The only "Atlas meme" with regard to this race is that Republicans need to resurrect Ronald Reagan to beat Mark Kelly and that a generic R wouldn’t be capable of doing the job in a neutral/R-leaning environment.
At this point I’m convinced that you’re literally incapable of describing an opinion you disagree with without strawmanning it.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=426793.0 <——— A majority of Atlas calls the race “Tossup”
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=429748.0 <——— Atlas calls the race “Lean D”
Atlas does not think Republicans need a huge wave to win AZ against Mark Kelly. If they’re calling it a tossup (or god forbid, a lean D) race, then they are in fact saying that Republicans have good chances of winning.