So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[Dan the Roman]

To be fair saying Georgia started this, while true in the limited sense, ignores the fact that Russia began it when it supported the secession of Georgian territory in 1993. Georgia is quite simply, asserting its sovereignty within its internationally recognized borders.

Then again, that was what Serbia was doing in Kosovo.

I think Georgia is betting that Russia is bluffing, and that they can oust the South Ossetian government in a fait accompli before Russia can do anything. The Russsians realize what they are doing and that they have a choice between doing nothing and overeacting. Right now they are doing nothing while threatening to overreact. We will see if they actually do.

[Dan the Roman]

I think part of the problem on this thread is that we are treating South Ossetia and to a lesser extent Abkhazia as real countries. They are not nor are they normal ethnic enclaves. They are basically mafia regimes that have been kept in power by Russian military force since 1992.  There is no evidence these regimes have any real popular support and I would not be shocked if South Ossetia did in fact nearly collapse in a day without Russian military intervention.

The real problem is that Georgia has decided to call Russia's bluff, only to discover it is not actually a bluff. To withdraw now would be worse than to have never gone in. That at least would have maintained the fiction that Georgia could assert its authority if it wanted to. Backing down now would demonstrate that for practical purposes these territories are independent, and no Georgian leader can do that. Most likely, Saakashvili  is going to stand firm and pray that Bush gives him a face saving way to back down.

[Dan the Roman]

Azerbaijan is actually giving vocal support to Georgia. Not very surprising but does this mean anything?

Well Russia did the same thing to them in the early 1990s over Nagorno karabakh so it makes sense they would have little tolerance for the Russian "we are supporting separatists in your borders under the guise of peacekeepers" game.

Which is really the problem with those who are standing up for Russia here. If it was one or two territories it would be one thing, but Russia has done this in half a dozen different places in the former Soviet Republics, so much so that its becoming a very unfunny joke. I think the Western media right now is the only entity in the world that is taking seriously the claims of Ossetians. And even if we grant that they may have some basic legitimacy, will someone please defend Abkhazia. It doesn't even bother holding rigged elections, and basically is nothing more than a Mafia enclave on the black sea. The very fact that they are willing to join in this little war is all the evidence required.

I doubt this is really about Georgia at all. It is about showing the United States that this NATO expansion stuff is BS, because it shows other Soviet Republics considering membership that it will do absolutely nothing for them in terms of protecting them from Russia.

[Dan the Roman]

On a side note this little adventure has done wonders for Mikhail Saakashvili’s relations with the parliamentary opposition. When last we checked in with them a few months ago they were accusing him of rigging the Presidential elections. Now they are voting him emergency powers.

[Dan the Roman]

Some Georgian athletes at the Olympics have said they are considering joining their army to fight.

The Chinese must be overjoyed with Putin and Saakashvili  right now.

[Dan the Roman]

I am not suprised the Russian Army is having trouble. Its performance in Chechnya was unimpressive, and man for man it is vastly inferior to the Georgian forces.

Unfortunately in the long run this is not a man for man conflict, and the Russian Navy and Air force, both if which have an overwhelming superiority, seem to be begining to tell.

They probably could nominally overrun Georgia if they wanted to.The real question is, have their recent successes made them that foolishly cocky. It is not a fun country to occupy, and I am sure the Turks and Azeris would be happy to keep the Georgian insurgents well-supplied with weapons.

As a serious matter the Russians have blundered in PR by not making a bigger deal out of EU condemnation of the last Presidential elections in Georgia./ If i were the Russian Ambassador facing Saakashvili on TV would hammer home the fact that the same people who are supporting him now cited serious irregularities with his election a few months ago.

[Dan the Roman]

Like I said in the other thread, Georgia is a very key country in that area. Look at where its at. Iran and Iraq are just a skip and a hop away. Georgia had 2,000 troops in Iraq helping us, we owe them help.

If it is limited to air support fine. But if we truly get involved, and I mean in a shooting war with the Russians, whats to stop them from widening the conflict to the Baltic states that are in no position to defend themselves? At the end of the day we can't stop the Russians from doing what they want with air power alone.

[Dan the Roman]

Like I said in the other thread, Georgia is a very key country in that area. Look at where its at. Iran and Iraq are just a skip and a hop away. Georgia had 2,000 troops in Iraq helping us, we owe them help.

If it is limited to air support fine. But if we truly get involved, and I mean in a shooting war with the Russians, whats to stop them from widening the conflict to the Baltic states that are in no position to defend themselves? At the end of the day we can't stop the Russians from doing what they want with air power alone.

But, but... we're America!

We are not superman. We would need approval to use either Turkish, Armenian, Azeri, or Iranian(highly unlikely) airspace. The first three have concrete reasons why they would not want to give us permission to use their airspace to kill Russians, and the later for obvious reasons are enjoying themselves at the moment. Second, this is a lot more like Kosovo in terms of terrain than Gulf War I, and are air strikes weren't particularly effective against the Serbian army. Its unclear how much they would slow down the Russians.

[Dan the Roman]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

Moderate to high.  Russia is scared.

The Defense Ministry claims they have no plans to attack Tblisi, but who knows if they find someone to "invite" them in.