will deval patrick win reelection

[Dan the Roman]

Is Cahill running in the primary or the general (and as an Indy or Republican if the general)?

he is running.

on what ticket has yet to be determined.

Recent events(Patrick's cratering popularity, his feuding with the Democratic leadership in the legislature) make a primary challenge more likely in my view. Much of the Democratic establishment wants Patrick gone, and Cahill will have no trouble with money.

Oddly, I think a Cahill primary challenge would increase Patrick's odds of reelection. Cahill would be easy to tar as a hack, and Patrick could run an outsider warring with the hacks campaign in an effort to transfer his unpopularity to the legislature. His advisers seem to be leaning in that direction right now with the threat to veto the budget.

[Dan the Roman]

Oddly, I think a Cahill primary challenge would increase Patrick's odds of reelection. Cahill would be easy to tar as a hack, and Patrick could run an outsider warring with the hacks campaign in an effort to transfer his unpopularity to the legislature. His advisers seem to be leaning in that direction right now with the threat to veto the budget.

I agree with your assessment of how a Cahill primary challenge would play out, but when you say "increasing Patrick's odds of reelection," I ask, as opposed to what scenario? Do you believe Charles Baker or some other Republican white knight could win? I doubt it. We've seen many cases where unpopular incumbent governors of a super-dominant party win re-election all over the country in the past 20 years, that's how this appears to be shaping up. Patrick is vulnerable to the right candidate but I can not conceive of who that person would be.

I actually feel that this election resembles Dukakis' run for a 2nd term in 1978 a lot. A very unpopular Governor, irrelevant opposition party, Democratic legislature and party that are widely viewed as corrupt. What happened then was an outsider, Howie Carr type ran in the primary and shockingly(probably most of all to those who voted for him) beat Dukakis, and then went on to beat the Republican 51-49 in the fall. Cahill is however, not Ed King, he is not an outsider, and therefore not in a strong position to take advantage of Patrick's weaknesses. If Patrick is hackish, Cahill, with his wife is worse. Cahill supports casinos without any of Patrick's reluctance, and he is mainly responsible for the swaptions fiasco.

That said, I would not be so quick to rule out Baker or whoever the Republicans run. Bill Weld in 1990 had never won an office statewide, and his best performance had been a losing AG race which he had received 36% of the vote in. Ditto for Joe Malone that year who had won 34% in a senate race and went on to crush Bill Galvin with 63%. People are in an outsider mood, and the GOP is a viable vehicle, one that was mighty irrelevant in 1990 too. In fact I would argue the more obscure their candidate the better. A Romney rematch, or Scott Brown run would make their candidate the issue. Someone like Brian Lees or Bruce Tarr would be so bland as to be inconsequential except as a means of voting against the status quo.

I share your view of the GOP contenders as being bland non-entities. I don't agree that this means they can't win.

[Dan the Roman]

This seemed like the best place to post this: Perhaps the defining vote pertaining to the 2010 election was held last night.

Mass. Senate approves sales-tax increase

Deval is opposed to the hike, which brings the rate from 5% to 6.25%, but it's going to become law anyway because Democrats in the legislature passed the increase with a veto-proof majority.

Most likely. He will veto anyway, and there is a chance that the outcry could be great enough to cause enough reps to reconsider to uphold the veto.

Ironic, isn't it, that Deval probably wishes there were another five Republicans in the Senate? They have been his strongest allies over the last month.