2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

If Gabbard doesn't go GOP, will she join the Constitution Party, or the Forward Party?

The Constitution Party hasn't been even vaguely relevant since like 2006, and I doubt that she would fit in with the Forward Party's particular brand of weirdness. I think she's going to stay independent, though I doubt she runs for anything again.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Surely the 13th completely irrelevant leftist splinter group with negligible ballot access will make a huge impact, even though the first 12 didn't. I could see this warranting some attention if it were a merger of existing groups, but as it stands this is yet another group starting from scratch with no ballot access splitting the already tiny pool of socialist voters in the US.

As far as leftist third parties go, there's already:

Green Party
Party for Socialism and Liberation
Peace and Freedom Party
Socialist Workers Party
Socialist Party USA
Socialist Alternative
Socialist Equality Party
Socialist Action Party
Working Class Party
and then like a dozen others which no longer run candidates but claim not to be defunct.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

no one wants your nonsense ramblings

I read this and then died of an irony overdose.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Would the Libertarians even be willing to make him the nominee? The convention was skeptical of Johnson in 2016 and nearly defeated Weld for VP on the floor. That was before the whole Mises Caucus feuding of the last few years. RFK is even less of a Libertarian than Johnson was.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Per the party's twitter, RFK Jr. met with Reform Party leaders.

https://twitter.com/ReformParty

How many states is that? Two from what I’m seeing on Ballotpedia (MS and FL), but that might be outdated.

I know that as late as 2016 there was still some moribund remnant of the Reform Party that was ballot-qualified in New York, but there was some sort of court case over control of the party between people affiliated with the husk of the national party and other individuals. I don't know how it turned out but they definitely don't have ballot access anymore.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Trump and RFK Jr are sparring for the first time

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1752805359276757377

Going to Trump's right on covid will certainly draw more otherwise-Republican voters than otherwise-Democratic ones. I'd be glad if he keeps on this line of attack.

Still not sure if Kennedy draws more from Trump in general or if he has any significant effect in the end though. He would be far from the first independent candidate to make a splash in the polls 10 months out only to lose relevancy by election day.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

A third party candidate who's struggling with ballot access blowing $7,000,000 on a Super Bowl spot has the same energy as an NFT scam project buying advertising space in Times Square to "prove" that they're legit.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I expect the Kennedy campaign to fizzle out to low single digits like every other third party campaign this side of 1996, but I have no trouble imagining him on 51/51 ballots. Johnson managed it in 2016 and he had less money than RFK does now.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Recall that the Libertarians were polling as high as 15% once the nominations were clinched in 2016, too - while RFK Jr is far more well known than Johnson was at this point, he's also at least as crazy, if not more so. I'd take the over on him getting 5% in the general, for sure, but it's a tough road ahead to be anything other than a spoiler.

John Anderson (who I was a volunteer for) was polling as high as 25% in some polls in the middle of 1980.  He ended up with under 7%.

It happens in every presidential election. RedBan is supporting RFK as delusionally as he once supported Trump.

Johnson 2016, Stein 2016, the abortive NeverTrump candidacy that became Evan McMullin's "run", AmericansElect, the Reform Party in 2000 and 1996, Ross Perot in 1992, etc, etc, etc. They all come in well below their peaks by election day, with perhaps the exception of Perot 1996.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Dems are obsessed with stopping 3rd parties which is why less people buy their "democracy" stuff. I've never seen any other political party feel entitled to people's votes.

That might be why certain online types who post on Atlas don't buy it, but that's obviously not something most people care about. A majority of Americans don't even know what ballot access laws are and pick a candidate from one of the two major parties whenever they vote. Being unfair to third parties is something that both major parties do and that few average people notice or care about.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

No Labels has said several times that they want to choose a candidate by late April.

So...like...four weeks from now? Clock's really ticking at this point.

Starting to think No Labels just doesn't run a candidate at all just because no one who is anyone will do it. Either that or they abandon their R Pres D VP strat and pick Joe Cunningham Pres and some R nobody as VP. Cunningham at least seams to actually WANT it, which is more than you can say for just about anyone else.

No Labels is going to fizzle out without a nominee, just like the Americans Elect campaign in 2012, the abortive NeverTrump candidacy in 2016 (which was only belatedly revived with Evan McMullin after the Access Hollywood debacle), and all that stupid talk in 2020 about a moderate Unity Ticket with Romney, Kasich, or Hogan.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

What the hell happened to the Libertarian party? They used to have at least respectable candidates

Wheezing

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2024/05/democratic-party-seeks-project-manager-to-gather-intel-on-third-party-and-independent-candidates-in-removed-ad/

Instead of universal healthcare, expanding Social Security, and a probe into the COVID totalitarianism, the Democrats waste time on this garbage.

You understand that campaigning and governing are two separate things, right?

The perfidious and evil Democrats had the audacity to try to campaign against the people who are running against them. How dare they.