Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I'm expecting a Youngkin sweep, but I don't know if he has what it takes to win Virginia Beach back; it has been swinging towards the Democrats pretty quickly.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

There is literally absolutely nothing of value in the last 3 pages of this thread.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I'm expecting a Youngkin sweep, but I don't know if he has what it takes to win Virginia Beach back; it has been swinging towards the Democrats pretty quickly.

I stand by my July prediction 😤

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

We're all ignoring the real race here. Princess Blanding will sweep the Early and Mail-in Votes and LIBERATE this wonderful state!

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

So is the third party vote going to exceed the margin?

Necessarily. Princess Blanding is going to win after all.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

But... I don't understand. Swing voters don't even know what the exact academic definition of CRT is! I've been informed by Atlas that this somehow means they can't vote based on what their impression of it is.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I'm a Democrat, so I'm obviously very unhappy with the fact that we lost this election. I will say though, I do get a slight consolation in seeing people mock how incredibly wrong NSV was. Watching someone who insufferably and baselessly claims to be right get proven wrong is at least a bit satisfying, even if they theoretically are on the same side as you.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Exit polls of course should be taken with a massive grain of salt (especially the Edison Research ones), but they show Youngkin doing 15 points better than Trump with White Evangelical voters. Democrats' heavy focus on abortion/right to choose likely contributed to this.

Such a shift would easily and clearly explain Youngkin overperforming Trump's SWVA margins, and is a strong sign - especially in such a high turnout election - that Republican margins in rural America (especially in the deep south/great plains) are not yet maxed out.

The rural margins in the deep south are maxed out. They are consistently 70-85% R in the exurban and rural counties in most southern states from South Carolina to TX. The only real exceptions are heavily black rural areas. The evangelicals that swung back R are suburban evangelicals which are a huge block of voters in southern suburbs, especially in GA in TX. In GA, Democrats can at least take solace in the fact that a lot of the gains were thanks to the mobilization of African Americans who are at no risk of swinging GOP. TX Democrats however should be terrified of this result. If this continues, I don't see Abbott winning by less than 13 points and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up over 15.

I’ve said it before many times, but this is wrong. Every time someone says that Republicans are “maxed out” in white rurals, they’re wrong. There’s no reason those counties can’t vote 80-90% R in theory.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Exit polls of course should be taken with a massive grain of salt (especially the Edison Research ones), but they show Youngkin doing 15 points better than Trump with White Evangelical voters. Democrats' heavy focus on abortion/right to choose likely contributed to this.

Such a shift would easily and clearly explain Youngkin overperforming Trump's SWVA margins, and is a strong sign - especially in such a high turnout election - that Republican margins in rural America (especially in the deep south/great plains) are not yet maxed out.

The rural margins in the deep south are maxed out. They are consistently 70-85% R in the exurban and rural counties in most southern states from South Carolina to TX. The only real exceptions are heavily black rural areas. The evangelicals that swung back R are suburban evangelicals which are a huge block of voters in southern suburbs, especially in GA in TX. In GA, Democrats can at least take solace in the fact that a lot of the gains were thanks to the mobilization of African Americans who are at no risk of swinging GOP. TX Democrats however should be terrified of this result. If this continues, I don't see Abbott winning by less than 13 points and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up over 15.

I’ve said it before many times, but this is wrong. Every time someone says that Republicans are “maxed out” in white rurals, they’re wrong. There’s no reason those counties can’t vote 80-90% R in theory.

I don't mind being wrong. I just don't think whites will ever be quite as monolithically R as blacks are D outside of the handful of places in the deep south where this is already the case.

I'm not saying that it will happen, just that it can happen. I keep hearing "Reps are maxed out in the rurals," and it keeps not being true.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

If you think that a candidate making porn isn't going to have an effect on their campaign, you desperately need to log off.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

If you think that a candidate making porn isn't going to have an effect on their campaign, you desperately need to log off.

as long as it was consensual who cares?

You don't need to convince me to vote for her, I still would if I lived in the district. However, this is a thing that a lot of people would care about. Making porn isn't exactly a socially acceptable or popular profession.