message (which she is INCREDIBLY good at sticking to) foils Trump in ways Hillary was never able to.

[dunceDude]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1176855337481191424

After three great polls this morning, Warren has become the first person this primary to break 50% in betting odds on Predictit. Those numbers currently:



Warren is being considered by the highest percentage of voters—54%—and her nomination would disappoint only 7%, the lowest in the field. She has the highest enthusiasm, the most level support among different ages, and draws nearly equally from '16 Sanders and Hillary voters. She also just purchased at least 10 million dollars worth of ads in the first 4 states.

Per 538, she leads the Iowa polling average by 2 points and the New Hampshire by 11 points. She is down 5 in Nevada and 22 in South Carolina. She could lead in Nevada within a month or so. The conventional wisdom has written South Carolina off for Warren, but it may become at least competitive. Predict gives her a 25% chance of winning there.

I think we should expect a lot more heat from the Biden and Sanders camps because this is looking very real. It is very auspicious that no one has any great idea how to slow her down.

[dunceDude]

Putting aside what I personally think about her dedication to M4A, Liz's ability to make people see what they want to see regarding her health care plan is a big strategic advantage. Though Liz is not like Trump rhetorically I think they both have this "all things to all people" quality. Remember when Trump was courting party conservatives with a Pence VP while also promising to expand entitlement programs at rallies?

[dunceDude]

https://twitter.com/wideofthepost/status/1183168042920005632?s=21

I like Reid but hopefully he’s wrong here.

Warren didn't support single payer until after Hillary lost. She won't fight very hard to have it passed.

Bernie’s answer to getting it passed with a minority or without blowing up the filibuster is having rallies in Kentucky so......

Bernie would effectively eliminate the filibuster while officially preserving it, see here, though his way does seem overly complicated and just eliminating the filibuster would be preferable.

It's so crazy to me that he came up with this virtually unheard of and often misunderstood plan to do essentially the same thing as nuking the filibuster, when nuking the filibuster JUST broke into the mainstream. Liz got to lead on that issue for free.

[dunceDude]

> be far left
> refuse to vote in Warren vs Trump election
> muh principles
> realize you represent only 5-10% of the dem primary universe and can't even push frontrunners left
> also realize you've gained a reputation for being impossible to please so no one even tries
> forget all this immediately and start the 2024 cycle claiming bernie would have passed m4a

[dunceDude]

Rewatching Kamala's exchange with Warren on banning Trump from twitter, I really noticed how easily Warren can sidestep an attack dog. Kamala had zero control and burned two minutes on glossing up the twitter account while Warren got to pivot to campaign finance overhaul. One reason my confidence in Warren is growing is that she's always implicitly demonstrating how she'll handle Trump next year, and I like her strategy. She understands it's about exposure and she never lets herself go off message as a result. Trump can spend as long as he wants calling her Pocahontas and she can talk about universal child care.

People are starting to look down on Warren's evasiveness but it's one of the things I still like most about her. It shows me that Warren understands the nature of right-wing media, the trap of arguing on Trump's terms, and the electorate's preference for a smart, canny nominee. Considering that the only three to rise quite a bit in the polls so far (Warren, Buttigieg, Yang) are also the three wonkiest/intellectual, maybe dems are most sick of Trump's constant stupidity on basic topics.

[dunceDude]

I didn't see this exchange. Could you post a link to it?

https://twitter.com/dcexaminer/status/1184302312413679616