OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

If the primary last time is anything to go by, the farther right portions of the Ohio Republican Party despise Dolan. To the point where he may draw a conservative third party challenger if he wins. If not, he’d be decently favored in the general though, a bit moreso than a generic Republican would be at this point. We’re still 20 months out, but Brown starts as at least a slight underdog no matter who his opponent is.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Brown and Tester have 50% or better Approvals

Heidi Heitkamp had 60% approvals at this point in 2018 and we all know how that ended. The question is if Brown and Tester will survive the negative barrage of attack ads, and all the available evidence suggests they won’t.

Umm…Trump won North Dakota by over 30 points. He only won Montana by 16 and Ohio by8. Not a fair comparison.

Don't bother. If I remember correctly, this time last year he was saying that there was no way a Democrat could win PA-Sen because it was too red.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I reject the notion that Ramaswamy would make Brown clearly favored. Quite frankly, there's no Republican who wouldn't be likely to defeat Brown next year. Look at 2022.

2022 was a Biden midterm. It’s not at all unexpected that Democrats lost the Senate race. Acting like a state that the Democrats lost by 6 in a Democratic midterm can’t be won by an incumbent is idiotic.

Brown might honestly be an underdog here, but “Look at 2022” is a pretty terrible argument for that position. Either way I can’t see rating this race worse than lean R at this point.